Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Upton should issue freeze warnings for tomorrow night. Looks like it's going to be my first freeze. Wow. Guessing they have given up by now, but amazing that parts of the city still haven't had their first freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I might be wrong but I believe I saw somewhere that after a certain date they stop issuing freeze warning's even if a particular place hasn't had there first freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I might be wrong but I believe I saw somewhere that after a certain date they stop issuing freeze warning's even if a particular place hasn't had there first freeze. Makes sense, considering one could be issued almost every night in jan/feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Makes sense, considering one could be issued almost every night in jan/feb.He meant one should be issued for the first freeze, not every one (regardless of how late) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Sorry should have written that differently but I believe I saw that after a certain date they stop issuing freeze warnings for first freezes!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Euro weeklies cooled down. Shows around below normal temps week 1,2 and average week 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Euro weeklies cooled down. Shows around below normal temps week 1,2 and average week 3-4. Week 4 doesn't look spectacular but I honestly never trust the weeklies anyway. They consistently showed week 4 being a torch last winter and most of the 10-11 winter as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Week 4 doesn't look spectacular but I honestly never trust the weeklies anyway. They consistently showed week 4 being a torch last winter and most of the 10-11 winter as well Week 2 and 3 are frigid. We break week 4 . The ensembles re fire week 5 and 6. You have to read the board never correct poster away seeing 1 week out of 5 yelling 98 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Week 2 and 3 are frigid. We break week 4 . The ensembles re fire week 5 and 6. You have to read the board never correct poster away seeing 1 week out of 5 yelling 98 . I saw someone saying that in the SE forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 This looks decent Don , They look good to me. As long as they hold, we'll get opportunities for snowfall down the road. It will be good to see the cold return in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 NASA says El Nino continues..."relatively warm and dry conditions over the northern United States. The latest El Niño forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ While scientists still do not know precisely how the current El Niño will affect the United States, the last large El Niño in 1997-98 was a wild ride for most of the nation. The "Great Ice Storm" of January 1998 crippled northern New England and southeastern Canada, but overall, the northern tier of the United States experienced long periods of mild weather and meager snowfall..." Comparison to Dec 27, 2015.. http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4808 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Looking at the 12z EPS again, I found it interesting that they wanted to build more ridging into the Kara region again later in the run. Obviously, nothing like what is happening there now, but it's more robust than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Tuesday looking like it doesn't get above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The tv mets have mid 30s..why was post deleted because this is a discussion thread..I see other posts here that arent based on models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Looking at the 12z EPS again, I found it interesting that they wanted to build more ridging into the Kara region again later in the run. Obviously, nothing like what is happening there now, but it's more robust than previous runs. The stratosphere is warm going ahead. Promotes more chances of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The tv mets have mid 30s..why was post deleted because this is a discussion thread..I see other posts here that arent based on models We have a thread for vendors/tv mets. We've had it for a long time because these threads, especially during storm threats, get clogged up with "is janice huff a real meteorologist" and "i cant believe amy freeze is only calling for 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Huge negative nao block on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The tv mets have mid 30s..why was post deleted because this is a discussion thread..I see other posts here that arent based on models00z gfs and euro continue to hold areas below frz on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Lastest GFS MOS for Tuesday in NYC is 14/28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I will post the new euro 46 day weeklies later on for those who have not seen them . ( Jan 1 thru 7 are BN) There is a 3 day transient warm up followed by an arctic outbreak week 3 and 4. The ridge comes east back into Central Canada ( it's slightly +) and then the ridge pulls back W again and the trough is in the SE again week 5 and 6. You have a chance to run the table through FEB here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I will post the new euro 46 day weeklies later on for those who have not seen them . ( Jan 1 thru 7 are BN) There is a 3 day transient warm up followed by an arctic outbreak week 3 and 4. The