nyblizz44 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The 12/31/15 Climate Prediction Center Long Range Outlook gave NYC an equal chance of either a normal, below normal, or above normal month concerning precipitation and temperature so time will tell since it is just January 1st. Short range does look cold but dry! And this is the thing, dry. So while we are walloped with possible temps in the 20's , in the historical frame work: Big deal, it is early January and that is to be expected with any arctic outbreak. And as of right now our closest snow chance remains 8 days+ out so Ill hold off on excitement till we are 3-4 days out. I think we have to temper expectations here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 GFS is also similiar. GFS has highs in the mid 20s on Tuesday. Yes, and inland might even have mid 20s on Monday as well. That'll be a huge shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Mlk 2000 had a similar cold bust. I remember temps getting stuck in the mid teens all day and off by about 10 degrees from the predicted high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Park is still at 40 at 12 pm. Is the midnight high of 42 going to be the daily high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Things get rather stormy on the 12z GFS mid-month when the STJ really kicks up. First snow threat should be around the 11th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Things get rather stormy on the 12z GFS mid-month when the STJ really kicks up. First snow threat should be around the 11th or so. Nice to see the potential . This run buries D.C. Many more solutions to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Anything below +3.2 will pass the D to J 84-85 step down of -15 degrees from 43.8 to 28.8. With the historic December 50.8 NYC average temperature, I calculated the drop for various departures from the January 32.6 average. +3......-15.2 drop 0........-18.2 drop -3.......-21.2 drop 1856-57 has the record for the biggest drop from December...-18.0...records from Governors Island...it should be used as a guide and not absolute daily max/min average...I don't know how these numbers were calculated... year.....Jan..Feb..Mar..Apr..May.June July..Aug..Sep..Oct..Nov..Dec..Annual 1822..26.2 29.8 42.1 52.4 63.4 70.6 78.4 74.6 70.9 59.1 48.4 34.5 54.2 1823..31.2 25.3 36.4 49.6 59.8 68.9 74.9 73.4 64.1 51.8 38.2 34.7 50.5 1824..35.3 31.3 37.6 49.9 58.0 68.3 73.6 70.4 64.1 55.1 42.7 38.5 52.1 1825..32.7 32.6 43.7 51.3 62.5 74.6 81.3 74.0 67.4 57.1 43.9 31.7 54.4 1826..28.9 31.3 37.7 43.3 64.9 69.8 75.9 75.9 68.8 56.5 43.7 33.1 52.5 1827..24.0 31.9 39.3 52.1 59.5 68.6 75.6 74.3 67.1 55.9 39.7 33.2 52.5 1828..33.6 41.3 40.7 45.3 60.1 72.2 74.7 76.5 66.8 53.4 44.9 38.7 54.0 1829..27.1 25.4 37.9 52.3 63.8 71.1 73.7 75.0 64.1 54.8 43.9 41.3 52.5 1830..31.7 31.9 41.1 52.9 60.3 70.4 78.7 77.1 67.1 58.7 51.1 36.9 54.8 1831..25.7 26.3 42.0 50.0 61.2 74.1 76.4 76.4 66.9 55.4 43.3 22.2 51.6 1832..28.5 32.3 39.0 48.3 56.1 67.1 73.3 73.2 65.4 54.1 44.7 36.4 51.5 1833..35.1 30.9 35.9 51.3 60.7 66.1 74.7 70.6 64.8 52.2 41.5 34.6 51.5 1834..28.3 37.2 39.6 48.5 56.5 66.7 76.2 71.8 64.2 51.6 41.0 30.7 51.0 1835..29.4 27.2 35.6 45.6 58.4 67.1 72.5 69.8 60.7 56.4 43.8 28.4 49.6 1836..27.8 21.5 32.2 44.3 58.0 62.3 73.0 67.9 64.0 45.8 38.7 31.2 47.6 1837..26.3 29.8 34.9 46.0 55.3 64.5 69.5 68.6 62.2 52.9 44.0 35.6 49.1 1838..34.5 23.3 37.8 44.2 56.2 70.4 77.2 77.4 65.4 51.7 40.0 29.1 50.3 1839..30.5 31.9 38.6 49.8 57.8 63.4 73.0 70.8 66.7 56.3 39.9 35.6 51.2 1840..23.8 34.8 40.3 51.5 58.8 67.0 72.3 73.3 64.0 55.2 43.6 30.3 51.2 1841..30.8 28.1 37.4 46.0 56.5 69.1 73.9 73.4 68.6 51.8 44.9 33.8 51.2 1842..33.7 38.1 44.6 51.5 58.5 67.2 74.4 72.9 67.1 51.7 39.2 32.1 53.4 1843..36.5 25.7 30.3 47.3 59.1 71.2 74.1 74.3 68.0 53.7 40.5 36.1 51.4 1844..25.7 29.7 38.8 53.5 63.3 69.2 74.5 72.9 65.8 53.5 43.3 34.0 52.0 1845..35.0 31.9 42.1 50.8 60.5 71.3 76.6 76.0 65.5 55.3 45.7 38.3 53.3 1846..31.4 27.4 39.3 50.3 60.4 67.4 72.2 73.2 69.7 54.0 48.1 33.9 52.3 1847..32.4 31.6 36.0 49.5 59.5 70.8 75.6 72.3 64.7 51.4 46.0 37.9 52.3 1848..33.8 31.2 36.1 50.1 61.4 69.1 74.3 73.5 63.4 54.1 39.7 39.3 52.3 1849..25.8 24.7 37.8 47.5 55.0 69.5 72.8 72.3 64.3 52.6 48.2 32.1 50.2 1850..32.8 33.4 36.2 44.1 54.4 68.6 75.1 71.0 64.3 53.8 45.2 33.2 50.9 1851..32.1 33.7 39.7 49.1 58.2 68.4 75.6 74.0 69.7 57.3 42.2 37.4 52.1 1852..24.3 30.7 36.7 43.7 60.3 69.7 76.6 73.3 63.8 55.6 46.1 40.4 51.4 1853..32.1 32.5 39.6 48.1 60.2 71.2 72.8 73.5 66.4 52.0 44.3 33.1 52.2 1854..28.7 28.2 36.2 45.1 59.9 68.5 75.9 72.9 66.4 55.7 43.7 27.5 50.7 1855..31.2 23.9 36.0 46.6 58.6 68.1 75.6 70.6 65.6 53.3 44.6 34.7 50.7 1856..21.9 23.9 30.8 49.9 57.6 71.1 74.6 71.7 66.7 51.5 42.6 37.6 50.0 1857..19.6 34.5 35.3 43.3 58.2 68.7 74.0 72.7 64.8 53.3 42.5 36.9 50.0 1858..35.3 24.5 35.0 47.9 56.1 72.3 74.6 