Regan Raleigh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cold Rain is the only person I've seen on the net (not even tv) to say 1in of rain after the frozen stuff and that we will need a flood warning---- what I'm referring to. I think 1in and flooding is extreme. Imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Blizzard Watch issued for the DMV (DC, MD, VA)! wow, just wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cold Rain is the only person I've seen on the net (not even tv) to say 1in of rain after the frozen stuff and that we will need a flood warning---- what I'm referring to. I think 1in and flooding is extreme. Imo You missed yesterday, he's doing it for reverse psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You missed yesterday, he's doing it for reverse psychology State won a ballgame last night. Strange things are afoot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Brad P put out a great vlog. He said he was worried about rdu and ice. He didn't mention anything about 1in of plain rain here in rdu. Allan Huffman thinks 1.5in qpf frozen before a change of anything changing. Idk. I just think here in nw wake county it'll stay mostly frozen most or all. All the mets in CLT even the NWS seem to be riding the GFS and the NAM hard. I don't think the EURO is being heavily weighted at all, nor is it being discussed. You've got the EURO, their ensembles, GFS Ensembles, NAVGEM, JMA, UKIE, FRENCHY, all with a far southern track with heavy snow/sleet at least into the southern piedmont. But the GFS says mostly rain so that's the way it's being reported as of this morning, no big deal. Either the EURO is right and there's a huge storm for a major metropolitan city with little to no notification about it, or there's going to be a big bust on the EURO's part that's going to be tough to live down! Still not sure which it's going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You missed yesterday, he's doing it for reverse psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poptones Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cold Rain is the only person I've seen on the net (not even tv) to say 1in of rain after the frozen stuff and that we will need a flood warning---- what I'm referring to. I think 1in and flooding is extreme. Imo 1) presumably there's some sarcasm there 2) at this point his scenario is just as likely as any other. Long time residents will tell you that dry slots and warm noses are nasty wicked dirty evil terms for a reason around here - both of those things have wrecked many a beautifully modeled storm and it's something you can hardly ever rule out until the storm is happening right on top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Flood watches are going to need to go up for the Triangle, soon! Flooding concerns have been mentioned in the last couple AFD's. The Neuse and Tar rivers are still running high, but just under flood stages, where they've been for most of the month. "IN ADDITIONS TO THE THREAT FOR WINTER WX... LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE... WITH TOTALS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MORE RIVER FLOODING." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 State won a ballgame last night. Strange things are afoot.. And CR was no where to be found in here at that time, coincidence? I think not! Big win for the guys, hopefully they can close strong and get to 7-9 conference wins. Dropping the VA Tech one after having a good lead sucked and put us behind the 8 ball right off the bat. Now let's reel this storm in, give me 3-6" of southern cement and I'll be happy here in the CLT area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 twc mentioning wind gusts >40mph sat as the backend snow moves in. will be fun if it verifies, maybe not so much if we have ice on the trees and power lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So GSP is still saying heaving rain for Friday for my area. I'm guessing they are leaning towards the GFS solution at the moment. Is this another case of them being conservative until closer to the event to avoid people freaking out? Edit: I'm in Greenville SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 All the mets in CLT even the NWS seem to be riding the GFS and the NAM hard. I don't think the EURO is being heavily weighted at all, nor is it being discussed. You've got the EURO, their ensembles, GFS Ensembles, NAVGEM, JMA, UKIE, FRENCHY, all with a far southern track with heavy snow/sleet at least into the southern piedmont. But the GFS says mostly rain so that's the way it's being reported as of this morning, no big deal. Either the EURO is right and there's a huge storm for a major metropolitan city with little to no notification about it, or there's going to be a big bust on the EURO's part that's going to be tough to live down! Still not sure which it's going to be. When the Euro locks into a solution in the short/medium range, it'd be foolish to bet against it. I've always placed high value on the Euro, but even I figured it was off its rocker being literally the only model to keep Joaquin offshore. This wasn't the first time the Euro stood alone and won, but it was a dramatic enough victory to leave a lasting impression on me. The Euro is not infallible, but it fully deserves its king moniker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For the Triangle folks, keep an eye on the track of the storm. If it tracks inland, we will most likely go over to rain, possibly for a good bit of the storm. If it tracks offshore, we'll be good for mostly frozen. Our area needs the transfer to happen south of what the Nam shows and the track needs to be 50 miles or so east of what the Nam shows. It certainly can happen that way, but that's the key thing right now to watch. If I had to make an official guess, I'd say a likely scenario is that we pick up an inch or two of snow/sleet, then go to ZR for a good .1 or .2 and then an inch of rain, followed by a dry slot, followed by some back end light snow...maybe a half inch. Triad looks much better to stay all frozen, but even there, I would guess mixing will happen to some extent. I agree w/ this...Good call Mr. Rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If the Nam and Euro are on the same page, that is normally the winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 All the mets in CLT even the NWS seem to be riding the GFS and the NAM hard. I don't think the EURO is being heavily weighted at all, nor is it being discussed. You've got the EURO, their ensembles, GFS Ensembles, NAVGEM, JMA, UKIE, FRENCHY, all with a far southern track with heavy snow/sleet at least into the southern piedmont. But the GFS says mostly rain so that's the way it's being reported as of this morning, no big deal. Either the EURO is right and there's a huge storm for a major metropolitan city with little to no notification about it, or there's going to be a big bust on the EURO's part that's going to be tough to live down! Still not sure which it's going to be. +1 Anytime I am watching or reading a blog or post and someone throws out or disregards all other models or only uses/shows one model, I almost instantly stop watching/reading. If you watch Matthew East's blog, he goes through all models and possibilities. He tempers expectations