buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yes temps 33-35 verbatim. I'm merely discussing a potential minor ice event which is 1-2 degrees away from being a minor accumulation of zr for some. It may or may not happen but it's worth discussing imo. High res nam puts out up to .25 of qpf in the Raleigh area. If we are 31-32 instead of 33-35 then that would cause issues. It's something people in central and western NC as well as parts of southern VA need to keep an eye on as the high res models are trending colder. Model output can't always be taken verbatim, I've seen them bust even in the short term well to the warm or cold side. All I'm saying is we are very close to a minor ice event here in central and western NC and it's something to keep an eye on and discuss. All I'm saying, in my reply to Mac, is that for the majority here it won't be anything more than a cool sprinkle. If that, because the moisture layer is so shallow and it arrives later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yes temps 33-35 verbatim. I'm merely discussing a potential minor ice event which is 1-2 degrees away from being a minor accumulation of zr for some. It may or may not happen but it's worth discussing imo. High res nam puts out up to .25 of qpf in the Raleigh area. If we are 31-32 instead of 33-35 then that would cause issues. It's something people in central and western NC as well as parts of southern VA need to keep an eye on as the high res models are trending colder. Model output can't always be taken verbatim, I've seen them bust even in the short term well to the warm or cold side. All I'm saying is we are very close to a minor ice event here in central and western NC and it's something to keep an eye on and discuss. We've seen this a thousand times. Might work out for RDU areas...maybe. For GSP to CLT 99.999% of the time it never works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 All I'm saying, in my reply to Mac, is that for the majority here it won't be anything more than a cool sprinkle. If that, because the moisture layer is so shallow and it arrives later. This is the experience we've come to expect because "reasons and history" (GSP-CLT). We've seen this a thousand times. Might work out for RDU areas...maybe. For GSP to CLT 99.999% of the time it never works out. Add another infinite number of 9's or just go ahead and round it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 With the way things are setting up and the potential starting next week, it would be fun to have a repeat of what happened in the second half of Jan 2000 with multiple winter events between the 18th and the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 A must read blog by James Spann http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=98058 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 A must read blog by James Spann http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=98058 Good read, everyone should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 A must read blog by James Spann http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=98058 An excellent read. James Spann has a great way with words. Communicating effectively and sternly, but without destroying the hopes and passions of the up-and-coming generation. Thanks for sharing, Buckeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 A must read blog by James Spann http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=98058 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Accumulating snow fell in the OBX this morning. Roads were white. Amazing. The WRF showed snow showers yesterday that the GFS/NAM/EURO didn't show, but not today I don't think. Just goes to show you anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 All I'm saying, in my reply to Mac, is that for the majority here it won't be anything more than a cool sprinkle. If that, because the moisture layer is so shallow and it arrives later. Agreed for most on here it probably won't and may not be anything for the central NC area. It is something to keep an eye on model trends and then real time obs as we get closer. The most likely scenario is what we love so much, the dreaded 33 and rain. The possibility exists for it being just cold enough for minor icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Short video of the snow in the OBX this morning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWi1al30QvY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The reason why I asked Poiman was he mention on his facebook that pretty much mirrored your comment.. About the whole I was cutting my grass in Jan and it started snowing, thats a first statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What is the deal with so many NC members in the SE forum? Even then why are there so many RDU area members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What is the deal with so many NC members in the SE forum? Even then why are there so many RDU area members? has always been that way, when i lived in sc i was def in the minority. talkweather seems to be more ga/alabama centric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What is the deal with so many NC members in the SE forum? Even then why are there so many RDU area members? For the same reason the left side of a "V" formation of geese is longer than the right. There's more geese on that side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 has always been that way, when i lived in sc i was def in the minority. talkweather seems to be more ga/alabama centric. We should all sign up to TW at the same time. Then force the discussion on only NC weather. Just kidding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Thanks for posting. It is interesting to note that so far, the models have not been putting out snow for our area, and we have not gotten any to speak of except for 2 dust ups. Since the models still are not putting out snow in the early weeks of this pattern change, there would appear to be some weighting on the models that they are still correct. Time will tell. The models are never correct, but I know what you're saying. This has been a hard pattern to change and you're seeing it in the consistent LR op/ens uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 has always been that way, when i lived in sc i was def in the minority. talkweather seems to be more ga/alabama centric. When they say there is a winter storm potential, I stick around to let my SC guys know what's up cause we kinda get skipped over for the "threat" stuff. It gets better after the threat is imminent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Short video of the snow in the OBX this morning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWi1al30QvY Impossible, with the elevated soil temperatures and what not............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The models are never correct, but I know what you're saying. This has been a hard pattern to change and you're seeing it in the consistent LR uncertainty. I pray for the day that people actually see them as tools and not actual forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What is the deal with so many NC members in the SE forum? Even then why are there so many RDU area members? Higher population, proximity to a meteorology school, and more opportunities to be inspired by winter weather and thus join a board with a heavy focus on winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Impossible, with the elevated soil temperatures and what not............... Heck, i had ice form on the edge of our lake this morning. So much for super elevated water temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Are we preparing for glory next week? I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Agreed for most on here it probably won't and may not be anything for the central NC area. It is something to keep an eye on model trends and then real time obs as we get closer. The most likely scenario is what we love so much, the dreaded 33 and rain. The possibility exists for it being just cold enough for minor icing. Agree 100% just like I said yesterday I got three inches of snow last year when GSP had a 20% chance of snow for my neck of the woods. The only models to pick up on it were the hrr an nam the day/night before. Most definitely worth keeping an eye on ice can cause a lot of issues very quickly with very little qpf amounts. By the way really enjoy your posts along with several others. Thanks for the informative information! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Agree 100% just like I said yesterday I got three inches of snow last year when GSP had a 20% chance of snow for my neck of the woods. The only models to pick up on it were the hrr an nam the day/night before. Most definitely worth keeping an eye on ice can cause a lot of issues very quickly with very little qpf amounts. By the way really enjoy your posts along with several others. Thanks for the informative information! I always prefer informative information over the alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Here's the Euro at 216. The PV (in red) is in a great spot to promote confluence over the NE US. It is prevented from rapidly escaping by the block (in blue) immediately to its east. There is energy in the flow in the southern and northern stream (green Xs). The PNA ridge (in black) remains in place. High pressure works in and tracks nicely across the northern tier. Will the energy interact? It wouldn't take many adjustments on this map to produce a major SE winter storm. One thing is certain on the Euro, it's showing a cold pattern from about D6 on. The SHAFT index is now at around a 2. (image snipped) You know good times are ahead when we have some Cold Rain artwork and pattern discussion over some of the most pixelated, low-resolution maps around. Seriously, you do a great job explaining what's going on, CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 You know good times are ahead when we have some Cold Rain artwork and pattern discussion over some of the most pixelated, low-resolution maps around. Seriously, you do a great job explaining what's going on, CR. Haha thanks man. I haven't had much opportunity to dust off the mad MS Paint skilz this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Haha thanks man. I haven't had much opportunity to dust off the mad MS Paint skilz this year so far. I concur, I've learned alot from your posts over the years. You and several others to many to name Jon, NcRain ,ect is what makes this board great! Thanks to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I concur, I've learned alot from your posts over the years. You and several others to many to name Jon, NcRain ,ect is what makes this board great! Thanks to all! Thanks very much! I learn a lot from so many of the posters here. I appreciate folks taking the time to post maps, analogs, charts, and explanations. This is the first weather site I check every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I concur, I've learned alot from your posts over the years. You and several others to many to name Jon, NcRain ,ect is what makes this board great! Thanks to all! You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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