January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern

[Drz1111]

That's because that blocking is driven by sea-air processes. Welcome to the new normal.

[PB GFI]

unless you called for a massive kara sea ridge to disturb the tropospheric PV with zero help from the stratosphere you don't get to claim victory. you can even see the connection on the the 500mb average for the month. right for the wrong reasons doesn't count

 

 

 

I ARGUED FOR THIS EXACT LOOK AT 500 SINCE MAY  . 

 

A TROUGH IN AK RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST OF HUDSON BAY TROUGH IN THE SE .  SO THE RIDGE AT 70 WAS ANOMALOUS . SO EVERYONE MISSED A - 5 SD AO THAT MAKES THE FORECAST WRONG ?

THE ENTIRE LOOK AT 500 WENT TO THE FORECAST .  THE PATTERN IS GOING BACK TO THE SAME LOOK IN FEB AND ITS SST , DL/FORCING DRIVEN UNLESS YOU SEE ANOTHER KARA SEA HEIGHT RISE ? 

FYI THE RIDGE WILL GO BACK UP AT 70 AGAIN - IT IS WHAT WILL HELP YOU SEE CROSS POLAR FLOW IN FEB .

THE ENTIRE EVOLUTION AT 500 FROM LATE DECEMBER WAS ARGUED AGAINST BY YOU . YOU CALLED FOR A 98 PATTERN .

 

PB GFI, on 01 Jan 2016 - 08:18 AM, said:

That was always my point about the euro seasonal. It's a warm biased model at 2m , so the skill is at 500 mb .

I posted back in May if you center the ridge on the W shores of HB and have a negative S of AK you force the jet up and over the top and HP has to roll through the lakes and cold air would base of that trough in the SE where the euro placed it.

It's really early on in the enso thread .

However the pattern and the euro ensembles put you in a position for a wide spread snowstorm around day 10 -11.

I will not fight that fight yet , but man 58 /78/15 are some big time Feb winters , imagine if we pull this off in Jan and roll into those years.

 

MY CALL WAS FOR AN 2M  AN SNOW 

 

AN NOV ,AN DEC , JAN N , AN SNOW , JAN 1- 6 BN , JAN 7-11 AN ,JAN 11- 22 BN ,JAN N BY JAN 22 ( WAS + 1 ), - EPO/WINTER 

 

NEXT CALL COLDEST 10 DAY PERIOD THIS WINTER WILL BE FOUND INSIDE THE FEB 5 - 20 PERIOD .

 

 

 

 

 

YOU ARGUED FOR THIS  FOR THE WINTER . KILLER FORECAST , GREAT WORK . 

 

[PB GFI]

Many of us called for the forcing between 160/180 that would help create the NEG in GOA more towards 150 so it would pull the ridge back to the W shore of HB which would argue for a trough in the means in the S/E .

Below  is one reason why you saw the flip into Jan to a - EPO/+PNA regime .

 

 

 

Going forward you can see how the forcing heads back further W and you can see the 500 mb maps agreeing with the same favorable look once past FEB 5 .

 

FEB 1-4 AN   5 - 20 BN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

That's because that blocking is driven by sea-air processes. Welcome to the new normal.

 

Yeah, extreme levels of blocking along with the record warmth and precipitation have defined the weather and climate patterns

of the 2000's so far. This last year was a continuation of the pattern.The snow lovers have been very lucky that the small

amount of available cold has mostly been focused into the winter months. And this winter is a more extreme version 

of 05-06 where record warmth and snowfall coexist within the same season.

 

JFM 2015...anomalous sea of cold under extreme -EPO blocking

May-December...record warmth continues as blocking sets up over the Great Lakes and Northeast

January 2016...pattern turns on a dime as near to record kara blocking builds back across Greenland

[Allsnow]

NYC is removing and melting the snow. It's a crazy sight to see. Similar to what Montreal and other snowy cities do.

They attach a monster melter to a sewer and dump truck after dump truck is throwing their load in and melting it.

Pretty cool to see.

