January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern

[PB GFI]

Here is why this pattern change is a bid deal . You just finished an anomalously warm Dec and just the hint of N in early and mid Jan when N means 38/28 is a real step down .

But as opined a million times now , the entire field at 500 has totally flipped . And a lot quicker than I even thought . I had always opined all the way back in the ENSO thread I liked Jan 15 .But by Dec 18 the Euro caught it and I went Jan 1 . Non of this appeared in 98 , so that analog is DEAD .

Much to the chagrin of the aforementioned.

As a side note I have been saying the moderation day 7-10 is transient , the ridge flies right through the flow . It is in and it is out .....

If one wants to see how this ends up colder they can scroll back and I show you that low level directly discharged ARCTIC is underdone on the model in the L/R .

It is why starting today day 1-5 are below N . Look at how cold those anomalies/actual forecast temps are now , just compared to the old day 15 . How did I catch it ?

-EPO/+PNA regimes force the jet off Asia the air travels over the arctic and maintains its stability as the ridge stays situated on the west shores of HB , HP ( cold HP) rolls off the backside of the ridge and never gets a chance to moderate .

Now look at day 10-15 . You can see its look at 500mb and look how cold the warm EC biased Euro is saying that air is ?

That DOES NOT MODERATE as we get closer , it will get COLDER once again in the means .

So day 10 - 20 is liable to give you 10 days of - 5 and in the coldest part of winter against the norms that`s really COLD .

For now here is your pattern change , here is your turn to COLD by mid month .

The 1st 20 days Jan are N.

 

Lets see how the PATTERN CHANGE worked out .

 

Sitting here on Jan 25  KNYC is + 1 .

 

Now this is  not perfect as this is my hobby and not my job but I think it`s more than passable  . Lets remember the METS and OTHER POSTERS who were calling for the month to end at plus 5 while one was calling for plus  6 , but in his defense the GFSXYZ is to blame.

ALL BELIEVED IN BN SNOW . 

 

My call was for a total flip at 500 and that N to BN  JAN would show would happen in the coldest part of winter . My Jan - March forecast  has always been AN temps with AN snow .

 

 

It has long been opined and continues to my opinion that the trough in the GOA wants to sit around 150 and not sit on the W coast of Canada  so you will continue to pump the ridge into W Canada  and dig a trough in the SE , like the Euro seasonal thinks through FEB . 

 

Below was the CFSV2  forecast for Jan issued on Dec 31 for the month of Jan , you can be the judge for yourself . After going through a December with  an extreme Positive at 2M I posted in early January  that  the story of this winter would not be the warm December but the turn around we will/have experienced .

 

I am working on FEB it will be out shortly  . I think it could turn out to be a better version of January .

 

 

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Lets see how the PATTERN CHANGE worked out .

Sitting here on Jan 25 KNYC is + 1 .

Now this is not perfect as this is my hobby and not my job but I think it`s more than passable . Lets remember the METS and OTHER POSTERS who were calling for the month to end at plus 5 while one was calling for plus 6 , but in his defense the GFSXYZ is to blame.

ALL BELIEVED IN BN SNOW .

My call was for a total flip at 500 and that N to BN JAN would show would happen in the coldest part of winter . My Jan - March forecast has always been AN temps with AN snow .

It has long been opined and continues to my opinion that the trough in the GOA wants to sit around 150 and not sit on the W coast of Canada so you will continue to pump the ridge into W Canada and dig a trough in the SE , like the Euro seasonal thinks through FEB .

Below was the CFSV2 forecast for Jan issued on Dec 31 for the month of Jan , you can be the judge for yourself . After going through a December with an extreme Positive at 2M I posted in early January that the story of this winter would not be the warm December but the turn around we will/have experienced .

I am working on FEB it will be out shortly . I think it could turn out to be a better version of January .

How do we do "better" in February? I'm on your side as far as my own personal forecast. I always believed February would be a big month for us. I just don't see how we can top what we just had. I think we have one more big event in the pipe line. I also think there is a coastal disappointer and inland and elevated joy storm still to come as well

[weatherpruf]

the ao/nao is forecast to rise over +3 and then fall back to negative again...This makes me think we will see a major thaw probably brief and cold will follow that...The timing looks like just after Feb. 1st...February could start out like 1983 with near record warmth...to early to say February 2016 will yield a storm like 1983...we already saw that the other day...two in one year?...

Heck we saw in 2011....BDB followed a few weeks later by 19 inches, which was not really forecast to be that much. All bets are off IMHO. No snow in Dec? No problem. But over two feet is a bit extreme. Can't get another of those, right? Well, a few years back Baltimore did and last year Boston did. WHo knows?

[Morris]

Lets see how the PATTERN CHANGE worked out .

Sitting here on Jan 25 KNYC is + 1 .

Now this is not perfect as this is my hobby and not my job but I think it`s more than passable . Lets remember the METS and OTHER POSTERS who were calling for the month to end at plus 5 while one was calling for plus 6 , but in his defense the GFSXYZ is to blame.

ALL BELIEVED IN BN SNOW .

