Isotherm Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 First things first, this cold episode is completely and totally tropospherically driven. It was caused by the movement of tropical convective forcing in the pacific. It had absolutely, positively nothing whatsoever to do with the stratosphere. There was and is no SSW. That fantasy was totally wrong. The SSW prediction was an utter EPIC fail. Even Judah Cohen admits there is no semblance of a SSW. HM just tweeted that we are AT LEAST a month or longer away from one IF one EVEN happens this winter at all. Next, once this tropospheric forcing plays out, the Nino once again totally dominates, the STJ rages and we go back into above normal temps/below normal snow again. This is not a long term month after month change to cold and snowy, super -EPO like the last 3 winters. Not even close, if people think that is what is going to happen this winter, they will be very sorely wrong and very sorely disappointed. There wasn't a super El Nino the last 3 winters. There is absolutely no signs of the stratosphere changing anytime soon, so once this anomaly in the troposphere plays out, goodbye high latitude blocking, hello Nino and raging STJ on roids. A temp of +2.8C in region 3.4 isn't just going to disappear and the effects on the long wave synoptic pattern are going to be huge. With no stratospheric change, there is no, repeat no other player but El Niño. I suspect the models will continue to back off on the long term blocking and cold, as they did last night at 0z. Once the tropospheric plays itself out, there is nothing to sustain the change Disagree. Dr. Cohen discussed in his latest blog how the changes in stratospheric circulation are impacting the troposphere. Your comment that the pattern has nothing to do with the stratosphere is false. Just because we haven't seen a SSW, doesn't mean the stratosphere isn't influencing the troposphere. There are other incorrect points in there as well, but I don't have time to respond right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 One of several reason from back in July / August and then all the way until now of the call of a turn in the 2nd half of winter has been aided by the record breaking Regions of 3.4 and 4 . The effect "are going to be huge " , the problem some may have is does not break the way of the warmer guidance . It is actually what will help the cold to get forced into the east . It is why we obsessed that the NINO would go basin wide and basin wide forcing helps set up the PAC signal you see setting up as it sticks a trough in the East in the means . The CFS continues to move the forcing east and it is missing where the forcing is stuck Not only will these Western anomalies not disappear they are continuing to benefit the forecast of the best OLR/convection to stay between 160 and 180 . It helps give you this look J-M in the means .(Euro seasonal ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 First 9 days of the month figuring to come in near +4. If we can keep this under +5.3, we can recover our "MIA month of December". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 First 9 days of the month figuring to come in near +4. If we can keep this under +5.3, we can recover our "MIA month of December". Using what guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 First 9 days of the month figuring to come in near +4. If we can keep this under +5.3, we can recover our "MIA month of December". At least half of those days will be at or below normal. What model is showing plus 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Either the CFS or the GFSx would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 What's the model showing for the 5 days Inc today ? That's all I care about. It was plus 8 for this period 10 days ago . Starting today what does it have beginning today ending in 5 days. We already know 7 8 9 are above before we get COLD. So they are not be used if it is still not seeing this MISSED initial cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 When are people going to understand that you don't need an actual SSW for the Stratosphere to have affects on the Tropospheric pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 back in January 1966 it turned cold after a warm New Years Day...we had a few cold shots but no real snow until the 23rd...then another three events followed within a two week period...I can see this year being similar...only time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 the kara ridge was pumped up by the record north atlantic storm. the SSW crowd was wrong about this too, there's no SSW driving this The the record low sea ice extent there may have also helped the extreme -500 to -600 meter anomalies with the Kara ridge that is building back across the pole. The strong blocking pattern also matches the MJO 7 composite for an El Nino. We can probably blame the very active MJO for such a strong El Nino on the record warm IO eastward through the Central Pacific. A link between reduced Barents‐Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/2009JD013568/asset/jgrd16263.pdf;jsessionid=03336127CB3ED65A90C59076EE54F54A.f04t01?v=1&t=iixpzxz4&s=d43e89f01242d657d23783d7baf9b535710fd421 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Using what guidance? probably accuweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Down to 26 good to be back to normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Down