PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Horrific BUST by WPC the GFS and the CFS, totally missing the next 5 day cold shot . They never saw a hint of it. I would not worry about any 1 system. The pattern was not seen by the US LR guidance so I don't expect them to ever see any 1 storm from a distance either. ( Any 1 storm is not the story ) the pattern is Either way , the pattern change is the story. Complete whiff by the CFS. Their 8 to 14 that was still warm a day ago will be the next BUST. If the tools are bad , so will the carpenter. Major hat tip to the Euro on the pattern change . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 GFS global http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=00-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1 Watch that persistent El Nino Gyre in the Gulf of Alaska It sucks the life out of the Arctic cold shot into the Northeast just an amazing loop of the big picture show..... ESRL ens run--- shunts the bulk of any precip off the coast an OTS http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_ussm_animation.html Very good points Doorman. You can clearly see the Nino domination of this pattern, energy constantly crashing into the west coast. It will not be denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Very good points Doorman. You can clearly see the Nino domination of this pattern, energy constantly crashing into the west coast. It will not be denied Meanwhile all the ensembles continue to show an -EPO/-AO pattern as we head into he long range. It's a pattern change pure and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Lol the entire warm idea is being denied. The GFS Is being denied. The CFS is being denied , you know what's not being denied ? The cold . Bundle up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Lol the entire warm idea is being denied. The GFS Is being denied. The CFS is being denied , you know what's not being denied ? The cold . Bundle up well said ..I think in between cold their will be moderation ..but only a brief spell then back to cold ..I believe like PB said,isotherm, earth light ..key dates to watch after Jan 15.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Lol the entire warm idea is being denied. The GFS Is being denied. The CFS is being denied , you know what's not being denied ? The cold . Bundle up Funny how some are using the warm guidance to back up their wrong ideas. Pattern change is here!!! Oh and the ground is frozen here for the first time this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Arctic intrusions still show up modified for the Northeast -ATM- 06z GFS global continues with that prog click the link please http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=06-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The American based guidance is still playing catch up with the Day 1-15 EPS which caught on to the cold first. EPS have a colder look to it like the CMC. We get the first Arctic shot this week which was missed with NYC falling into the teens. Between January 10-20 there will be more lows in the teens for NYC. The only question is if the Arctic cold dropping down after the 10th will be strong enough for NYC to drop below 10 or it dumps far enough west for NYC to drop to the 10-20 degree range for coldest temperature of January. Fair Enough BW but I won't hang my hat on just one ens model..... GEFS loop keeps the modified trends in tact FWIW http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=06-GEFS-NA-850-temp-0-1 Snowstorms are what the peeps will be looking for in JAN-FEB till I can buy in on one ,tracking is dull as hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 At least for now (with just the 00Z GFS, 2 Jan and far out we see a pattern of cold and dry followed by moderation in temps and a chance of rain from a coastal storm. Seven days out so bound to be changes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Fair Enough BW but I won't hang my hat on just one ens model..... GEFS loop keeps the modified trends in tact FWIW http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=06-GEFS-NA-850-temp-0-1 Snowstorms are what the peeps will be looking for in JAN-FEB till I can buy in on one ,tracking is dull as hell It's not one model. It's every model that shows a big pattern change. The prolonged warmth is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 That's the issue-it can be as cold as it wants, but too cold is just going to give us dry and then we have to wait (like some of the other years which featured cold and dry in January and then goods came in Feb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 This looks pretty good to me. +PNA -EPO -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Here is why this pattern change is a bid deal . You just finished an anomalously warm Dec and just the hint of N in early and mid Jan when N means 38/28 is a real step down .But as opined a million times now , the entire field at 500 has totally flipped . And a lot quicker than I even thought . I had always opined all the way back in the ENSO thread I liked Jan 15 .But by Dec 18 the Euro caught it and I went Jan 1 . Non of this appeared in 98 , so that analog is DEAD . Much to the chagrin of the aforementioned.As a side note I have been saying the moderation day 7-10 is transient , the ridge flies right through the flow . It is in and it is out .....If one wants to see how this ends up colder they can scroll back and I show you that low level directly discharged ARCTIC is underdone on the model in the L/R .It is why starting today day 1-5 are below N . Look at how cold those anomalies/actual forecast temps are now , just compared to the old day 15 . How did I catch it ?