My call was for a total flip at 500 and that N to BN JAN would show would happen in the coldest part of winter . My Jan - March forecast has always been AN temps with AN snow .

It has long been opined and continues to my opinion that the trough in the GOA wants to sit around 150 and not sit on the W coast of Canada so you will continue to pump the ridge into W Canada and dig a trough in the SE , like the Euro seasonal thinks through FEB .

Below was the CFSV2 forecast for Jan issued on Dec 31 for the month of Jan , you can be the judge for yourself . After going through a December with an extreme Positive at 2M I posted in early January that the story of this winter would not be the warm December but the turn around we will/have experienced .

I am working on FEB it will be out shortly . I think it could turn out to be a better version of January .

Good job

[Brian5671]

How do we do "better" in February? I'm on your side as far as my own personal forecast. I always believed February would be a big month for us. I just don't see how we can top what we just had. I think we have one more big event in the pipe line. I also think there is a coastal disappointer and inland and elevated joy storm still to come as well

"better" could be 4 or 5 moderate storms...that would be cool if we could lock into a stormy stretch.  

[Hailstorm]

Good write-up, PB.

Do you think we retain our snow pack until we reload? I want to maximize snow retention as much as possible just like the past 2 winters.

[weatherpruf]

Did we ever have a KU storm in recent years that wasn't followed by above normal snowfall? I am hard pressed to think of one, maybe Dec 2000, not counting 83 cause the 80's just sucked....and not just the weather IMO

[Kaner587]

Feb 2013 was a ku but was only accompanied by normal snowfall. 08-09 was also just slightly above normal snowfall, and the March storm was a cat 1 ku. Jan 2000 featured a ku which was much worse in the mid Atlantic but still gave us 4-8 inches but the area had much below normal snowfall that year. If you, however, only looked at say >15in storms for NYC you'd be hard pressed to find below average or average snow years, most would be above normal.

[nzucker]

Feb 2013 was a ku but was only accompanied by normal snowfall. 08-09 was also just slightly above normal snowfall, and the March storm was a cat 1 ku. Jan 2000 featured a ku which was much worse in the mid Atlantic but still gave us 4-8 inches but the area had much below normal snowfall that year. If you, however, only looked at say >15in storms for NYC you'd be hard pressed to find below average or average snow years, most would be above normal.

Winter 12-13 had 52" in Dobbs Ferry, about 140% of average, so there was a sharp gradient from the City to its northern suburbs. The winter was only average in Central Park, but above normal snowfall prevailed in Westchester. I believe the main difference was the early March ocean low, which dumped 10" of powder in Dobbs Ferry but significantly less in NYC.

08-09 was a pretty similar story....we had above average snowfall with 45" (125% of normal) while the Park languished with mid 20s totals. The biggest distinction was the 12/19/08 storm (the first 12/19 storm) which had 8" in Southern Westchester but only 4" in the Five Boroughs...

March 2009 was barely a KU storm, anyway. Talk about marginal, although a widespread foot plus did fall on Long Island.

Obviously a 15" storm basically precludes a below average snow total...the 30 year average is only 24" and long-term is 27", so that only leaves a few inches after the storm. Plus, KU patterns tend to repeat as we saw with 12/19/09 and then February 2010, as well as Dec/Jan/Feb of 60-61 and, to a lesser extent, the XMAS 2002 storm followed by PDII.

[PB GFI]

Good job

Thank you .

[PB GFI]

Good write-up, PB.

Do you think we retain our snow pack until we reload? I want to maximize snow retention as much as possible just like the past 2 winters.

You will retain most of it  but you just want to get through the next 10 days .

What I Originally thought had a chance this weekend to be a pack refresher is just too far E .

That said the next 5 days are AN and at night we re freeze it.

What looks like a day 10 cutter has a chance to belly under. Any warm up seems transient .

Lastly days 11-16 of the GEFS/GEPS bring the trough back into the east with the -epo +pna regime but the EPS looks even better with a trough in the east and ridging over the top.

After that week 3 and 4 on the weeklies look great.

I like Feb for the fact that if you stick a trough in the SE, with a warm Arctic and a

-EPO+PNA regime you are inviting LP to develop in the SE with that STJ.

[Morris]

Park to 40 before 6 am.

[donsutherland1]

Park to 40 before 6 am.

There's an unusually large spread among the MOS products for today. The GFS MOS shows a high temperature of 44°. The NAM MOS has the temperature rocket to 52° highlighted by a 9° rise from 15z to 18z.

[doncat]

Morris, on 26 Jan 2016 - 05:59 AM, said:

Park to 40 before 6 am.

Wow...it was 22 here at the same time. Snowcover and light winds past couple of nights has had some large spreads with urban, surburban...My station has a 0 degree departure for the month after yesterday.

[Isotherm]

Wow...it was 22 here at the same time. Snowcover and light winds past couple of nights has had some large spreads with urban, surburban...My station has a 0 degree departure for the month after yesterday.

 

 

Same here. I'm actually down to -0.3 for the month.

