09-10 analogy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Here's a site -- maybe it's been posted already somewhere -- that archives NWS text products back a good number of years. It's got all the LWX products from 09-10: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?source=LWX&year=2016&month=1&day=15&year2=2016&month2=1&day2=18&view=time&order=asc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Gonna be an interesting first test for my new location. I definitely realize I will lose some snow due to my move south but I'm pretty intrigued by the rural aspect of ny location...longitude is same as my Leesburg location...altitude is similar...latitude obviously south...UHI non existent. I'm gonna need a different way to troll Phineas now...going to be easy to troll Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 She said her name is Palmala Handerson... from "the bay area" that sounds like a name some one would type into Google drunk looking for 90's porn pics...and Google would say "Did you mean Pamela Anderson you drunk bastard" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 hopefully we are not getting ahead of ourselves. we have been closer than this for sure and seen things turn for the worse. going from 20 inches to 15 or 10 is like who cares. But going from 20 to 2 or less is gut wrenching. I know we have great model consistency but nothing is ever sure around here until its actually snowing. Seems like the probability of the WAA part of the storm is pretty high even at 4 days out. Every single model from the all stars to the jv second string shows it. What happens after that is where the wheels can come off in a hurry. Unless we start losing the front side I'm fairly confident in a warning level event happening. 12z tomorrow is probably the earliest we can start feeling high confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Gonna be an interesting first test for my new location. I definitely realize I will lose some snow due to my move south but I'm pretty intrigued by the rural aspect of ny location...longitude is same as my Leesburg location...altitude is similar...latitude obviously south...UHI non existent. I'm gonna need a different way to troll Phineas now...going to be easy to troll Ji the R/S line usually sets up along 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Seems like the probability of the WAA part of the storm is pretty high even at 4 days out. Every single model from the all stars to the jv second string shows it. What happens after that is where the wheels can come off in a hurry. Unless we start losing the front side I'm fairly confident in a warning level event happening. 12z tomorrow is probably the earliest we can start feeling high confidence. I know. I was saying it more for my benefit so I am not looking for a ledge if things go south...or north...or west. who am I kidding I am sitting on a ledge right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Pray for the 6z GFS. I want so much snow from back-to-back storms that one day archaeologists dig down through the glacier pack to discover our civilization, buried under meters of snow, Pompeii style. Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I wish ers would talk more about the warm water and how it could screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Mark my words, LWX will do something weird with this storm. Like only hoist a WWA for DC due to "mixing." Can we talk about that drunk post you made last night doe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I wish ers would talk more about the warm water and how it could screw us. its a tropical snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 can someone make a list of all the models available (free) for people? Maybe a pinned thread with ONLY the links so everyone knows where to go? I don't have a clue where Para and stuff are... and hate having to ask people to tell me what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 can someone make a list of all the models available (free) for people? Maybe a pinned thread with ONLY the links so everyone knows where to go? I don't have a clue where Para and stuff are... and hate having to ask people to tell me what it looks like. Something like the old days of SACRUS (sp) storm tracking threads but with model links would definitely be useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 can someone make a list of all the models available (free) for people? Maybe a pinned thread with ONLY the links so everyone knows where to go? I don't have a clue where Para and stuff are... and hate having to ask people to tell me what it looks like. I've seen people mention instant weather maps, which I've used upon occasion of late. The NCEP site for the GFS/NAM is pretty slow and comes out later compared to where most people look. As for the GFS para, I don't have it bookmarked. But what I do is just go to the regular NCEP MAG page...and in the address change "mag" to "mageval" and you're there. The para page looks identical to the ops one in terms of how it's set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 can someone make a list of all the models available (free) for people? Maybe a pinned thread with ONLY the links so everyone knows where to go? I don't have a clue where Para and stuff are... and hate having to ask people to tell me what it looks like. Here's the para gfs MG. Just click which part you want. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20160112%2012%20UTC¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Thanks, AZ and WWL! Appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Mother nature always humbles me. It's amazing. I've learned over my years to respect it, never underestimate it and always think of every storm as a gift. This is truly amazing what we are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It will be even more amazing if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The new GFS para is ridiculous. Can't imagine that would verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm definitely saving these model runs, especially the 5H maps. Textbook progression of a significant Mid-Atl snowstorm as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 lol there's too many damn models. Gfs, gefs, para gfs, euro, eps, para euro, ggem, ukie, jma, ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The new GFS para is ridiculous. Can't imagine that would verify Well yea considering it just showed the biggest snowstorm in our history occurring... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 lol there's too many damn models. Gfs, gefs, para gfs, euro, eps, para euro, ggem, ukie, jma, ... 12z JMA looked okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 lol there's too many damn models. Gfs, gefs, para gfs, euro, eps, para euro, ggem, ukie, jma, ... I prefer the hot model model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It will be even more amazing if it happens LOL...yeah, it hasn't happened yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 12z gfs looks bad... ...at 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 12z gfs looks bad... ...at 9. #ItsOver #Next #meh #bringonspring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Hello you princes of Maryland, you kings of the Mid-Atlantic! Just stopping through -- taking a break from my incredibly busy schedule in the New England subforum -- to wish the Mid-Atlantic snow fiends the best of luck with the Friday-Saturday business. I know it's been a while since you got properly clocked; hoping it pans out for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 if there is just one crap run the weenie death total will be worse than the ebola outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I know, right? We still need to produce. Get your shovel ready dude. You're going to be burying people this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Hello you princes of Maryland, you kings of the Mid-Atlantic! Just stopping through -- taking a break from my incredibly busy schedule in the New England subforum -- to wish the Mid-Atlantic snow fiends the best of luck with the Friday-Saturday business. I know it's been a while since you got properly clocked; hoping it pans out for you. you are doing gods work up there so we appreciate any chance you grace us with your presence. Feel free to stop in anytime as we welcome old friends. Seriously, thanks for saying hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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