-EPO/+PNA regimes force the jet off Asia the air travels over the arctic and maintains its stability as the ridge stays situated on the west shores of HB , HP ( cold HP) rolls off the backside of the ridge and never gets a chance to moderate .Now look at day 10-15 . You can see its look at 500mb and look how cold the warm EC biased Euro is saying that air is ?That DOES NOT MODERATE as we get closer , it will get COLDER once again in the means .So day 10 - 20 is liable to give you 10 days of - 5 and in the coldest part of winter against the norms that`s really COLD .For now here is your pattern change , here is your turn to COLD by mid month . The 1st 20 days Jan are N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 you kept going on about the pacific but it was an atlantic event that brought about the ao drop... nobody saw it happening this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 you kept going on about the pacific but it was an atlantic event that brought about the ao drop... nobody saw it happening this way Once that ridge went up east of the Caspian and you had a record KARA sea block that has helped turn the AO . This 1st week has been set off by a -EPO+PNA forcing of cold air into the east . That regime negates this area getting warm for too long . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 the kara ridge was pumped up by the record north atlantic storm. the SSW crowd was wrong about this too, there's no SSW driving this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I think it needs to be stressed that next week was always suppose to be a cutter and the start of the week was for a cold shot. The week of the 12th is a all out weenie pattern for a snow storm in the area...but keep in mind all great patterns don't always produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 the kara ridge was pumped up by the record north atlantic storm. the SSW crowd was wrong about this too, there's no SSW driving this Agree with this...actually there is no sign of a SSW right now...that's why some feel we break down the patten after week 3 and go back to a pac flow. Wil be interesting to see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 the kara ridge was pumped up by the record north atlantic storm. the SSW crowd was wrong about this too, there's no SSW driving this I have never included this is any of my guidance ... This we agree on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I think it needs to be stressed that next week was always suppose to be a cutter and the start of the week was for a cold shot. The week of the 12th is a all out weenie pattern for a snow storm in the area...but keep in mind all great patterns don't always produce it actually looks cold and dry to me in lala range. i don't like the trough position (slightly west of us is ideal) and the PV doesn't truly break up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 the kara ridge was pumped up by the record north atlantic storm. the SSW crowd was wrong about this too, there's no SSW driving this Couldn't agree more. The Kara ridge pressed south on the Arctic which flipped the AO to negative. The pattern looks great in the long range, we shall see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 the kara ridge was pumped up by the record north atlantic storm. the SSW crowd was wrong about this too, there's no SSW driving this That storm flew under the hype radar for whatever reason. Sub-930 mb is very impressive, even for NAtl super-ETs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 it actually looks cold and dry to me in lala range. i don't like the trough position (slightly west of us is ideal) and the PV doesn't truly break up I guess we would need a sw piece to phase into the Pv or its ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 It isn't just the kara ridge that's flipping the AO negative. What's the cause of the Pacific side mid level ridge extension, poleward into the Arctic, which then maintains over the next couple weeks? There are multiple factors involved. The stratospheric Aleutian high pressing up against the vortex is decelerating the Pacific jet and promoting the development of NPAC blocking. Tropical forcing retrogression has also been involved with this. It is correct that a "SSW" has not caused the upcoming regime, but the stratospheric circulation changes are related to the developing tropospheric pattern. The Kara sea ridge is one symptom of the larger-scale forcing which caused it to develop. There is no SSW on model guidance right now, but I would continue to watch for late January (Jan 20th +/- 5 days has been my thinking for a possible event). Regardless, the tropospheric pattern is evolving as anticipated. January should be colder than normal temperature wise (Jan 1941 type departures possibly; -1 to -2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The last 10 days of Jan pull back on the weeklies and after where we go from day 10-20 are going it will seem warm . But it`s probably a week to 10 days of plus 5 . Again N splits are 38/28 . So it`s not a torch by any measure . After that the ridge retreats and the trough is back in the SE/MA as we head into FEB . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 It isn't just the kara ridge that's flipping the AO negative. What's the cause of the Pacific side mid level ridge extension, poleward into the Arctic, which then maintains over the next couple weeks? There are multiple factors involved. The stratospheric Aleutian high pressing up against the vortex is decelerating the Pacific jet and promoting the development of NPAC blocking. Tropical forcing retrogression has also been involved with this. It is correct that a "SSW" has not caused the upcoming regime, but the stratospheric circulation changes are related to the developing tropospheric pattern. The Kara sea ridge is one symptom of the larger-scale forcing which caused it to develop. There is no SSW on model guidance right now, but I would continue to watch for late January (Jan 20th +/- 5 days has been my thinking for a possible event). Regardless, the tropospheric pattern is evolving as anticipated. January should be colder than normal temperature wise (Jan 1941 type departures possibly; -1 to -2). It would be getting kind of late for a SSW to help us in Feb if it occurs after the 20th I would think...perhaps make for a cool spring? That doesn't mean all is lossed as a wave one attack can help us like it did last Feb. On the flip side it would be another loss for the SSW crew and the snow cover theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 First things first, this cold episode is completely and totally tropospherically driven. It was caused by the movement of tropical convective forcing in the pacific. It had absolutely, positively nothing whatsoever to do with the stratosphere. There was and is no SSW. That fantasy was totally wrong. The SSW prediction was an utter EPIC fail. Even Judah Cohen admits there is no semblance of a SSW. HM just tweeted that we are AT LEAST a month or longer away from one IF one EVEN happens this winter at all. Next, once this tropospheric forcing plays out, the Nino once again totally dominates, the STJ rages and we go back into above normal temps/below normal snow again. This is not a long term month after month change to cold and snowy, super -EPO like the last 3 winters. Not even close, if people think that is what is going to happen this winter, they will be very sorely wrong and very sorely disappointed. There wasn't a super El Nino the last 3 winters. There is absolutely no signs of the stratosphere changing anytime soon, so once this anomaly in the troposphere plays out, goodbye high latitude blocking, hello Nino and raging STJ on roids. A temp of +2.8C in region 3.4 isn't just going to disappear and the effects on the long wave synoptic pattern are going to be huge. With no stratospheric change, there is no, repeat no other player but El Niño. I suspect the models will continue to back off on the long term blocking and cold, as they did last night at 0z. Once the tropospheric plays itself out, there is nothing to sustain the change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 It would be getting kind of late for a SSW to help us in Feb if it occurs after the 20th I would think...perhaps make for a cool spring? That doesn't mean all is lossed as a wave one attack can help us like it did last Feb. On the flip side it would be another loss for the SSW crew and the snow cover theory. The majority of SSW events actually occur in mid-late winter, centered on February. It's uncommon to see a SSW prior to Jan 10th, and extremely rare before January 1st. The 2006-07 SSW event occurred on February 24th, which aided in the cold pattern Feb 1st-March. Once you get to March, SSW's don't mean much. We'll see how it goes. But my winter outlook at least, did not hinge upon achieving a SSW. There were numerous other indicators which argued for the developing pattern. Stratospheric guidance is very fickle, and events detected tend to be a bit of a surprise. We need to watch for the PV tilt structure as that will increase vulnerability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 First things first, this cold episode is completely and totally tropospherically driven. It was caused by the movement of tropical convective forcing in the pacific. It had absolutely, positively nothing whatsoever to do with the stratosphere. There was and is no SSW. That fantasy was totally wrong. The SSW prediction was an utter EPIC fail. Even Judah Cohen admits there is no semblance of a SSW. HM just tweeted that we are AT LEAST a month or longer away from one IF one EVEN happens this winter at all. Next, once this tropospheric forcing plays out, the Nino once again totally dominates, the STJ rages and we go back into above normal temps/below normal snow again. This is not a long term month after month change to cold and snowy, super -EPO like the last 3 winters. Not even close, if people think that is what is going to happen this winter, they will be very sorely wrong and very sorely disappointed. There wasn't a super El Nino the last 3 winters. There is absolutely no signs of the stratosphere changing anytime soon, so once this anomaly in the troposphere plays out, goodbye high latitude blocking, hello Nino and raging STJ on roids. A temp of +2.8C in region 3.4 isn't just going to disappear and the effects on the long wave synoptic pattern are going to be huge. With no stratospheric change, there is no, repeat no other player but El Niño. I suspect the models will continue to back off on the long term blocking and cold, as they did last night at 0z. Once the tropospheric plays itself out, there is nothing to sustain the change Climo and Nino argue we will have a favorable period again in Febuary...way to early to toss it. I can see pattern relaxation after the 20th...but I doubt we go back to +30 departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The majority of SSW events actually occur in mid-late winter, centered on February. It's uncommon to see a SSW prior to Jan 10th, and extremely rare before January 1st. The 2006-07 SSW event occurred on February 24th, which aided in the cold pattern Feb 1st-March. Once you get to March, SSW's don't mean much. We'll see how it goes. But my winter outlook at least, did not hinge upon achieving a SSW. There were numerous other indicators which argued for the developing pattern. Stratospheric guidance is very fickle, and events detected tend to be a bit of a surprise. We need to watch for the PV tilt structure as that will increase vulnerability. Thanks Tom...regardless Nino February should at least give us a shot at some point...i think the PV being so strong to start kind of put a damper on things...as the wave one attack just brought it back to a normal Pv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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