ridge comes east back into Central Canada ( it's slightly +) and then the ridge pulls back W again and the trough is in the SE again week 5 and 6. You have a chance to run the table through FEB here . The January pattern is coming in colder than the Euro seasonal forecast. It held its best blocking and cold for February. The early Arctic shot this week dropping NYC below 20 followed by the Arctic cold January10-20 will be a first for such a strong El Nino. All the other years with a sub 20 reading during the first week of January followed by a BN 10-20 were much weaker events. So the extreme historic December warmth was the first surprise and now this early Arctic cold in January is the second. El Nino years with a sub 20 temp January 1-7 followed by a below normal January 10-20: 2015 1988 1978 1977 1970 1959 1958 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The January pattern is coming in colder than the Euro seasonal forecast. It held its best blocking and cold for February. The early Arctic shot this week dropping NYC below 20 followed by the Arctic cold January10-20 will be a first for such a strong El Nino. All the other years with a sub 20 reading during the first week of January followed by a BN 10-20 were much weaker events. So the extreme historic December warmth was the first surprise and now this early Arctic cold in January is the second. El Nino years with a sub 20 temp January 1-7 followed by a below normal January 10-20: 2015 1988 1978 1977 1970 1959 1958 That was always my point about the euro seasonal. It's a warm biased model at 2m , so the skill is at 500 mb . I posted back in May if you center the ridge on the W shores of HB and have a negative S of AK you force the jet up and over the top and HP has to roll through the lakes and cold air would base of that trough in the SE where the euro placed it. It's really early on in the enso thread . However the pattern and the euro ensembles put you in a position for a wide spread snowstorm around day 10 -11. I will not fight that fight yet , but man 58 /78/15 are some big time Feb winters , imagine if we pull this off in Jan and roll into those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 That was always my point about the euro seasonal. It's a warm biased model at 2m , so the skill is at 500 mb . I posted back in May if you center the ridge on the W shores of HB and have a negative S of AK you force the jet up and over the top and HP has to roll through the lakes and cold air would base of that trough in the SE where the euro placed it. It's really early on in the enso thread . However the pattern and the euro ensembles put you in a position for a wide spread snowstorm around day 10 -11. I will not fight that fight yet , but man 58 /78/15 are some big time Feb winters , imagine if we pull this off in Jan and roll into those years. Yeah, even the 500 mb for January will be off. The block is pulled further back further NW than the Feb forecast. So the cold in January is coming in faster and stronger than expected. These seasonal forecasts can be good for broad sketches of how the pattern may evolve, but you always have to wait until the shorter term for the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Persistent cloud cover the last week, busted forecast yesterday and today may fall into the same bucket. Clearing slower than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Chris , I have seen enough. JAN will finish BN . As you brought up last week , this will turn into the greatest Dec/Jan reversal temp wise since we began keeping records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Chris , I have seen enough. JAN will finish BN . As you brought up last week , this will turn into the greatest Dec/Jan reversal temp wise since we began keeping records. We're keeping track.... You can't change your forecast every day. Well, it is the real way to do it, because we don't know that much far in advance. You just can't take too much credit for it. The better the ensembles look, the more Forky hides. I don't think he retracted his January +5 call. Giving him the opportunity to retract or reaffirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 NAM has us down to 15 by Monday 7 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 NAM has us down to 15 by Monday 7 pm. GFS is also similiar. GFS has highs in the mid 20s on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 We're keeping track.... You can't change your forecast every day. Well, it is the real way to do it, because we don't know that much far in advance. You just can't take too much credit for it. The better the ensembles look, the more Forky hides. I don't think he retracted his January +5 call. Giving him the opportunity to retract or reaffirm. Being the 1st to call for a pattern change 2 weeks ago in the face of warm guidance /countless posts against and now telling you there's a major arctic outbreak coming days 11 thru 20 when no one here sees it doesn't mean going from N to BN is "changing "my forecast. Means I'm getting even colder. Not only is the pattern changing but one that will break the Dec to Jan reversals. Not sure what you are missing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The 12/31/15 Climate Prediction Center Long Range Outlook gave NYC an equal chance of either a normal, below normal, or above normal month concerning precipitation and temperature so time will tell since it is just January 1st. Short range does look cold but dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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