to 26 good to be back to normal LGA still stuck at 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 27F, feels brutal out compared to last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 LGA still stuck at 37. Glad I don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 CMC also has us in the teens on Wednesday morning and again on Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 27F, feels brutal out compared to last week.It's so sad that temps in the 20's are considered frigid (in January!). We've been spoiled by the record warm Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 While the details will have to wait, days 7-10 on both the Euro look potentially stormy as the vortex presses east with a raging STJ. This is the kind of pattern where each run can have a different solution before we settle down in the 120 hr and lower range. The disturbance or disturbances pull the vortex east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 While the details will have to wait, days 7-10 on both the Euro look potentially stormy as the vortex presses east with a raging STJ. This is the kind of pattern where each run can have a different solution before we settle down in the 120 hr and lower range. The disturbance or disturbances pull the vortex east. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png All the s/w in the pattern will make it hard for the models to figure out this far out....looks above avg for some type of winter storm or storms and that's all you can ask for at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 All the s/w in the pattern will make it hard for the models to figure out this far out....looks above avg for some type of winter storm or storms and that's all you can ask for at this point Yeah, the OP Euro is probably still just another ensemble member until we resolve the finer details around and under 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 All the s/w in the pattern will make it hard for the models to figure out this far out....looks above avg for some type of winter storm or storms and that's all you can ask for at this pointSpot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Third day in January, third day of above average temperatures, third day of NYC failing to go below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Third day in January, third day of above average temperatures, third day of NYC failing to go below freezing. Day 1 of the 2nd -6th forecast period . N 40/30 - will become 39/28 2 40 32 36 Lets circle back on the 6th , you keep track ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Day 1 of the 2nd -6th forecast period . N 40/30 - will become 39/29 2 40 32 36 Lets circle back on the 6th , you keep track ok LOL. No scarcasm here within 72 hrs we will be below avg. for the month obviocusly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 First things first, this cold episode is completely and totally tropospherically driven. It was caused by the movement of tropical convective forcing in the pacific. It had absolutely, positively nothing whatsoever to do with the stratosphere. There was and is no SSW. That fantasy was totally wrong. The SSW prediction was an utter EPIC fail. Even Judah Cohen admits there is no semblance of a SSW. HM just tweeted that we are AT LEAST a month or longer away from one IF one EVEN happens this winter at all. Next, once this tropospheric forcing plays out, the Nino once again totally dominates, the STJ rages and we go back into above normal temps/below normal snow again. This is not a long term month after month change to cold and snowy, super -EPO like the last 3 winters. Not even close, if people think that is what is going to happen this winter, they will be very sorely wrong and very sorely disappointed. There wasn't a super El Nino the last 3 winters. There is absolutely no signs of the stratosphere changing anytime soon, so once this anomaly in the troposphere plays out, goodbye high latitude blocking, hello Nino and raging STJ on roids. A temp of +2.8C in region 3.4 isn't just going to disappear and the effects on the long wave synoptic pattern are going to be huge. With no stratospheric change, there is no, repeat no other player but El Niño. I suspect the models will continue to back off on the long term blocking and cold, as they did last night at 0z. Once the tropospheric plays itself out, there is nothing to sustain the change This post has people talking, I'll give you that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Day 1 of the 2nd -6th forecast period . N 40/30 - will become 39/29 2 40 32 36 Lets circle back on the 6th , you keep track ok Correction on your averages: Today: 39/28, tomorrow 39/27, Tuesday 38/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Correction on your averages: Today: 39/28, tomorrow 39/27, Tuesday 38/27. Check back on the 6th - we will beat those too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 the PNA/AO/NAO are moving into or are already in a favorable zone...only time will tell if we see any snow from this pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 the PNA/AO/NAO are moving into or are already in a favorable zone...only time will tell if we see any snow from this pattern... The NAO forecast improved now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 NAM has 11/25 for Tuesday. It also had the city below freezing at 12z in today's 12z run, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.