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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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First things first, this cold episode is completely and totally tropospherically driven. It was caused by the movement of tropical convective forcing in the pacific. It had absolutely, positively nothing whatsoever to do with the stratosphere. There was and is no SSW. That fantasy was totally wrong. The SSW prediction was an utter EPIC fail. Even Judah Cohen admits there is no semblance of a SSW. HM just tweeted that we are AT LEAST a month or longer away from one IF one EVEN happens this winter at all. Next, once this tropospheric forcing plays out, the Nino once again totally dominates, the STJ rages and we go back into above normal temps/below normal snow again. This is not a long term month after month change to cold and snowy, super -EPO like the last 3 winters. Not even close, if people think that is what is going to happen this winter, they will be very sorely wrong and very sorely disappointed. There wasn't a super El Nino the last 3 winters. There is absolutely no signs of the stratosphere changing anytime soon, so once this anomaly in the troposphere plays out, goodbye high latitude blocking, hello Nino and raging STJ on roids. A temp of +2.8C in region 3.4 isn't just going to disappear and the effects on the long wave synoptic pattern are going to be huge. With no stratospheric change, there is no, repeat no other player but El Niño. I suspect the models will continue to back off on the long term blocking and cold, as they did last night at 0z. Once the tropospheric plays itself out, there is nothing to sustain the change

 

 

Disagree. Dr. Cohen discussed in his latest blog how the changes in stratospheric circulation are impacting the troposphere. Your comment that the pattern has nothing to do with the stratosphere is false. Just because we haven't seen a SSW, doesn't mean the stratosphere isn't influencing the troposphere. There are other incorrect points in there as well, but I don't have time to respond right now.

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One of several reason from back in July / August and then all the way until now of the call of a turn in the 2nd half of winter has been aided by the record breaking Regions of 3.4 and 4 .

The effect "are going to be huge " , the problem some may have is does not break the way of the warmer guidance . It is actually what will help the cold to get forced into the east .

It is why we obsessed that the NINO would go basin wide and basin wide forcing helps set up the PAC signal you see setting up as it sticks a trough in the East in the means .

The CFS continues to move the forcing east and it is missing where the forcing is stuck Not only will these Western anomalies not disappear they are continuing to benefit the forecast of the best OLR/convection to stay between 160 and 180 .

It helps give you this look J-M in the means .(Euro seasonal ) .

post-7472-0-49550300-1451756659_thumb.pn

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What's the model showing for the 5 days Inc today ? That's all I care about.

It was plus 8 for this period 10 days ago . Starting today what does it have beginning today ending in 5 days.

We already know 7 8 9 are above before we get COLD. So they are not be used if it is still not seeing this MISSED initial cold shot.

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the kara ridge was pumped up by the record north atlantic storm. the SSW crowd was wrong about this too, there's no SSW driving this

 

The the record low sea ice extent there may have also helped the extreme -500 to -600 meter anomalies

with the Kara ridge that is building back across the pole. The strong blocking pattern also matches the MJO

7 composite for an El Nino. We can probably blame the very active MJO for such a strong El Nino

on the record warm IO eastward through the Central Pacific.

 

 

A link between reduced BarentsKara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/2009JD013568/asset/jgrd16263.pdf;jsessionid=03336127CB3ED65A90C59076EE54F54A.f04t01?v=1&t=iixpzxz4&s=d43e89f01242d657d23783d7baf9b535710fd421

 

 

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While the details will have to wait, days 7-10 on both the Euro look potentially stormy

as the vortex presses east with a raging STJ. This is the kind of pattern where each

run can have a different solution before we settle down in the 120 hr and lower range.

The disturbance or disturbances pull the vortex east.

 

 

 

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While the details will have to wait, days 7-10 on both the Euro look potentially stormy

as the vortex presses east with a raging STJ. This is the kind of pattern where each

run can have a different solution before we settle down in the 120 hr and lower range.

The disturbance or disturbances pull the vortex east.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

All the s/w in the pattern will make it hard for the models to figure out this far out....looks above avg for some type of winter storm or storms and that's all you can ask for at this point

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All the s/w in the pattern will make it hard for the models to figure out this far out....looks above avg for some type of winter storm or storms and that's all you can ask for at this point

 

Yeah, the OP Euro is probably still just another ensemble member until we resolve the finer details around and

under 120 hrs.

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Third day in January, third day of above average temperatures, third day of NYC failing to go below freezing.

 

 

Day 1 of the 2nd -6th  forecast period . N 40/30 - will become 39/28 

 

2    40    32    36 

 

Lets circle back on the 6th , you keep track ok 

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First things first, this cold episode is completely and totally tropospherically driven. It was caused by the movement of tropical convective forcing in the pacific. It had absolutely, positively nothing whatsoever to do with the stratosphere. There was and is no SSW. That fantasy was totally wrong. The SSW prediction was an utter EPIC fail. Even Judah Cohen admits there is no semblance of a SSW. HM just tweeted that we are AT LEAST a month or longer away from one IF one EVEN happens this winter at all. Next, once this tropospheric forcing plays out, the Nino once again totally dominates, the STJ rages and we go back into above normal temps/below normal snow again. This is not a long term month after month change to cold and snowy, super -EPO like the last 3 winters. Not even close, if people think that is what is going to happen this winter, they will be very sorely wrong and very sorely disappointed. There wasn't a super El Nino the last 3 winters. There is absolutely no signs of the stratosphere changing anytime soon, so once this anomaly in the troposphere plays out, goodbye high latitude blocking, hello Nino and raging STJ on roids. A temp of +2.8C in region 3.4 isn't just going to disappear and the effects on the long wave synoptic pattern are going to be huge. With no stratospheric change, there is no, repeat no other player but El Niño. I suspect the models will continue to back off on the long term blocking and cold, as they did last night at 0z. Once the tropospheric plays itself out, there is nothing to sustain the change

This post has people talking, I'll give you that.

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