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January 2016 BANTER

Isopycnic

By Isopycnic,
in Southeastern States

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KeepPounding

KeepPounding

Posted
Posted

Cool handle. I'll go on what isohume states as he works at a local nws office .

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks!

Agreed, I trust him as well, not going to argue with someone who works there lol!

I was just showing some examples of why it seems like it's not used or wasn't used recently. Not trying to prove to them they didn't use it or anything. I have no clue what went on or goes on in that office or any nws office.

My wife gets mad at me for being too literal. So for me if it says used NAM/GFS, I assumed that's all that was used. But now I know it's not and won't assume that anymore.

I think some local mets on TV make it worse as well, like the blind leading the blind sometimes when you look at everything on here and then see what they are saying.

Side note, I know we have a lot of great mets who have blogs and spend a lot of extra time showing the public scenarios and so on and take it seriously. So it's not directed at all of them. I know they have to be conservative because of the nature of the business they are in and there's no way to win bc people will complain if they over or under estimate etc... So it's definitely a tough job and I don't fault anyone for not showing clown maps on live tv.

The problem I have for example, is I just turned on one of the local news channels for laughs to see what they said and they show the low tracking across the mountains in NC and through NC before transferring to the coast. The model also shows my area just south of CLT with .05 ice and maybe 1 inch of snow. Oh, and it's supposed to start late morning Friday. No model is currently showing any of that for my area.

I get being conservative and trying to not make people panic and blow things out of proportion. But if I had no clue about weather, I would just assume I was getting nothing. I do think there is a time and place to warn about the potential, which I think this storm warrants. I could very well end up with those totals when it's all done, but as of now nothing is suggesting that's the case. Any extreme isn't good, whether it's showing 20" snow maps, or basically saying someone will get all rain.

Some have done well with that, others completely miss the mark, like the one I happened to watch.

I posted earlier about a huge bust last year when I was forecasted by GSP to get 10". A huge rarity for my location to be forecasted by the NWS that much and I ended up with a trace amount and pretty much all rain. So I know that no matter how much support the models show, even up until a few hours before the storm like that forecast, it's a fine line here and always has the potential for a bust. I have seen the possibility of those amounts from maps on here many times, but would never expect a local met or NWS to be that bullish. And I don't fault them for it not verifying on that one either.

Sorry for the rant. Just don't want anyone thinking I blindly bash mets and the NWS because they don't show totals imby that I want or what some models show or anything. Was just taking text too literal and allowing other forecasts to influence what it seemed like GSP and others were doing as well.

I do not envy their jobs and have a great deal of respect for what they do. A lot of lives are on the line at times with storms and their forecasts are crucial in preparing for them. I greatly appreciate all that they do, and I'm sure most if not all get far less thank you's than they get look how wrong you are etc...

So thank you isohume and others for all the time and effort put in during times like this.

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LMA1973

LMA1973

Posted
Posted

The other thing is unlike many on this board who look strictly at models and try to base everything off of that, any met worth his salt is going to also account for the intangibles as well as local data when forecasting their area. Thats why we always have the inevitable "bust" threads because the models "didnt pan out" Sometimes the models are right and the Mets were wrong, sometimes its the inverse. 

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted

I'm hoping this misses like the event last year and we somehow get more sleet here than freezing rain because based on CAD history I think the ice will get farther south than the current thinking by the NWS. I think the watch is SC will get expanded by at least 1 row of counties later to include Anderson over to Chester with the rain/ZR line probably cutting those 4 counties basically in half. The Duke Power map I saw shows close to what I'm thinking.

 

Edit: After looking at that map again, it's about 5-10 miles north of what I think will probably happen with the rain/ZR here in upstate SC.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

I'm hoping this misses like the event last year and we somehow get more sleet here than freezing rain because based on CAD history I think the ice will get farther south than the current thinking by the NWS. I think the watch is SC will get expanded by at least 1 row of counties later to include Anderson over to Chester with the rain/ZR line probably cutting those 4 counties basically in half. The Duke Power map I saw shows close to what I'm thinking.

Very good point about more counties being included to the S of us! I agree and you don't want to be the southern county in a watch or warning, we need another row
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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted

Very good point about more counties being included to the S of us! I agree and you don't want to be the southern county in a watch or warning, we need another row

Actually if this does go colder like last year, you do not want to be just OUTSIDE of the warnings to the south as the event starts. That's where the ice went last year. Our power stayed on last year, but many around us just to our south in the icier areas lost it, even though it was probably 65/35 sleet over ZR here. It would be very nice to get all snow here, but I'm not seeing that in SC. Maybe 1-3 on the back end though.

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