superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I read that it runs the storm inland through the sounds. That track would seemingly switch us to rain. I haven't seen it though, and nobody's really talking about it, so I assume it isn't spectacular. It looked pretty much the same as the 00z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It looked pretty much the same as the 00z EPS. Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thanks man! We're also kind of in the range where most of the focus should be on the operational models, I think (not that I still some look at the ensembles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Holy sh!t! This party starts tomorrow night! I can't believe it! We've been chasing 5-10 day storms for so long! Looks like a finger of precip gets to me by 9-11 pm as rain, then quickly turns icy! Then there's a lull. And main batch comes in Fri morning , as more ice here, according to the simulated radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandonInSC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS showing light snow extending deep into the central midlands on Sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Holy sh!t! This party starts tomorrow night! I can't believe it! We've been chasing 5-10 day storms for so long! Looks like a finger of precip gets to me by 9-11 pm as rain, then quickly turns icy! Then there's a lull. And main batch comes in Fri morning , as more ice here, according to the simulated radar Wyff and Chris Justice are going with .25 ice and 4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 OMG!! It's sleeting in my backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 OMG!! It's sleeting in my backyard Win! Congrats! S'mores time! Miller time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Win! Congrats! S'mores time! Miller time! I know right!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone have any input on if roads are slick at all in Charlotte? Wife's trying to decide to leave at her normal time or hang a little later to let traffic die down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am shocked the NWS is consistently ignoring the EURO and foreign models considering how the GFS is consistently and slowing catching up to it. Same with the NAM, 18Z continues the trend. At what point do they figure "you know what, maybe we ought to just look at the EURO instead?". No, we're not ignoring the ECMWF. Just because it's not mentioned in the AFD doesn't mean we don't look at it nor give it weight in the fcst process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wyff and Chris Justice are going with .25 ice and 4 inches of snow.Saw that , and it's amazeballs !Reading through all this stuff on main thread, gets a little confusing and all the maps make you dizzy! Chris and John simplified it! Chris is a snow weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seasonsoflove Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just ducking in to say - in 2014 Augusta was ground zero for ice in the v-day storm. We were very much crippled in areas for almost a week with this, and some of the damage could have been mitigated. So many people were caught off guard when they were stranded at their homes, no power, unable to drive for supplies or food. The lines at fast food joints 36 hours later were obscene. If you're in the pink (parts of NC/GSP and upstate): consider not just the standard 3-5 days of water and food but also freshly laundered sheets and blankets, firewood if you have a fireplace, an emergency radio, and a couple power blocks (assuming you're not in the market for a generator). Some waited 4-6 days for power to be restored down here. Charge your ebook reader or hit the library. Take special care if you're in a wooded area. That was by far the most damage for the area - the suburbs northwest of Augusta are in many cases carved out of the woods. If you have any iffy branches hanging over your home, take care of them before they get a chance to take care of your house. And as the storm proceeds, careful of snapping power lines and popping transformers. Don't mean to preach to the choir, just aware as an expatriate northerner that really severe icing events are rare enough that they knock people off their feet. Be safe and enjoy, everyone! Pray for a dusting this far south, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 bingo. Edit: hahaha come one folks I am sure your local office is looking at the sexy euro . No, we're not ignoring the ECMWF. Just because it's not mentioned in the AFD doesn't mean we don't look at it nor give it weight in the fcst process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 RAH's poster is conservative. Less than 2 inches. Can't say I'm surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 bingo. Edit: hahaha come one folks I am sure your local office is looking at the sexy euro . Its because AFD's have not mentioned it, so it seems like its not being used. "I USED A 2:1 BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR PROFILES AND A TOP-DOWN APPROACH FOR THE WX GRIDS AND ESTABLISH THE P-TYPE EVOLUTION." Nearly everyone has had the same type of language so I think its understandable to not think the EURO and others are being considered. Then add on top that local mets like to only forecast the GFS and/or NAM and it seems like those are all that get used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ye Olde Fishel just said expect little to no wrap around snow on Saturday for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Its because AFD's have not mentioned it, so it seems like its not being used. "I USED A 2:1 BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR PROFILES AND A TOP-DOWN APPROACH FOR THE WX GRIDS AND ESTABLISH THE P-TYPE EVOLUTION." Nearly everyone has had the same type of language so I think its understandable to not think the EURO and others are being considered. Then add on