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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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The first low below 20 in NYC forecast  late on the 4th or early on the 5th is right in the middle of the 

pack since the winter of 09-10.

 

First low below 20 in NYC since 09-10:

 

January 4th-5th..15-16

January 6th........14-15

December 25th..13-14

January 22nd.....12-13

January 3rd........11-12

December 14th...10-11

December 18th...09-10

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City doesn't cool on radiational cooling enhanced by snow.

But, at night, snow on the ground readily gives off heat. This causes rapid cooling. Forecast the overnight temperature to be lower than you would predict if there was no snow cover. Reference: University of Illinois, 

Department of Atmospheric Sciences.
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'Well Stanley, this is another nice pattern change you've gotten me into'!   After 2BN days we get 8AN ones then 3 more BN then 2 that do not know which way they are going. 

Those last two better get out of town quick, seems more hot air on way for week 4.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016010318&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=725

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'Well Stanley, this is another nice pattern change you've gotten me into'! After 2BN days we get 8AN ones then 3 more BN then 2 that do not know which way they are going.

Those last two better get out of town quick, seems more hot air on way for week 4.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016010318&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=725

Because sure, we should go off the GFS OP instead of the EPS mean.

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'Well Stanley, this is another nice pattern change you've gotten me into'! After 2BN days we get 8AN ones then 3 more BN then 2 that do not know which way they are going.

Those last two better get out of town quick, seems more hot air on way for week 4.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016010318&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=725

Hold up, you are basing your theory of an AN temp pattern off of the 18z GFS? Look, im no scientist or pretend to know everything about meteo, but u clearly need to consider a new hobby because your basis for this supposed 'torch' January is severely flawed. -epo/-nao/+pna/-ao likely will send your prediction up in flames, no pun intended.
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