snowlover91 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 00z GFS showed a few potential threats but end of run warms significantly with 850 0C line at the Canadian border. Fortunately it's the GFS and it'll change the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Van Denton mentioned sleet tomorrow night but with how limited the moisture is I'm not concerned with the temp profile. It's not going to be a big deal either way to have a few dry pellets hit the ground. I highly doubt it would be sleet though, temp profiles just don't support it. With .20-.25 in qpf before 12z Thursday it needs to be closely watched here in central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS absolutely torches in the long range. Shows a perfect track rainstorm. Nice. Fab Feb will deliver...lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS is only good when it shows Winter weather! Then it is on to something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Just think, in six months we might be fighting through a major 100 degree heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 Just think, in six months we might be fighting through a major 100 degree heat wave. The first "professional" ¢older and $nowier 2016-17 winter forecasts will be released around this time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I wonder if DT is still barking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The first "professional" ¢older and $nowier 2016-17 winter forecasts will be released around this time as well. Complete with predictions of tree-crashing heavy wet snows for the Deep South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 I wonder if DT is still barking... He was barking up on some random tree this morning on FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Is the 13/14th threat legit? That has us in the single digit days away, finally! Chasing those 10+ day threats gets exhausting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 ....but, "JB" says it will be cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The 6z GFS says upstate SC never goes below 20 right through day 16. I'll go on and say that I think no one outside of the mountains will get over 1/2 inch of snow this winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 That moment when the perfect pattern is so perfect that Cuba takes our storms. You. I like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The 6z GFS says upstate SC never goes below 20 right through day 16. I'll go on and say that I think no one outside of the mountains will get over 1/2 inch of snow this winter.. And you have that stellar track record to prove it. /s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 ....but, "JB" says it will be cold and snowy. Are you close to I think it's called Pleasant Hill? Ever heard of a place called Stateline By George? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The 6z GFS says upstate SC never goes below 20 right through day 16. I'll go on and say that I think no one outside of the mountains will get over 1/2 inch of snow this winter.. Wait, we are really using the GFS outside of 12 hours for 2m temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 And you have that stellar track record to prove it. /s Lol Oxford already got about a half inch two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I think I'm throwing in the towel for the winter. Several reasons why. 1) not even an inch of snow outside of the highest elevations so far. I mean usually I'm at about 9-10 inches in an average winter. 2) storm track is supposedly "perfect" but yet it's horrible. 3) everyone is saying "models probably won't show a storm til 72 hours out". Have fun with that. 4) not gonna wait all winter optimistically like I did last winter. There is no potential right now and I don't see much on the horizon. Is it early to throw in the towel sure. But the ski slopes have snow so as long as I can go break the bank there, everything else is just gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I think I'm throwing in the towel for the winter. Several reasons why. 1) not even an inch of snow outside of the highest elevations so far. I mean usually I'm at about 9-10 inches in an average winter. 2) storm track is supposedly "perfect" but yet it's horrible. 3) everyone is saying "models probably won't show a storm til 72 hours out". Have fun with that. 4) not gonna wait all winter optimistically like I did last winter. There is no potential right now and I don't see much on the horizon. Is it early to throw in the towel sure. But the ski slopes have snow so as long as I can go break the bank there, everything else is just gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS gets warmer with every other run............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS gets warmer with every other run............. We are talking about the GFS that has the AO going below -5? The NAO going below -3? The PNA +2? I guess this in the Banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS gets warmer with every other run............. Does that also mean every other run is colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 6z was colder than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 He was barking up on some random tree this morning on FB Ah yes, I see he posted how his forecast was correct even though it was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I think the writing is on the wall: In February we trust...or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 We need to start seeing something tangible on the models soon, or this week and next will all have been just chasing a ghost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I knew the El Nino would die down some once the cold air got in here! Pattern flip it is. we flipped the active STJ apparently also! lol Oh but wait, once we warm up, it will get active again.......... Before the cold got in here it would rain every 2-3 days now it's dry as a bone! Such is winter in the southeast!!! That's why we never need big arctic outbreaks nothing but cold/dry when that happens. I just want cold high pressure to the north, NEVER overpowering cold..... That's just me! I know some love cold and dry! I hate it. Rant over for now! Just for the record, I think we still end up above normal in the snow dept for the year. I think we will have 2-4 storms once we get it going............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I knew the El Nino would die down some once the cold air got in here! Pattern flip it is. we flipped the active STJ apparently also! lol Oh but wait, once we warm up, it will get active again.......... Before the cold got in here it would rain every 2-3 days now it's dry as a bone! Such is winter in the southeast!!! That's why we never need big arctic outbreaks nothing but cold/dry when that happens. I just want cold high pressure to the north, NEVER overpowering cold..... That's just me! I know some love cold and dry! I hate it. Rant over for now! Just for the record, I think we still end up above normal in the snow dept for the year. I think we will have 2-4 storms once we get it going............. According to Max, we don't even get the cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 According to Max, we don't even get the cold! 14.3 here this morning! That's pretty chilly in my book..............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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