top that local mets like to only forecast the GFS and/or NAM and it seems like those are all that get used. The ECMWF is not available for certain preliminary procedures we like to use, but our final fcsts always consider all available guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ye Olde Fishel just said expect little to no wrap around snow on Saturday for RDU. Models I've seen say different. Maybe I'm wrong. I know what I've heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The ECMWF is not available for certain preliminary procedures we like to use, but our final fcsts always consider all available guidance. Thanks for clarifying! Wasn't trying to slam anyone, hope it didn't come off that way. Just head scratching for those of us who don't really know how these AFD's are put together or determined. Awesome to see people reaching out to clarify. Good luck with the upcoming storm! Sure it's a very stressful time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No, we're not ignoring the ECMWF. Just because it's not mentioned in the AFD doesn't mean we don't look at it nor give it weight in the fcst process. Ok, but it wasn't used in the forecast. Which still astounds me. But I know, I'm just a weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ok, but it wasn't used in the forecast. Which still astounds me. But I know, I'm just a weenie! Yes it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ye Olde Fishel just said expect little to no wrap around snow on Saturday for RDU. Wouldn't know, WRAL too proud to negotiate with DirecTV can't get it right now. That's fine by me, I'd rather read local amateur mets input along with look at models than listen to his drivel. Looking at some of the estimates I do wonder if some think we get into a dryer area as it moves through and not get as much precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Its because AFD's have not mentioned it, so it seems like its not being used. "I USED A 2:1 BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR PROFILES AND A TOP-DOWN APPROACH FOR THE WX GRIDS AND ESTABLISH THE P-TYPE EVOLUTION." Nearly everyone has had the same type of language so I think its understandable to not think the EURO and others are being considered. Then add on top that local mets like to only forecast the GFS and/or NAM and it seems like those are all that get used. Cool handle. I'll go on what isohume states as he works at a local nws office . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Quick comparison of snow maps for 18z (top) and 12z GFS. Considering the upstate was 100% rain just a couple runs ago, trends aren't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This has to be a joke? People bashing the NWS again? seriously, annoying. The euro is always looked at, I can promise you. in fact, they look at more data then we do. Man, why can't forecast discussions just go private/internal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilgore Trout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ok, but it wasn't used in the forecast. Which still astounds me. But I know, I'm just a weenie! GSP or any other NWS office is going to use every tool in their toolbox. Their forecasts are what are used to determine the actions of local and state governments, and their forecasts are the most scrutinized because of this. They will use every tool they have to come up with the best forecast, and they are the forecasters I trust the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wouldn't know, WRAL too proud to negotiate with DirecTV can't get it right now. That's fine by me, I'd rather read local amateur mets input along with look at models than listen to his drivel. Looking at some of the estimates I do wonder if some think we get into a dryer area as it moves through and not get as much precip. WRAL and DTV came to terms today, should be back. Funny you mention drier air, the last RAH discussion mentions dry slot as a concern. A COUPLE ITEMS WORTH NOTING INCLUDE: - OVERALL...THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS...IN TERMS OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION AND RESULTING IMPACTS...ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. - GENERALLY EXPECTING A 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION FOR A LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALBEMARLE TO PINEHURST TO SMITHFIELD TO WILSON. A NARROW SWATH OF 1/2 INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FROM ASHEBOROTO BURLINGTON AND HILLSBOROUGH...TO HENDERSON. WE USUALLY START GETTING REPORTS OF FALLING BRANCHES AND POWER OUTAGES ONCE THE ICE ACCUMULATES 1/4 INCH OR MORE. - THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IN OUR CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS FORSYTH AND NW GUILFORD COUNTIES...WHERE 8-12 INCHES OF SNOW ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION. - IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT COLDER AIR...WE`D HAVE TO SHIFT THE AFOREMENTIONED ITEMS AND IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH. - THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY CUT OFF THE PRECIP SOONER THAN EXPECTED... WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY LESSEN THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS. - PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SATURDAY SNOW/FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS. MODEL QPF VALUES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ARE PRETTY LIGHT...BUT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE WETTER. STAY TUNED! http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Can anybody name a time nc has profited in inches on wraparound backside now? I honestly can't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 From dry slots to WAA to thunderstorm convection...always a wrench to throw in somewhere. Why can't it just be 70 and sunny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.