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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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The 12/31/15 Climate Prediction Center Long Range Outlook gave NYC an equal chance of either a normal, below normal, or above normal month concerning precipitation and temperature so time will tell since it is just January 1st.   Short range does look cold but dry!

And this is the thing, dry. So while we are walloped with possible temps in the 20's , in the historical frame work: Big deal, it is early January and that is to be expected with any arctic outbreak. And as of right now our closest snow chance remains 8 days+ out so Ill hold off on excitement till we are 3-4 days out. I think we have to temper expectations here.

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Anything below +3.2 will pass the D to J 84-85 step down of -15 degrees from 43.8 to 28.8.

 

With the historic December 50.8 NYC average temperature, I calculated the drop for various departures

from the January 32.6 average.

 

+3......-15.2 drop

0........-18.2 drop

-3.......-21.2 drop

1856-57 has the record for the biggest drop from December...-18.0...records from Governors Island...it should be used as a guide and not absolute daily max/min average...I don't know how these numbers were calculated...

year.....Jan..Feb..Mar..Apr..May.June July..Aug..Sep..Oct..Nov..Dec..Annual

1822..26.2 29.8 42.1 52.4 63.4 70.6 78.4 74.6 70.9 59.1 48.4 34.5 54.2

1823..31.2 25.3 36.4 49.6 59.8 68.9 74.9 73.4 64.1 51.8 38.2 34.7 50.5

1824..35.3 31.3 37.6 49.9 58.0 68.3 73.6 70.4 64.1 55.1 42.7 38.5 52.1

1825..32.7 32.6 43.7 51.3 62.5 74.6 81.3 74.0 67.4 57.1 43.9 31.7 54.4

1826..28.9 31.3 37.7 43.3 64.9 69.8 75.9 75.9 68.8 56.5 43.7 33.1 52.5

1827..24.0 31.9 39.3 52.1 59.5 68.6 75.6 74.3 67.1 55.9 39.7 33.2 52.5

1828..33.6 41.3 40.7 45.3 60.1 72.2 74.7 76.5 66.8 53.4 44.9 38.7 54.0

1829..27.1 25.4 37.9 52.3 63.8 71.1 73.7 75.0 64.1 54.8 43.9 41.3 52.5

1830..31.7 31.9 41.1 52.9 60.3 70.4 78.7 77.1 67.1 58.7 51.1 36.9 54.8

1831..25.7 26.3 42.0 50.0 61.2 74.1 76.4 76.4 66.9 55.4 43.3 22.2 51.6

1832..28.5 32.3 39.0 48.3 56.1 67.1 73.3 73.2 65.4 54.1 44.7 36.4 51.5

1833..35.1 30.9 35.9 51.3 60.7 66.1 74.7 70.6 64.8 52.2 41.5 34.6 51.5

1834..28.3 37.2 39.6 48.5 56.5 66.7 76.2 71.8 64.2 51.6 41.0 30.7 51.0

1835..29.4 27.2 35.6 45.6 58.4 67.1 72.5 69.8 60.7 56.4 43.8 28.4 49.6

1836..27.8 21.5 32.2 44.3 58.0 62.3 73.0 67.9 64.0 45.8 38.7 31.2 47.6

1837..26.3 29.8 34.9 46.0 55.3 64.5 69.5 68.6 62.2 52.9 44.0 35.6 49.1

1838..34.5 23.3 37.8 44.2 56.2 70.4 77.2 77.4 65.4 51.7 40.0 29.1 50.3

1839..30.5 31.9 38.6 49.8 57.8 63.4 73.0 70.8 66.7 56.3 39.9 35.6 51.2

