Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Define EPIC Maybe not epic, but all the maps look pretty good for a big storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This line absolutely cracked me up....because its true and i don't blame you I have never seen such an assault on logic in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Maybe not epic, but all the maps look pretty good for a big storm here We have an accord then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yea I agree...it's somewhat confusing at times. What I've learned over the years on here is follow the model runs for trends in either direction. But stick with GSP for the real deal forecast. They won't change until a real consensus of the models occurs. They are right MOST of the time. If I see them start to honk their horns tomorrow then I'll get excited. Agree, GSP does an excellent job with forecasting. They have been in our neck of the woods long enough to understand to err on the side of being cautious and conservative. Hanging on to each new model is lots of fun....but informative is to be patient and let history be your guide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I have never seen such an assault on logic in my life. No doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't know what they did to our network at work, but about a month ago it started to suck. It gets really slow sometimes and takes forever for pages to load. It just happens at random times, too. Makes it frustrating during the play by play for the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 FWIW, Allan Huffman posted on Twitter at 6:15am ish, "overnight guidance has only served to increase confidence in winter storm threat. 00z ecmwf remained very winters looking" and 25 mins ago "overnight we cont to see a southward shift to the major synoptic features with this event. Ecmwf remained most extreme for nc". Says he will post his first call map sometime after the 12z and after that as he sees fit. I'd say it's def not over. I trust within reason what he says. Nothing is in stone of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Atlanta gets nothing but rain on this storm. I'm tired of seeing snow in the forecast for Atlanta. Please get real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM finally came around! woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I for one welcome Winter Storm Joe Jonas for my first winter in Blacksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think I just got NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think I just got NAM'd we've all been euro'd for a while but no one wanted to believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Flood watches are going to need to go up for the Triangle, soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 we've all been euro'd for a while but no one wanted to believe it. not all It's a rainstorm for mby Good luck se crew....may you have more sleet than zr and more snow than sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am not posting in the Storm thread but how is 1.26 inches of ice even possible. the rates would cool the 850's at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think I just got NAM'd Whoa at the FRZ RA map that just got posted in the disco thread. Hold me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think I just got NAM'd Jean Claude Van NAM'd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Oops went to edit this and wasn't paying attention and deleted it. Too many things at once.... I don't post much because I am nowhere close to analyzing the models like most on this site, so I don't fill up threads with junk posts. However, I have been monitoring storms for years on here and posted a few times here and there in the past. After seeing all the excitement and MBY posts and everything going on because of the "possible" upcoming snow event for most on here, I thought I would post a voice of reason, as others have. We were in the same place February of last year, with a huge winter storm coming. GSP and others were all in with some of the highest snowfall forecasts for my area I had seen from them in recent history. I know every storm is different and there are different factors on them busting or not, but regardless, we live in the south, and nothing is certain. The last GSP forecast below was issued the day of the storm. I live in Union County near Monroe and we were forecasted for 9.5"-10.5". Sadly, we got nothing, other than some flakes mixed with rain to look at briefly, which the storm total map shows below. So for everyone's sanity, especially newbies and weenies, take everything with a grain of salt, be excited for the "potential", but there is a reason these are models and predictions, not guarantees, ESPECIALLY in the area we(I) live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am not posting in the Storm thread but how is 1.26 inches of ice even possible. the rates would cool the 850's at some point. Not exactly. Freezing Rain actually has the opposite effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncstatered21 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am all for winter weather but I really hope CLT is spared the frz rain. We have been waiting years to see an NFC Championship at home. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Flood watches are going to need to go up for the Triangle, soon! Ok cool guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 panthers game sunday will be a nightmare, roads may be a mess. i wonder how the city is going to handle it if clt gets a sig storm with ice/snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDUBRDU Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Flood watches are going to need to go up for the Triangle, soon! Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 panthers game sunday will be a nightmare, roads may be a mess. i wonder how the city is going to handle it if clt gets a sig storm with ice/snow? Yea this place is a nightmare when we get a couple inches of snow, let alone possibly an inch of ice, and then snow on top it it! Nightmare scenario here, there is no way they could handle it well enough for the amount of people travelling to the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncstatered21 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 panthers game sunday will be a nightmare, roads may be a mess. i wonder how the city is going to handle it if clt gets a sig storm with ice/snow? Of all the times to have a storm, it has to be when the Panthers could be making history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am not posting in the Storm thread but how is 1.26 inches of ice even possible. the rates would cool the 850's at some point. SC had like 1.5 inches of ice last year or the year before...I forgot which year it was...it's very possible if the warm nose is strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For the Triangle folks, keep an eye on the track of the storm. If it tracks inland, we will most likely go over to rain, possibly for a good bit of the storm. If it tracks offshore, we'll be good for mostly frozen. Our area needs the transfer to happen south of what the Nam shows and the track needs to be 50 miles or so east of what the Nam shows. It certainly can happen that way, but that's the key thing right now to watch. If I had to make an official guess, I'd say a likely scenario is that we pick up an inch or two of snow/sleet, then go to ZR for a good .1 or .2 and then an inch of rain, followed by a dry slot, followed by some back end light snow...maybe a half inch. Triad looks much better to stay all frozen, but even there, I would guess mixing will happen to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For the Triangle folks, keep an eye on the track of the storm. If it tracks inland, we will most likely go over to rain, possibly for a good bit of the storm. If it tracks offshore, we'll be good for mostly frozen. Our area needs the transfer to happen south of what the Nam shows and the track needs to be 50 miles or so east of what the Nam shows. It certainly can happen that way, but that's the key thing right now to watch. If I had to make an official guess, I'd say a likely scenario is that we pick up an inch or two of snow/sleet, then go to ZR for a good .1 or .2 and then an inch of rain, followed by a dry slot, followed by some back end light snow...maybe a half inch. Triad looks much better to stay all frozen, but even there, I would guess mixing will happen to some extent. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Brad P put out a great vlog. He said he was worried about rdu and ice. He didn't mention anything about 1in of plain rain here in rdu. Allan Huffman thinks 1.5in qpf frozen before a change of anything changing. Idk. I just think here in nw wake county it'll stay mostly frozen most or all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Brad P put out a great vlog. He said he was worried about rdu and ice. He didn't mention anything about 1in of plain rain here in rdu. Allan Huffman thinks 1.5in qpf frozen before a change of anything changing. Idk. I just think here in nw wake county it'll stay mostly frozen most or all. 1.5 before a change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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