PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How does the EPS and GEFS look for the long range, PB GFI?There's probably a system off the EC around day 8 .We look to open Feb AN . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The close to modern day record step down in December to January temperatures continues for NYC. NYC drops form 50.8 to 34.5 degrees through the first 20 days of the month. The modern record is a 15 degree drop in 84-85 from 43.8 to 28.8. another amazing turnaround in the temp dept. Remains to be seen how we end up in the snow dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 36/26 today. -1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Park down to 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 30/21 so far today. -7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 12z GGEM shows monster storm next week, as well as UKIE...00z EPS was also really good...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 12z GGEM shows monster storm next week, as well as UKIE...00z EPS was also really good...wow Still early, but pretty nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Different setup next week. Very much a southern stream wave that gets captured at the last minute by the trough coming through the lakes. A true miller A, more like Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 12z GGEM shows monster storm next week, as well as UKIE...00z EPS was also really good...wowggem was the first model to pick out this storm today as well..exciting times ahead!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The threat was right there on the 12z ECMWF but it dug the energy too far Southwest and so the Northern stream missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Different setup next week. Very much a southern stream wave that gets captured at the last minute by the trough coming through the lakes. A true miller A, more like Boxing Day.heard a reference to 1969 but way to early to focus on now besides the nam is out of range lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 That storm has been there since last week. Trying to enjoy this one before I get invested in another. I am buried up here and the rates are increasing as I type this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 So after December being above average in the precipitation department, so will January. Big turnaround from the dry summer and fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Still early, but pretty nonetheless. how was 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 how was 00z? GFS had nothing. Progressive and flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 how was 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 How is the month on the departure? Tomorrow should still be below average. We should be close to normal for the first 24 days of the month after the crazy warm December and now record snow. I don't even think there is anyone who can say this wasn't a full-fledged pattern flip. I don't even care if the last week is warm and above average. A 24-day period of around N is enough for this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Does anyone know the highest snowfall total at Newark (Ewr)? Can't find it anywhere. Please let me know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 No snow on the horizon on the 0z GFS and Euro. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Does anyone know the highest snowfall total at Newark (Ewr)? Can't find it anywhere. Please let me know http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NJ&prodtype=public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NJ&prodtype=publicI meant in history, not for this storm. Sorry! Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I meant in history, not for this storm. Sorry! Anyone? It's not exactly what you want and I compiled this quickly: Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK INTL AP, NJ Rank, Value, EndingDate 1, 25.9, 1947-12-26 2, 20.8, 1921-02-20 3, 18.8, 2006-02-12 4, 18.6, 2003-02-17 5, 18.0, 1996-01-07 -, 18.0, 1994-02-11 7, 17.9, 1978-02-06 8, 17.7, 2010-12-26 9, 16.7, 1960-12-12 10, 16.6, 1979-02-19 Period of record: 1893-01-01 to 2016-01-22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 06z gfs is closer to a phase. We've talked about how this season could more or less be a 10 day winter and I wouldn't shocked if models started biting in the new few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 06z gfs is closer to a phase. We've talked about how this season could more or less be a 10 day winter and I wouldn't shocked if models started biting in the new few days.There's a big problem, no cold air locked in place this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Low of 21 in the park. (-6) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 06z gfs is closer to a phase. We've talked about how this season could more or less be a 10 day winter and I wouldn't shocked if models started biting in the new few days. I dunno about the 10 day winter. I think we're not done here. There is going to be a break, but the 00Z EPS doesn't say winter over in the day 12-15. Also, if past history is any indication, there should be at least some more blocking in FEB at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 NYC kept the 2000's amazing snowfall pattern going. NYC is now at 12 out of the last 16 winters with near to above normal seasonal snowfall since 2000-2001. The only winters to finish with clearly below normal snowfall were 01-02, 06-07, 07-08, and 11-12. Coming off the record warmth in December, we continue to follow the 2000's extremes playbook. Big four extreme category for the 2000's: Hurricane Sandy Extreme rainfall Extreme snowfall Extreme warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 06z gfs is closer to a phase. We've talked about how this season could more or less be a 10 day winter and I wouldn't shocked if models started biting in the new few days."We". Is that the same " we" who said Jan would be snowless , the same "we " who said the pattern would not change until Feb the same "we " that said Jan would be plus 5 the same "we " that said the CFS doesn't snow for 75 days ? Stop talking to them , they make you post really bad analysis . Your next warm up will once again be a transient one. I will be issuing a post mortem tomorrow night on some very bad winter forecasts that have been thrown around in here. You guys need to go back to last Sat AM and check out the high fiving and congratulations that were being handed out here as to how the warm/98 crew nailed this winter . I told you 3 weeks ago the story of this winter will be it's great turn around. Many of you dismissed it , hence the post mortem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Park is down to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Park still at 20 at 9 am and it's sunny outside. Does today fail to go above freezing after the earlier predicted highs of closer to 40? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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