SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems CLT is always on the dividing line of the have and have nots when it comes to winter storms. Now that is a fact. Crazy. Right on the teetering line. Can't figure out which way we're going to fall with this one either. Different storm, same story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah Matt does a great job blending the guidance and coming up with a general thought about where he thinks things are going (though News 14 official forecast is very GFS/NAMish, probably not Matt's forecast). Brad P is leaning heavily on 0Z GFS and NAM clearly. I think that's a rule for TV mets. I think they're xenophobic! Can't use those foreigner models! It might be wise to lean on a big ice event as a just in case. A foot of snow is not nearly as bad as an inch of ice. A foot of snow will put people out of work/power for a few days. An inch of ice can take weeks to recover from. People should get prepared just in case. I've always felt it was prudent for TV mets to explore worst case first....not sure I buy that much ice, but if it does happen forecasters would never hear the end of it. Hell Larry Cosgrove can't live down his failure on the ice front and that was over 10 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Now that is a fact. Crazy. Right on the teetering line. Can't figure out which way we're going to fall with this one either. Different storm, same story. I thought from the start it would be a mixed bag. I still think that. I have a hard time buying the NAM and GFS solution fully. Will like to see what the Euro has to say now. If it hold serves I think we get a good 4 - 8 of snow with some sleet and ZR in between as the low punches a warm nose in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Amen to that. I love snowfall forecasts. Snow maps are also awesome to look at. But until you see it start falling, you really have only a general idea of amounts. Round these parts, you have t wait and see how the radar sets up. So many little hills and valleys that redirect returns. You must know your location in WNC. Wait till we see the whites in the skies Thanks, guys. But, I won't let myself celebrate until I see the ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good city, wish you guys had better food though. The Food isn't that bad Burger. Nothing compared to Charlotte. Beer is good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I thought from the start it would be a mixed bag. I still think that. I have a hard time buying the NAM and GFS solution fully. Will like to see what the Euro has to say now. If it hold serves I think we get a good 4 - 8 of snow with some sleet and ZR in between as the low punches a warm nose in. Yeah with the Miller B I do expect a mix. With the very southern solutions though I'm hoping more snow and sleet than fzrn. I think CLT has to get most of their winter precip when the storm is to our south. When it gets to our east, I hate depending on the deformation band that far west. Therefore I'm not counting on much wrap-around snow. I think most of our snow will need to come from our wedge, hard and cold. Just like the blizzard in 96, not much snow for CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If GFS is correct, Mecklenburg County would be a case of feast or famine. http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-20276-1453307033_thumb.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If GFS is correct, Mecklenburg County would be a case of feast or famine. http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-20276-1453307033_thumb.jpg Yea, I still lean towards the Euro just because it seems the other models moved towards it. Even if the GFS is right it's still close enough to where CLT could luck out for sure...especially given the dynamics involved. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No snow love in this tweet. Check out @MikeWDross's Tweet: https://twitter.com/MikeWDross/status/689849265443708930?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For all the GA posters, I put together my first call map compared to the NC guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Upstate is looking like a disaster! Would not be surprised to see GSPstart issuing WSW this afternoon. I really don't see how they couldn't, or at the latest tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Dang it, posted that video in the wrong thread. Sorry mods.. deleted. Going to the store, based on this alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Upstate is looking like a disaster! Would not be surprised to see GSPstart issuing WSW this afternoon. I really don't see how they couldn't, or at the latest tomorrow morning. Still looking like a crippling ice storm with a couple inches of snow on top? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I agree Bsudweather. I still don't think the GFS is cold enough yet with the CAD and it is a funky depiction of it as well. The Canadian looks more right especially when you bring in climatology history in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandonInSC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I still don't understand the "milk" aspect lol. If the power goes out won't all that milk spoil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I still don't understand the "milk" aspect lol. If the power goes out won't all that milk spoil? In cold/snowy.. sit it outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandonInSC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 In cold/snowy.. sit it outside. Lol true, but I think people say the same thing when a hurricane is coming as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sn_lover is mptoomanynumberstoremember isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Still looking like a crippling ice storm with a couple inches of snow on top? Sure looks to me like the case. Not looking good, that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sn_lover is mptoomanynumberstoremember isn't it? Yeah, methinks someone needs to be confined to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I agree Bsudweather. I still don't think the GFS is cold enough yet with the CAD and it is a funky depiction of it as well. The Canadian looks more right especially when you bring in climatology history in. We know over the years in these setups that the GFS almost ALWAYS underestimated the CAD. And with all other models pretty much in agreement with each other on being colder, I think it's safe to say the GFS Could be thrown out completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I still don't understand the "milk" aspect lol. If the power goes out won't all that milk spoil? Nah you sit it outside in the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I could easily see a scenario where Winston gets crushed with heavy snow and GSO is mostly IP and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sn_lover is mptoomanynumberstoremember isn't it? lol he should just admit he said something dumb and we can all move on. We've all been there trying to save face on the internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yea it happens, my wife tells me I'm wrong every day for example . When do the radar hallucinations start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yea it happens, my wife tells me I'm wrong every day for example . When do the radar hallucinations start? The HRRR meltdowns and fantasies will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The HRRR meltdowns and fantasies will be fun. Well I can't say anything, I fell victim to SREF plume hopefulness last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The HRRR meltdowns and fantasies will be fun. Remember that 30" snow totals on I-85 last year? Good times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Justus has a new video out. Goes very conservative on the zr totals compares to what models are showing. Calling for about .20" of freezing rain with 1-2" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 RaleighWx posted. Things just got real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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