 

Yesterday morning was 7.0F and this morning was 17.1F. Enormous change from December's 48.7F mean temperature, down to 30.7F for January.

[doncat]

Isotherm, on 26 Jan 2016 - 11:11 AM, said:

Same here. I'm actually down to -0.3 for the month.

 

Yesterday morning was 7.0F and this morning was 17.1F. Enormous change from December's 48.7F mean temperature, down to 30.7F for January.

Sure is...47.9 here in December and 30.8 so far this month...urban stations will probably finish with a +1.5 or so but we should finish closer to a 0 departure.

[IsentropicLift]

Models have been consistent with a cutter threat in the day 7-10 range with a warm up and threat for rain. The 12z GFS trended more towards a more amplified setup with a deep long wave trough over the East at day 8-9. While we don't have much of a block to speak of, there were signs of the low trying to redevelop along the coast.

 

[Stormlover74]

Many places have warmed 30-35 degrees in just 6 hours

[snywx]

Your snow cover did wonders for you guys last night. I only have about 2" or so of cover and it got down to 15. Currently 42 here.

[Drz1111]

Models have been consistent with a cutter threat in the day 7-10 range with a warm up and threat for rain. The 12z GFS trended more towards a more amplified setup with a deep long wave trough over the East at day 8-9. While we don't have much of a block to speak of, there were signs of the low trying to redevelop along the coast.

 

It would be very unusual to have a deep low in that spot at this time of year.   Not unheard of, but very against climatology.

[Morris]

Park up to 45

[Brian5671]

Many places have warmed 30-35 degrees in just 6 hours

shallow cold mainly induced by the deep snowcover.

[Morris]

Park up to 47.

And 48

[Morris]

48/38 in prelim report. +10.

 

The climb started today. Average high now 39.

[donsutherland1]

Earlier today, the 0z GFS MOS showed a high temperature of 44°. The 0z NAM MOS had a high temperature of 52°. The end result was 48°, right between the two figures.

[PB GFI]

When looking at the weeklies it is always hard to look past week 2 or 3 with any real confidence for a few reasons , one they run off the 0z ensemble of  that morning and if day 15 is wrong , it will get reflected out in time .  In general as time increases your center point diverges so you have to take the out weeks 4 5 6  with a real grain of salt .

 

What I like to do when I look at the weeklies is go from week to week and see if an error pattern develops in the model means .

In other words , is there a bias at work and can you see it over time .

 

The European seasonal center points the HB ridge on it`s WESTERN side  from J -M . Over the last few weeks , its week 3 and 4 keep adjusting west with it`s greatest centering of the height field . As a result we have been looking colder in guidance .

Hence this small period and the one you will see next week . I had always thought we would relax after the 20th . 

The question is to what ? Yesterday of course the minute one said relax the usual suspects rush in yell 98 and say the CONUS will get flooded with warm air .

 

THAT SEEMS TO BE INCORRECT AGAIN . 

 

Here are  the weeklies from 0z DEC 24  week 3 ( Night and day difference )  4  ( You swap the ridge out on the EC with a trough ) 5 ( Look at the western migration of that ridge in the means )   and here are the new week 2- 3 -4 run yesterday of the 46 day ensembles  . You can see how the heights get pulled back as we get closer and as a result the trough is able to establish itself in the SE in the means . After a very cold 8 day period next week , we moderate its prob back to N to slightly A . If these are correct , that too will be transient . 

 

Side note , the break on the weeklies is now centered between Jan 29 - Feb 5

And Feb 5 through Feb 19 look Very Good . But there is plenty potentially here over the next 3 weeks after the " abbreviated " warm up flies through the flow . 

 

 

Dec 24 weeklies vs Jan 4 weeklies . 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted on Jan 5 .

 

 

The weeklies have been spot on .  The WEEKLIES continue to look very good between the 5 - 20 .

This next warm up will be like the others . A result of SLP cutting to the lakes . Once it clears the area , it`s back to the pattern we just saw .

Higher Heights on the W shore of HB ( - EPO/+PNA )  trough in the SE . 

FEB may have some big ticket items 

[dmillz25]

Got some rain falling here

[donsutherland1]

After today's 48°-38° split, NYC's monthly temperature anomaly is +1.0°. Looking ahead at the GFS MOS, it is extremely likely that January will finish with a positive anomaly.

 

 

Three quick points, the latter two of which are  particularly relevant as one looks ahead to February:

 

1. Assuming the GFS MOS is reasonably close to accurate, the second half of January will have been sufficiently cold to trim the monthly anomaly from where it was during the first half of January by approximately 40%. Through January 15, the temperature anomaly had been 2.5° above normal.

 

2. Despite the overall monthly anomaly, January will have experienced at least two measurable snow events, one of which was a blockbuster snowstorm.

 

3. The AO-/PNA+ pattern coincided with both measurable snow events. Favorable patterns can lead to snowy outcomes even when the month is somewhat warmer than normal.

[Morris]

47 at 11 p.m. in January...

[Rjay]

47 at 11 p.m. in January...

Pack taking a beating