NYC is the best at snow removal in Manhattan

[Dan76]

They use like 90gal of fuel an hour

[MJO812]

NYC is the best at snow removal in Manhattan

The streets are starting to get a lot better. Plows are still coming around throughout the day and night to remove the snow.

[Sock Puppet]

I've seen them do it for at least a few years already. I know of at least two locations in Brooklyn where it's being done

When did they begin doing this?

[doncat]

Seeing some big UHI effects last few nights with clear skies and light winds...19 here this am while 33 at central park...morning of the 26th saw a 17 degree spread, one of the largest I can remember. This month should finish with outlying areas not too far from a 0 degree departure while urban areas have +2 or so departures.

[doncat]

Many of us called for the forcing between 160/180 that would help create the NEG in GOA more towards 150 so it would pull the ridge back to the W shore of HB which would argue for a trough in the means in the S/E .

Below  is one reason why you saw the flip into Jan to a - EPO/+PNA regime .

 

 

 

Going forward you can see how the forcing heads back further W and you can see the 500 mb maps agreeing with the same favorable look once past FEB 5 .

 

FEB 1-4 AN   5 - 20 BN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just want to echo what others have said and thank you for your excellent analysis this winter.

[bluewave]

Seeing some big UHI effects last few nights with clear skies and light winds...19 here this am while 33 at central park...morning of the 26th saw a 17 degree spread, one of the largest I can remember. This month should finish with outlying areas not too far from a 0 degree departure while urban areas have +2 or so departures.

 

The LHV has some of the highest departures around the region this month as POU is currently +5.6 for January.

[doncat]

The LHV has some of the highest departures around the region this month as POU is currently +5.6 for January.

Yeah I just checked that out...wasn't aware the departures were that high there. I noticed that POU is averaging the same temp this month as my station...No snowcover there.

[bluewave]

Yeah I just checked that out...wasn't aware the departures were that high there. I noticed that POU is averaging the same temp this month as my station...No snowcover there.

 

Yeah, the colder departures were really focused south of us as is ofter the case with El Ninos.

 

[PB GFI]

Chris , the entire argument  from the early fall has always been a basin wide NINO with basin wide forcing would give you a similar  look at 500 .

 

I doubt we see another record breaking KARA sea block , but I will bet if you remove Feb 1 - 4 the rest of  FEB  will be colder than Jan as a whole .

And prob just as snowy. 

 

 

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

Many of us called for the forcing between 160/180 that would help create the NEG in GOA more towards 150 so it would pull the ridge back to the W shore of HB which would argue for a trough in the means in the S/E .

Below is one reason why you saw the flip into Jan to a - EPO/+PNA regime .

Going forward you can see how the forcing heads back further W and you can see the 500 mb maps agreeing with the same favorable look once past FEB 5 .

FEB 1-4 AN 5 - 20 BN

The GFS as a whole doesn't seem too enthused though with the trof being all that deep in the east from 240 onward, it's a somewhat zonal type broad trof. Without a -NAO I certainly buy that. Im not totally sold that February doesn't end up above normal as well, although I doubt it would be more than 1-2 above

[PB GFI]

The GFS as a whole doesn't seem too enthused though with the trof being all that deep in the east from 240 onward, it's a somewhat zonal type broad trof. Without a -NAO I certainly buy that. Im not totally sold that February doesn't end up above normal as well, although I doubt it would be more than 1-2 above

 

 

Goose  FEB 5 - 15 is cross polar flow .  Feb 1 - 4 may start out + 10 , so it may be hard to recover to BN for the month 

But it looks stormy at  500 after that in the means 

 

That trough in the GOA , big POS PNA  and a trough into Europe makes me believe that trough will be deeper in the E . 

 

That`s a 5 day mean , look at the 500 a day later 

[snowman19]

The GFS as a whole doesn't seem too enthused though with the trof being all that deep in the east from 240 onward, it's a somewhat zonal type broad trof. Without a -NAO I certainly buy that. Im not totally sold that February doesn't end up above normal as well, although I doubt it would be more than 1-2 above

Agree here Snowgoose, it doesn't look like the Atlantic/NAO cooperates, yet again, for February.

