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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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Week 4 doesn't look spectacular but I honestly never trust the weeklies anyway. They consistently showed week 4 being a torch last winter and most of the 10-11 winter as well

Week 2 and 3 are frigid. We break week 4 .

The ensembles re fire week 5 and 6. You have to read the board never correct poster away seeing 1 week out of 5 yelling 98 .

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NASA says El Nino continues..."relatively warm and dry conditions over the northern United States. The latest El Niño forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is at:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

 

While scientists still do not know precisely how the current El Niño will affect the United States, the last large El Niño in 1997-98 was a wild ride for most of the nation. The "Great Ice Storm" of January 1998 crippled northern New England and southeastern Canada, but overall, the northern tier of the United States experienced long periods of mild weather and meager snowfall..."  Comparison to Dec 27, 2015..

 

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4808

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Looking at the 12z EPS again, I found it interesting that they wanted to build more ridging into the Kara region again later in the run. Obviously, nothing like what is happening there now, but it's more robust than previous runs.

The stratosphere is warm going ahead. Promotes more chances of blocking.

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The tv mets have mid 30s..why was post deleted because this is a discussion thread..I see other posts here that arent based on models

We have a thread for vendors/tv mets. We've had it for a long time because these threads, especially during storm threats, get clogged up with "is janice huff a real meteorologist" and "i cant believe amy freeze is only calling for 2-4".

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I will post the new euro 46 day weeklies later on for those who have not seen them .

( Jan 1 thru 7 are BN)

There is a 3 day transient warm up followed by an arctic outbreak week 3 and 4.

The ridge comes east back into Central Canada ( it's slightly +)

and then the ridge pulls back W again and the trough is in the SE again week 5 and 6.

You have a chance to run the table through FEB here .

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I will post the new euro 46 day weeklies later on for those who have not seen them .

( Jan 1 thru 7 are BN)

There is a 3 day transient warm up followed by an arctic outbreak week 3 and 4.

The ridge comes east back into Central Canada ( it's slightly +)

and then the ridge pulls back W again and the trough is in the SE again week 5 and 6.

You have a chance to run the table through FEB here .

 

The January pattern is coming in colder than the Euro seasonal forecast. It held its best blocking and cold

for February. The early Arctic shot this week dropping NYC below 20 followed by the Arctic cold January10-20

will be a first for such a strong El Nino. All the other years with a sub 20 reading during the first week of January

followed by a BN 10-20 were much weaker events. So the extreme historic December warmth was the

first surprise and now this early Arctic cold in January is the second.

 

El Nino years with a sub 20 temp January 1-7 followed by a below normal January 10-20:

 

2015

1988

1978

1977

1970

1959

1958

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The January pattern is coming in colder than the Euro seasonal forecast. It held its best blocking and cold

for February. The early Arctic shot this week dropping NYC below 20 followed by the Arctic cold January10-20

will be a first for such a strong El Nino. All the other years with a sub 20 reading during the first week of January

followed by a BN 10-20 were much weaker events. So the extreme historic December warmth was the

first surprise and now this early Arctic cold in January is the second.

El Nino years with a sub 20 temp January 1-7 followed by a below normal January 10-20:

2015

1988

1978

1977

1970

1959

1958

That was always my point about the euro seasonal. It's a warm biased model at 2m , so the skill is at 500 mb .

I posted back in May if you center the ridge on the W shores of HB and have a negative S of AK you force the jet up and over the top and HP has to roll through the lakes and cold air would base of that trough in the SE where the euro placed it.

It's really early on in the enso thread .

However the pattern and the euro ensembles put you in a position for a wide spread snowstorm around day 10 -11.

I will not fight that fight yet , but man 58 /78/15 are some big time Feb winters , imagine if we pull this off in Jan and roll into those years.

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That was always my point about the euro seasonal. It's a warm biased model at 2m , so the skill is at 500 mb .

I posted back in May if you center the ridge on the W shores of HB and have a negative S of AK you force the jet up and over the top and HP has to roll through the lakes and cold air would base of that trough in the SE where the euro placed it.

It's really early on in the enso thread .

However the pattern and the euro ensembles put you in a position for a wide spread snowstorm around day 10 -11.

I will not fight that fight yet , but man 58 /78/15 are some big time Feb winters , imagine if we pull this off in Jan and roll into those years.

 

Yeah, even the 500 mb for January will be off. The block is pulled further back  further NW than the Feb

forecast. So the cold in January is coming in faster and stronger than expected. These seasonal forecasts

can be good for broad sketches of how the pattern may evolve, but you always have to wait until the shorter

term for the details. 

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Chris , I have seen enough. JAN will finish BN .

As you brought up last week , this will turn into the greatest Dec/Jan reversal temp wise since we began keeping records.

We're keeping track....

You can't change your forecast every day.

Well, it is the real way to do it, because we don't know that much far in advance. You just can't take too much credit for it.

The better the ensembles look, the more Forky hides. I don't think he retracted his January +5 call. Giving him the opportunity to retract or reaffirm.

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We're keeping track....

You can't change your forecast every day.

Well, it is the real way to do it, because we don't know that much far in advance. You just can't take too much credit for it.

The better the ensembles look, the more Forky hides. I don't think he retracted his January +5 call. Giving him the opportunity to retract or reaffirm.

Being the 1st to call for a pattern change 2 weeks ago in the face of warm guidance /countless posts against and now telling you there's a major arctic outbreak coming days 11 thru 20 when no one here sees it doesn't mean going from N to BN is "changing "my forecast.

Means I'm getting even colder. Not only is the pattern changing but one that will break the Dec to Jan reversals.

Not sure what you are missing there.

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The 12/31/15 Climate Prediction Center Long Range Outlook gave NYC an equal chance of either a normal, below normal, or above normal month concerning precipitation and temperature so time will tell since it is just January 1st.   Short range does look cold but dry!

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