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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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This winter is absolutely nothing at all like the last 2 winters, no comparison at all. There was no raging STJ slamming into the west coast the previous 2 winters.  You are not going to see deep arctic cold lock in for weeks and weeks on end like 13-14 and 14-15

 

WE WILL LOCK FOR 2 WEEKS .

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how about these developing snow squalls incoming??,there really starting to bloom coming over the mountains now.might even be a ivt trof develpoing later on as well.too bad we just missed our coastal but these are the after effects of interaction with the cold front and the strong low in the atlantic    :snowing:  

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The first time that NYC has such a warm winter average temperature through the end of

January and so much snow.

 

We have another extreme to add to the long list in the 2000's for NYC.

 

Average winter temperature at NYC through 1/29........42 degrees.....snowfall....27.2"

 

Warmest winters in NYC:

 

41.5...01-02

40.5...11-12

40.1...31-32

39.6...97-98

39.2...90-91

38.7...98-99

38.5...1899-90...48-49

38.1...52-53...05-06

38.0....1879-1880

37.9....36-37...82-83

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The first time that NYC has such a warm winter average temperature through the end of

January and so much snow.

 

We have another extreme to add to the long list in the 2000's for NYC.

 

Average winter temperature at NYC through 1/29........42 degrees.....snowfall....27.2"

 

Warmest winters in NYC:

 

41.5...01-02

40.5...11-12

40.1...31-32

39.6...97-98

39.2...90-91

38.7...98-99

38.5...1899-90...48-49

38.1...52-53...05-06

38.0....1879-1880

37.9....36-37...82-83

some mild winters with a KU and above average snowfall...

1948-49...38.5.....46.6".....16.0" big event...

1982-83...37.9.....27.2".....17.6" big event

2005-06...37.3.....40.0".....26.9" big event

2015-16...4?.?.....27.2".....26.8" big event

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January temps so far certainly didn't look that cold as you would think especially with the so called great pattern flip

http://m.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york-ny/10017/january-weather/349727

It was still a fairly noticeable change, at least for NYC.

 

Mean temperature 1/1-17: 35.9° +3.2°

Mean temperature 1/18-31: 32.4° -0.3° (assuming the 18z GFS MOS split of 50°-37° is correct for tomorrow).

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It was still a fairly noticeable change, at least for NYC.

 

Mean temperature 1/1-17: 35.9° +3.2°

Mean temperature 1/18-31: 32.4° -0.3° (assuming the 18z GFS MOS split of 50°-37° is correct for tomorrow).

true don but thats just about average.  certainly no great sustaining cold

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true don but thats just about average.  certainly no great sustaining cold

Correct. I had expected more in terms of cold for the second half of January and was incorrect on that. IMO, January will probably finish 1.7° to 1.9° above normal. February might be closer to normal than that, especially if blocking redevelops. 

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We've also begun our upward march in average temps. Already tomorrow's average high is 40, up from 38 2 weeks ago. This gives us a better shot at below for february

I agree, we've pretty much passed the coldest part of Winter. You can also notice the days getting longer. Staying lighter out past 5:00 P.M

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January temps so far certainly didn't look that cold as you would think especially with the so called great pattern flip

http://m.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york-ny/10017/january-weather/349727

It's very tough to be below normal any month in winter with an El Niño this strong. Even 09-10 I don't think any of the three months were much below normal, I think all were within a degree or so of normal. I did however think this month would average -1 to -2. I would be curious to know how many below zero days have ever occurred in places like Albany Binghamton Boston Hartford etc in moderate or strong El Niño winters, probably very few. It seems all the cold outbreaks in winters like 87-88, 91-92, 97-98 l, 09-10 were very modified as a whole
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Wow really cold eps run later in the run

 

Funny, looking back at these posts.  Granted, we got an insane HECS from northern VA to NYC, but widespread cold has been non-existent throughout the entire lower 48.  We just spent nearly 5 days above freezing in late Jan, and we are prob looking at another 5 days of such a streak.  Anyone banking on widespread cold coming into Feb is engaging in a fool's errand IMO.  Now, that's not to say we need it for another major storm (January is exhibit A to the contrary).  But this doesn't seem to be the winter of cold locking in.  It hasn't yet, and we have about another 20-25 days where it even has a reasonable chance to do so.  Tic, toc.

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