[MJO812]

Looks like a negative epo pattern. We will gladly take that.

[MJO812]

Agree here Snowgoose, it doesn't look like the Atlantic/NAO cooperates, yet again, for February.

Dont need a neg nao if the epo and pna cooperates

[Ralph Wiggum]

Dont need a neg nao if the epo and pna cooperates

Agreed. The PAC is more important for ECS than the NAO. Sure, a neg nao can yield a bigger storm due to blocking and stalling slp but we can make out great as long as the Pac is working in our favor. For years we complained about the prolonged firehose Pac flow. Now we finally have buckling over the past winter and a half....and that isnt a bad thing.

[thunderbolt]

Agree here Snowgoose, it doesn't look like the Atlantic/NAO cooperates, yet again, for February.

weather cooperates or not I don't really care snowman you know why because I got my 28 inches with a blizzard Thanks for cheering on the Super El Nino

[Zelocita Weather]

Agreed. The PAC is more important for ECS than the NAO. Sure, a neg nao can yield a bigger storm due to blocking and stalling slp but we can make out great as long as the Pac is working in our favor. For years we complained about the prolonged firehose Pac flow. Now we finally have buckling over the past winter and a half....and that isnt a bad thing.

 

The Large EPAC ridge made the prior two winters quite good. Both had above normal snow, below to near normal temps, and at least 45 days straight snow cover. That was all the EPAC ridge and no NEG NAO at all. This winter it is turning a disaster area into something...

[NycStormChaser]

Anyone feel the ground shake this past hour? USGS says it's a sonic boom but no jets or similar aircrafts reported in the air.

[PB GFI]

Anyone feel the ground shake this past hour? USGS says it's a sonic boom but no jets or similar aircrafts reported in the air.

 

 

Wife said house shook in Colts Neck 2x . The first time for 5 seconds , 20 minutes later longer . 

[snowman19]

The Large EPAC ridge made the prior two winters quite good. Both had above normal snow, below to near normal temps, and at least 45 days straight snow cover. That was all the EPAC ridge and no NEG NAO at all. This winter it is turning a disaster area into something...

This winter is absolutely nothing at all like the last 2 winters, no comparison at all. There was no raging STJ slamming into the west coast the previous 2 winters. You are not going to see deep arctic cold lock in for weeks and weeks on end like 13-14 and 14-15

[pazzo83]

KNYC has been 32+ since 10am on Monday.

[donsutherland1]

Wife said house shook in Colts Neck 2x . The first time for 5 seconds , 20 minutes later longer . 

From NBC:

 

A series of sonic booms that shook New Jersey homes and frightened residents Thursday afternoon was caused by military flight tests, military officials said.

 

U.S. military officials told NBC News that a U.S. military F-35C Joint Strike Fighter jet created a "number of sonic booms" during flight tests off the coast of New Jersey on Thursday. The Joint Strike Fighter was followed by a chase plane as a spotter, officials said.

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mysterious-sonic-boom-heard-south-jersey-n506111

[PB GFI]

From NBC:

 

A series of sonic booms that shook New Jersey homes and frightened residents Thursday afternoon was caused by military flight tests, military officials said.

 

U.S. military officials told NBC News that a U.S. military F-35C Joint Strike Fighter jet created a "number of sonic booms" during flight tests off the coast of New Jersey on Thursday. The Joint Strike Fighter was followed by a chase plane as a spotter, officials said.

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mysterious-sonic-boom-heard-south-jersey-n506111

 

 

85 Million a piece , well at least we know they can go fast 

 

[Stormlover74]

KNYC has been 32+ since 10am on Monday.

They've only dropped below freezing 18x all winter so far

[negative-nao]

Sonic Booms in Charleston SC - http://www.wyff4.com/news/reports-of-buildings-shaking-loud-boom-heard-near-charleston/37645618