on any extreme, that shows huge snow/ice or no snow/ice. There is no way at any time to not use multiple models to discuss what could happen and Matthew East does an excellent job at laying everything out. I know there are times when a model is thrown out because it's showing junk or whatever, but not ignoring every other model. Could the NAM nail it? Of course, any model could right now, but I don't see the benefit in only showing one model on a blog outside of an on TV forecast. I have liked many posts of what Brad has put together in the past, but this recent video showing only the NAM is just a small drop in the bucket of possibilities to me and I don't put a lot of weight in to that outcome. Especially with him mentioning he thinks ice possibilities will more likely move further north of CLT, when pretty much every model is continually moving south and east and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That feeling, knowing you are less than 36hrs from witnessing something historic, damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Holy Cow, what a run for WNC on the latest GFS!! I am amazed at how all the models are heading toward a one foot or so storm for my area. I am trying hard to temper my excitement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seeing freezing rain in my area. I would rather just have plain old rain than that awful freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cold Rain is the only person I've seen on the net (not even tv) to say 1in of rain after the frozen stuff and that we will need a flood warning---- what I'm referring to. I think 1in and flooding is extreme. Imo The 12z nam just showed 1" of rain for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Holy Cow, what a run for WNC on the latest GFS!! I am amazed at how all the models are heading toward a one foot or so storm for my area. I am trying hard to temper my excitement... Told you that you would be in the money so to speak. Seen it too many times unfold back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Holy Cow, what a run for WNC on the latest GFS!! I am amazed at how all the models are heading toward a one foot or so storm for my area. I am trying hard to temper my excitement... You're in a great spot Calc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgrego72 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 for driving south on I-85 from concord NC. Whats better friday morning or saturday morning leaving on vacation worried about roads. I am not sure what is better but need leave around those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Told you that you would be in the money so to speak. Seen it too many times unfold back home. Seems CLT is always on the dividing line of the have and have nots when it comes to winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 for driving south on I-85 from concord NC. Whats better friday morning or saturday morning leaving on vacation worried about roads. I am not sure what is better but need leave around those times. gonna be dicey either way. initial snow/ice early friday and sat the roads will probably be a mess with backend snow moving thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That feeling, knowing you are less than 36hrs from witnessing something historic, damn. Yeah, lots of pictures and video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cold Rain is the only person I've seen on the net (not even tv) to say 1in of rain after the frozen stuff and that we will need a flood warning---- what I'm referring to. I think 1in and flooding is extreme. Imo Meh, I just said if I had to give an official prediction....like as in if I was on TV or something. Hard to pull the trigger on an all frozen event here yet. I didn't say it couldn't happen. It depends on the track, and there are several possible scenarios. My guess is still a good hit. We'll see. You missed yesterday, he's doing it for reverse psychology Haha yeah. I forgot to do that today. So, the UK and the Euro aren't going to cut it. And go Pack! Flooding concerns have been mentioned in the last couple AFD's. The Neuse and Tar rivers are still running high, but just under flood stages, where they've been for most of the month. "IN ADDITIONS TO THE THREAT FOR WINTER WX... LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE... WITH TOTALS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MORE RIVER FLOODING." Correct. Saturated ground and what should be a heavy precip event could lead to localized flooding. I agree w/ this...Good call Mr. Rain! Thanks, sir. Hopefully, we'll continue to see good trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Told you that you would be in the money so to speak. Seen it too many times unfold back home. You're in a great spot Calc Thanks, guys. But, I won't let myself celebrate until I see the ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 for driving south on I-85 from concord NC. Whats better friday morning or saturday morning leaving on vacation worried about roads. [/size]I am not sure what is better but need leave around those times.[/size] As early Friday as possible, if not, you could have a go at it Saturday afternoon. Also depends on what you are driving as there is a big difference between a Corolla and a AWD vehicle built for adverse road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems CLT is always on the dividing line of the have and have nots when it comes to winter storms. I'm learning that haha. Living in Birkdale wasn't bad for storms like this. Where I'm at now is just painful to know that a 15 min drive often results in at least a 2" snow total difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 +1 Anytime I am watching or reading a blog or post and someone throws out or disregards all other models or only uses/shows one model, I almost instantly stop watching/reading. If you watch Matthew East's blog, he goes through all models and possibilities. He tempers expectations on any extreme, that shows huge snow/ice or no snow/ice. There is no way at any time to not use multiple models to discuss what could happen and Matthew East does an excellent job at laying everything out. I know there are times when a model is thrown out because it's showing junk or whatever, but not ignoring every other model. Could the NAM nail it? Of course, any model could right now, but I don't see the benefit in only showing one model on a blog outside of an on TV forecast. I have liked many posts of what Brad has put together in the past, but this recent video showing only the NAM is just a small drop in the bucket of possibilities to me and I don't put a lot of weight in to that outcome. Especially with him mentioning he thinks ice possibilities will more likely move further north of CLT, when pretty much every model is continually moving south and east and colder. Yeah Matt does a great job blending the guidance and coming up with a general thought about where he thinks things are going (though News 14 official forecast is very GFS/NAMish, probably not Matt's forecast). Brad P is leaning heavily on 0Z GFS and NAM clearly. I think that's a rule for TV mets. I think they're xenophobic! Can't use those foreigner models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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