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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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The close to modern day record step down in December to January temperatures continues 

for NYC. NYC drops form 50.8 to 34.5 degrees through the first 20 days of the month.

The modern record is a 15 degree drop in 84-85 from 43.8 to 28.8.

another amazing turnaround in the temp dept.   Remains to be seen how we end up in the snow dept.

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How is the month on the departure? Tomorrow should still be below average.

We should be close to normal for the first 24 days of the month after the crazy warm December and now record snow.

I don't even think there is anyone who can say this wasn't a full-fledged pattern flip. I don't even care if the last week is warm and above average. A 24-day period of around N is enough for this point.

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I meant in history, not for this storm. Sorry! Anyone?

It's not exactly what you want and I compiled this quickly:

 

Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall

for NEWARK INTL AP, NJ

Rank, Value, EndingDate

1, 25.9, 1947-12-26

2, 20.8, 1921-02-20

3, 18.8, 2006-02-12

4, 18.6, 2003-02-17

5, 18.0, 1996-01-07

-, 18.0, 1994-02-11

7, 17.9, 1978-02-06

8, 17.7, 2010-12-26

9, 16.7, 1960-12-12

10, 16.6, 1979-02-19

Period of record: 1893-01-01 to 2016-01-22

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06z gfs is closer to a phase. We've talked about how this season could more or less be a 10 day winter and I wouldn't shocked if models started biting in the new few days.

 

I dunno about the 10 day winter. I think we're not done here. There is going to be a break, but the 00Z EPS doesn't say winter over in the day 12-15. Also, if past history is any indication, there should be at least some more blocking in FEB at some point.

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NYC kept the 2000's amazing snowfall pattern going. NYC is now at 12 out of the last 16

winters with near to above normal seasonal snowfall since 2000-2001. The only winters

to finish with clearly below normal snowfall were 01-02, 06-07, 07-08, and 11-12.

 

Coming off the record warmth in December, we continue to follow the 2000's extremes

playbook.

 

Big four extreme category for the 2000's:

 

Hurricane Sandy

Extreme rainfall

Extreme snowfall

Extreme warmth

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06z gfs is closer to a phase. We've talked about how this season could more or less be a 10 day winter and I wouldn't shocked if models started biting in the new few days.

"We". Is that the same " we" who said Jan would be snowless , the same "we " who said the pattern would not change until Feb the same "we " that said Jan would be plus 5 the same "we " that said the CFS doesn't snow for 75 days ?

Stop talking to them , they make you post really bad analysis .

Your next warm up will once again be a transient one.

I will be issuing a post mortem tomorrow night on some very bad winter forecasts that have been thrown around in here.

You guys need to go back to last Sat AM and check out the high fiving and congratulations that were being handed out here as to how the warm/98 crew nailed this winter .

I told you 3 weeks ago the story of this winter will be it's great turn around.

Many of you dismissed it , hence the post mortem

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