71.7 65.4 56.6 40.1 32.9 51.0 1859..24.5 33.1 43.9 48.3 61.0 67.3 73.2 72.6 63.8 50.5 45.4 30.0 51.4 1860..30.1 29.0 41.1 47.3 59.7 70.1 74.4 73.8 64.1 55.6 46.1 30.8 51.9 1861..28.9 35.5 37.5 49.9 56.6 70.2 74.6 72.1 66.9 59.6 43.9 34.8 52.7 1862..29.4 30.0 36.9 47.7 61.0 68.3 74.1 74.4 67.9 57.6 44.1 33.8 52.1 1863..34.2 31.4 33.6 48.2 61.8 67.2 76.5 76.8 63.3 55.1 46.6 32.8 52.3 1864..30.4 32.6 38.3 47.7 63.2 70.0 74.1 76.2 63.8 54.1 46.1 35.9 52.7 1865..24.7 30.9 43.3 52.4 61.3 73.9 75.4 72.9 71.1 54.2 45.9 37.2 53.6 1866..27.5 31.5 37.5 51.2 58.4 70.2 78.6 69.4 67.5 56.5 46.2 33.2 52.6 1867..24.2 37.3 36.3 49.7 56.7 69.5 73.3 73.9 66.6 55.5 44.2 28.5 51.1 1868..25.4 22.5 37.2 44.8 55.9 68.1 78.4 75.1 66.5 52.4 43.4 29.4 50.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Park is still at 40 at 12 pm. Is the midnight high of 42 going to be the daily high? Still 40 at 2 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Still 40 at 2 pm. Don't think it's going any higher despite updated call for partly sunny and mid 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Flurries Caldwell nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Flurries in Borough Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 We might get our first decent snow shower next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 flurries here, 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Wow eps has really cold air for mid January onward. This month could end up below normal if thar verifies. PB possibly ftw if its true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Wow eps has really cold air for mid January onward. This month could end up below normal if thar verifies. PB possibly ftw if its true. What a look -epo with -nao next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Forecast low of 15 tues morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Forecast low of 15 tues morning Mine's 9° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Forecast low of 15 tues morning Amy freeze says no...jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Nws. Has me at 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 'Five day periods' centered on the following Jan. dates: 9 AN 14 AN+ 19 AN 24 AN+? This is not as good as yesterday's. When do the models pick up on all this cold? The 500mb looks equally bad today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 'Five day periods' centered on the following Jan. dates: 9 AN 14 AN+ 19 AN 24 AN+? This is not as good as yesterday's. When do the models pick up on all this cold? The 500mb looks equally bad today. Where in the blue hell do you get this information from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 A little birdy drops it in my lap each morning. No really........................................................ http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1516/gpmaps.html Signed CONFUSED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Well is it a case of "READ 'EM & WEEP" or is there some explanation as to how there can be 'little right' all round here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 No idea what that is but it doesnt make sense. That 500 mb pattern is not progged on any models, something isnt right with that website. Why are there 2015 dates in the composite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Is it a class project (honest errors) then? College seems to be in Mid-West. Or something meant to stir up blogs like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Is it a class project (honest errors) then? College seems to be in Mid-West. Or something meant to stir up blogs like this? Until you can post more info about it, or explain what the graphs mean, just keep them out for now. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Well is it a case of "READ 'EM & WEEP" or is there some explanation as to how there can be 'little right' all round here? The correlation dates are all from 2015!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Until you can post more info about it, or explain what the graphs mean, just keep them out for now. Thanks. I understand. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The 00Z NAM for NY LaGuardia Airport is very cold and dry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 GFS global http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=00-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1 Watch that persistent El Nino Gyre in the Gulf of Alaska It sucks the life out of the Arctic cold shot into the Northeast just an amazing loop of the big picture show..... ESRL ens run--- shunts the bulk of any precip off the coast an OTS http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_ussm_animation.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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