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January 2016 BANTER


Isopycnic

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Yeah Matt does a great job blending the guidance and coming up with a general thought about where he thinks things are going (though News 14 official forecast is very GFS/NAMish, probably not Matt's forecast). Brad P is leaning heavily on 0Z GFS and NAM clearly.  I think that's a rule for TV mets.  I think they're xenophobic! Can't use those foreigner models! 

 

It might be wise to lean on a big ice event as a just in case. A foot of snow is not nearly as bad as an inch of ice. A foot of snow will put people out of work/power for a few days. An inch of ice can take weeks to recover from. People should get prepared just in case. I've always felt it was prudent for TV mets to explore worst case first....not sure I buy that much ice, but if it does happen forecasters would never hear the end of it. Hell Larry Cosgrove can't live down his failure on the ice front and that was over 10 years ago. 

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Now that is a fact.  Crazy.  Right on the teetering line.  Can't figure out which way we're going to fall with this one either.  Different storm, same story. 

 

I thought from the start it would be a mixed bag. I still think that. I have a hard time buying the NAM and GFS solution fully. Will like to see what the Euro has to say now. If it hold serves I think we get a good 4 - 8 of snow with some sleet and ZR in between as the low punches a warm nose in. 

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Amen to that. I love snowfall forecasts. Snow maps are also awesome to look at. But until you see it start falling, you really have only a general idea of amounts. Round these parts, you have t wait and see how the radar sets up. So many little hills and valleys that redirect returns. You must know your location in WNC. 

Wait till we see the whites in the skies :)

 

Thanks, guys.  But, I won't let myself celebrate until I see the ground truth.  :D

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I thought from the start it would be a mixed bag. I still think that. I have a hard time buying the NAM and GFS solution fully. Will like to see what the Euro has to say now. If it hold serves I think we get a good 4 - 8 of snow with some sleet and ZR in between as the low punches a warm nose in. 

 

Yeah with the Miller B I do expect a mix.  With the very southern solutions though I'm hoping more snow and sleet than fzrn.  I think CLT has to get most of their winter precip when the storm is to our south.  When it gets to our east, I hate depending on the deformation band that far west.  Therefore I'm not counting on much wrap-around snow.  I think most of our snow will need to come from our wedge, hard and cold.  Just like the blizzard in 96, not much snow for CLT.

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If GFS is correct, Mecklenburg County would be a case of feast or famine.

 

 

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-20276-1453307033_thumb.jpg

 

Yea, I still lean towards the Euro just because it seems the other models moved towards it. Even if the GFS is right it's still close enough to where CLT could luck out for sure...especially given the dynamics involved. Only time will tell. 

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I agree Bsudweather. I still don't think the GFS is cold enough yet with the CAD and it is a funky depiction of it as well. The Canadian looks more right especially when you bring in climatology history in.

We know over the years in these setups that the GFS almost ALWAYS underestimated the CAD. And with all other models pretty much in agreement with each other on being colder, I think it's safe to say the GFS Could be thrown out completely.

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