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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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Big story continues to be the NYC step down in temperatures from December to January.

December finished at 13.3 and 50.8 degrees down to +2.1 and 34.7 through the 14th.

The big AO and EPO reversal has kept the temperatures much lower than December.

 

 

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Big story continues to be the NYC step down in temperatures from December to January.

December finished at 13.3 and 50.8 degrees down to +2.1 and 34.7 through the 14th.

The big AO and EPO reversal has kept the temperatures much lower than December.

That was a nice catch by you in early Jan .

Like I said yesterday let's see what we look like snow wise and departure wise come Jan 24 because between Jan 25 to Feb 5 we could pull back.

If we don't snow , 2m temps aside people will say , a pullback from what.

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Yeah, we really need to put some snow points on the board before the pullback when we lose the stronger blocking.

The Aleutian Low/STJ were pushed pretty far east into the SW US under the block. The more amplified systems

to date have forced ridging out ahead of them and a warmer storm track than people liked to see.

 

attachicon.gif500.gif

 

attachicon.gif300.gif

 

 

If this is right is fine its def  not the Euro crud 

gfs-ens_z500a5d_namer_3.png

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So far we are just about  +2.8 this month, and the next 7 days figure to be +2.0, so by the morning of the 23rd. we should be a little more than +2 for the month  The number of below normal days is still being dwarfed by the number of above normal days, and not much different from the ratio maintained since April 01, ie. 4 to 1. 

So this pattern change has been one of quantity (less positve) and not direction so far.

If we finish Jan. at +2(likely) and Feb. does not benefit from a possible SSWE  and winds up at +5(unknowable), this will be the warmest meteorological winter ever, when combined with December's +13.3.

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Yeah, the only thing that has kept the NYC departure as low as +2.7 this month so far has

been the -AO/-EPO pattern. The models begin to reverse the blocking pattern going

forward.Temps should begin to warm again around the last week of January as

we go more +AO/+EPO.

 

attachicon.gifeps_ao_00.png

 

attachicon.gif4panel.png

2 false starts in the guidance and we can't overcome the fast split flow.

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It seems we can all agree that the PAC flow is very much hindering our wintry chances thus far. Looking through some stuff this morning, I think that much of the blame for that has to be the fact that this nino has just not been fading as quickly as the seasonal modeling had suggested. That would keep the PAC jet a powerhouse. I remember that being noted as a potential problem for the winter during the fall. I would have to think if this nino was somewhat weaker, then the PAC jet wouldn't be as overpowering.

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Yeah, the only thing that has kept the NYC departure as low as +2.7 this month so far has

been the -AO/-EPO pattern. The models begin to reverse the blocking pattern going

forward.Temps should begin to warm again around the last week of January as

we go more +AO/+EPO.

 

attachicon.gifeps_ao_00.png

 

attachicon.gif4panel.png

If we go to an EPO+/AO+/PNA+ pattern, things could be ugly for a time. Such a pattern predominated during the February 16-26, 1998 period. Although this El Niño is basinwide vs. that one, the placement of the above normal 500 mb height anomalies during that time in eastern North America closely resembles some of what has been shown on the recent ensembles.

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If we go to an EPO+/AO+/PNA+ pattern, things could be ugly for a time. Such a pattern predominated during the February 16-26, 1998 period. Although this El Niño is basinwide vs. that one, the placement of the above normal 500 mb height anomalies during that time in eastern North America closely resembles some of what has been shown on the recent ensembles.

it will probably hit 70 again in February if the ao/nao is very positive like it was in December...Hopefully that won't happen...

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