mjwise Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'd like to lock in the 15Z SREF plume mean for MBY please. 21" SREF is still in la la range because the range is still 2" to 50"...but hmm, the 12z Euro says 22" for MBY too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here is the question. Do I go to the daughter's friends bday party in Lexington? Or drive to the sister in laws in Charlotte fri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seriously, the best thing about a potential storm is going to the grocery store before everything hits the fan so you can prepare a feast to enjoy* for days after the event *or cry into as you're eating your feelings because that warm nose just crushed your hopes and dreams Or cry in your beer with your cold rain while 50 miles up 77 gets epic winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 anyone got info on the eps? does it follow the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 anyone got info on the eps? does it follow the op? Waiting for it to run. Maybe someone has stormvista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smdriver Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 At the risk of being berated, I'm trying to learn a little bit about all of this with this storm, but have seen barely any discussion about conditions in NC east of Raleigh. How are we shaping up? From the maps I've poured through the last 24 hours, it seems an inch or two of snow with some freezing rain mixed in is to be expected. How off base am I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nws has Myrtle beach mixing rain and snow after 3pm Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 so much moisture out ahead of it at 36, snow in raleigh, icy south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Are these really low dewpoints going to hang around? That could be trouble if they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am shocked the NWS is consistently ignoring the EURO and foreign models considering how the GFS is consistently and slowing catching up to it. Same with the NAM, 18Z continues the trend. At what point do they figure "you know what, maybe we ought to just look at the EURO instead?". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 PSA: If you're going to post AFD text from your local NWS office, PLEASE bold what you think is important, so a wall of text is actually readable. Can't tell you how many times I scroll past those simply to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is actually more of a rhetorical question, but do you think the regional NWS offices in NC (specifically RAH) are "downplaying" the event to avoid overhyping the storm or, something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I remember we were supposed to get a Miller A monster back in 2001? Anyway pretty much the entire state of NC got dry slotted. Wonder if that still plays into the conservative forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am shocked the NWS is consistently ignoring the EURO and foreign models considering how the GFS is consistently and slowing catching up to it. Same with the NAM, 18Z continues the trend. At what point do they figure "you know what, maybe we ought to just look at the EURO instead?". Is the GFS really that awful for CLT? I got the impression that it wasn't as much sn/ ip/ zr as the Euro, but that there was still sn / ip / zr in North Carolina outside the mountains and foothills? Could the regional NWS mets consider the GFS more reliable in a record-breaking Nino year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 PSA: If you're going to post AFD text from your local NWS office, PLEASE bold what you think is important, so a wall of text is actually readable. Can't tell you how many times I scroll past those simply to move on. + 1 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like RAH just issued a Winter Storm Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is the GFS really that awful for CLT? I got the impression that it wasn't as much sn/ ip/ zr as the Euro, but that there was still sn / ip / zr in North Carolina outside the mountains and foothills? Could the regional NWS mets consider the GFS more reliable in a record-breaking Nino year? I think after a few big busts over the past few years they are playing it very conservative, rightfully so. It is extremely hard to forecast these storms in this area. Very tight gradients and just a few miles between large amounts of snow and a cold rain. Just last year we were suppose to get hammered up through I-85 corridor and get mostly nothing. If guidance suggests otherwise in the AM or the 00z models suggest different they may ramp up precip totals etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 One of these days, RAH will realize that there are counties west of Durham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not sure of the right way to post this, so just going to link, but we have official advisories in the Triangle now, including a snippet regarding tonight: http://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=rah&wwa=all Here's the part that's just regarding tonight: ...BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY THISEVENING THEN A MAJOR WINTER STORM ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT....A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING AQUICK SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTHCAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AMOUNTS AREEXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO JUST UNDER AN INCH... ENOUGHTO MAKE ROADS SLIPPERY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTOTHE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE THURSDAY EVENING... ANDLAST THROUGH SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Gotta put this in banter not to clog up pinned threads -- Folks - have fun and enjoy; after December, you've earned it!!!! If someone wants to turn the fan on high speed and aim it south .... well, just wishin' Best to all of you! Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 "* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILLRANGE FROM A DUSTING TO JUST UNDER ONE INCH. THEN... FORTHURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4TO 8 INCHES... AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 12 INCHES AROUND WINSTON-SALEM...ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALFINCH... ARE POSSIBLE." NWS RAH - HONK HONK, I hear you loud and clear... dont see that forecast too frequently round these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I will never understand why having a watch/warning issued in an area changes what the weather is going to do. Seems people have that thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I will never understand why having a watch/warning issued in an area changes what the weather is going to do. Seems people have that thinking. I think it just gives a false sense of confirmation that it is going to snow and do exactly what the models say. It could for sure but forecasting wintry wx in this area is very hard to do. I don't envy any of the mets this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just got NAM'd and DT'd. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 anyone got info on the eps? does it follow the op? I read that it runs the storm inland through the sounds. That track would seemingly switch us to rain. I haven't seen it though, and nobody's really talking about it, so I assume it isn't spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I read that it runs the storm inland through the sounds. That track would seemingly switch us to rain. I haven't seen it though, and nobody's really talking about it, so I assume it isn't spectacular. Rain for me as usual ...but I did get stuff for smores for when I get my 33 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just got NAM'd and DT'd. Cool. For the life of me I don't know why people care what dt says for down this way when his focus is always on the mid Atlantic and new england. Given what's in store for DC and the mid Atlantic I doubt he has given no more tHan a glance at the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This thing can keep going south. Thatd be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Rain for me as usual ...but I did get stuff for smores for when I get my 33 and rain Nice! Smores are awesome in any weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For the life of me I don't know why people care what dt says for down this way when his focus is always on the mid Atlantic and new england. Given what's in store for DC and the mid Atlantic I doubt he has given no more tHan a glance at the southeast Haha, true, and I've seen his maps here bust more than once here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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