1840..23.8 34.8 40.3 51.5 58.8 67.0 72.3 73.3 64.0 55.2 43.6 30.3 51.2

1841..30.8 28.1 37.4 46.0 56.5 69.1 73.9 73.4 68.6 51.8 44.9 33.8 51.2

1842..33.7 38.1 44.6 51.5 58.5 67.2 74.4 72.9 67.1 51.7 39.2 32.1 53.4

1843..36.5 25.7 30.3 47.3 59.1 71.2 74.1 74.3 68.0 53.7 40.5 36.1 51.4

1844..25.7 29.7 38.8 53.5 63.3 69.2 74.5 72.9 65.8 53.5 43.3 34.0 52.0

1845..35.0 31.9 42.1 50.8 60.5 71.3 76.6 76.0 65.5 55.3 45.7 38.3 53.3

1846..31.4 27.4 39.3 50.3 60.4 67.4 72.2 73.2 69.7 54.0 48.1 33.9 52.3

1847..32.4 31.6 36.0 49.5 59.5 70.8 75.6 72.3 64.7 51.4 46.0 37.9 52.3

1848..33.8 31.2 36.1 50.1 61.4 69.1 74.3 73.5 63.4 54.1 39.7 39.3 52.3

1849..25.8 24.7 37.8 47.5 55.0 69.5 72.8 72.3 64.3 52.6 48.2 32.1 50.2

1850..32.8 33.4 36.2 44.1 54.4 68.6 75.1 71.0 64.3 53.8 45.2 33.2 50.9

1851..32.1 33.7 39.7 49.1 58.2 68.4 75.6 74.0 69.7 57.3 42.2 37.4 52.1

1852..24.3 30.7 36.7 43.7 60.3 69.7 76.6 73.3 63.8 55.6 46.1 40.4 51.4

1853..32.1 32.5 39.6 48.1 60.2 71.2 72.8 73.5 66.4 52.0 44.3 33.1 52.2

1854..28.7 28.2 36.2 45.1 59.9 68.5 75.9 72.9 66.4 55.7 43.7 27.5 50.7

1855..31.2 23.9 36.0 46.6 58.6 68.1 75.6 70.6 65.6 53.3 44.6 34.7 50.7

1856..21.9 23.9 30.8 49.9 57.6 71.1 74.6 71.7 66.7 51.5 42.6 37.6 50.0

1857..19.6 34.5 35.3 43.3 58.2 68.7 74.0 72.7 64.8 53.3 42.5 36.9 50.0

1858..35.3 24.5 35.0 47.9 56.1 72.3 74.6 71.7 65.4 56.6 40.1 32.9 51.0

1859..24.5 33.1 43.9 48.3 61.0 67.3 73.2 72.6 63.8 50.5 45.4 30.0 51.4

1860..30.1 29.0 41.1 47.3 59.7 70.1 74.4 73.8 64.1 55.6 46.1 30.8 51.9

1861..28.9 35.5 37.5 49.9 56.6 70.2 74.6 72.1 66.9 59.6 43.9 34.8 52.7

1862..29.4 30.0 36.9 47.7 61.0 68.3 74.1 74.4 67.9 57.6 44.1 33.8 52.1

1863..34.2 31.4 33.6 48.2 61.8 67.2 76.5 76.8 63.3 55.1 46.6 32.8 52.3

1864..30.4 32.6 38.3 47.7 63.2 70.0 74.1 76.2 63.8 54.1 46.1 35.9 52.7

1865..24.7 30.9 43.3 52.4 61.3 73.9 75.4 72.9 71.1 54.2 45.9 37.2 53.6

1866..27.5 31.5 37.5 51.2 58.4 70.2 78.6 69.4 67.5 56.5 46.2 33.2 52.6

1867..24.2 37.3 36.3 49.7 56.7 69.5 73.3 73.9 66.6 55.5 44.2 28.5 51.1

1868..25.4 22.5 37.2 44.8 55.9 68.1 78.4 75.1 66.5 52.4 43.4 29.4 50.0

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GFS global

 

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=00-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1

 

Watch that persistent El Nino  Gyre in the Gulf of Alaska

It sucks the life out of the Arctic cold shot into the Northeast

 

 just an amazing loop of the big picture show..... :popcorn:

 

ESRL  ens run---

shunts the bulk of any precip off the coast an OTS

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_ussm_animation.html

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