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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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Funny, looking back at these posts. Granted, we got an insane HECS from northern VA to NYC, but widespread cold has been non-existent throughout the entire lower 48. We just spent nearly 5 days above freezing in late Jan, and we are prob looking at another 5 days of such a streak. Anyone banking on widespread cold coming into Feb is engaging in a fool's errand IMO. Now, that's not to say we need it for another major storm (January is exhibit A to the contrary). But this doesn't seem to be the winter of cold locking in. It hasn't yet, and we have about another 20-25 days where it even has a reasonable chance to do so. Tic, toc.

Chris this is not VA we don't end winter on Feb 28 . Especially this year as we will roll into March .

The call for Jan was N w AN snow. KNYC is plus 1.5 through today with 27 inches of snow.

If we got nickeled and diisd people would be screaming all the events were BS .

The guidance for the first week of FEB is AN , the rest of the month is BN .

FEB will feature AN snow.

I thank you for Harper in advance. He is going to look good in RF here in 2 years.

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With today's 53° temperature, NYC will finish with a mean temperature of 34.4° for January. That is 1.8° above normal. 

 

Heaviest January snowfall total with a mean temperature of 34 degrees or higher in NYC.

Also sets a new record for warmth by a wide margin among the Januaries with over 20 inches of snow.

 

2011....36.0"....29.7

1925....27.4"....28.4

2016....27.2"....34.4

1996....26.1"....30.5

1923....24.5"....30.0

1935....23.6"....28.9

1877....20.5"....27.7

1978....20.3.....28.0

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Chris this is not VA we don't end winter on Feb 28 . Especially this year as we will roll into March .

The call for Jan was N w AN snow. KNYC is plus 1.5 through today with 27 inches of snow.

If we got nickeled and diisd people would be screaming all the events were BS .

The guidance for the first week of FEB is AN , the rest of the month is BN .

FEB will feature AN snow.

I thank you for Harper in advance. He is going to look good in RF here in 2 years.

 

I didn't say winter was ending.  I said prolonged cold is highly unlikely after the end of Feb.  We have generally the same climate as western VA, with the only difference being less variability in temps (there an avg winter is from basically -5 to 70, whereas here it's more like 10-60 in terms of a max spread).  Harper isn't going anywhere;  our owner is richer than yours.

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Heaviest January snowfall total with a mean temperature of 34 degrees or higher in NYC.

Also sets a new record for warmth among the Januaries with over 20 inches of snow.

 

2011....36.0"....29.7

1925....27.4"....28.4

2016....27.2"....34.4

1996....26.1"....30.5

1923....24.5"....30.0

1935....23.6"....28.9

1877....20.5"....27.7

1978....20.3.....28.0

 

This is like the Donald Trump of winters.

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I didn't say winter was ending. I said prolonged cold is highly unlikely after the end of Feb. We have generally the same climate as western VA, with the only difference being less variability in temps (there an avg winter is from basically -5 to 70, whereas here it's more like 10-60 in terms of a max spread). Harper isn't going anywhere; our owner is richer than yours.

You have a good point, once past March 1st, climo definitely does start to become an issue as does sun angle and the increasing daylight hours. Prior to March though, sun angle issues are somewhat exaggerated
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I don't see why people even want the prolonged cold.  As we saw just this month, we only need something borderline (in terms of cold) to get a massive storm, especially with the Nino-influenced STJ and the crazy SSTs offshore.

That was always our argument here. Some of us AN temps with AN snow .

The first 6 days of FEB are AN , and prob by 8 to 10 but we are in line for an arctic outbreak by mid month that will erase it.

N at 2 M would b fine but expect AN snowfall this month.

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Who cares if the park is 50 and others are 30s.

Park has 20"+ more snow then those areas.

 

Areas up the Hudson Valley are really getting the short end of the stick for snow fans.

POU has 0 snow for December and January with a +13.2 December and a +5.9 January.

 

 

 

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