Mophstymeo Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 First legit snowfall of the season here. Just about a half inch. Everything covered for the first time this year. This is so sad, though perhaps it's a harbinger of things to come. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 1" of new up here... More than I expected.. Up to 4" for the year! Woohoo!! Sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Dusting overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Another picture from this morning's light snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Park up to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Another picture from this morning's light snowfall: Beautiful! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 nothing here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Only -2 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Only -2 today -3. Ignore the summary's rounding (which rounds the daily mean temperature up to the nearest degree and rounds down the normal mean temperature to the nearest degree). Today's split was 37-22 vs. the norms of 38-27. Today's mean was 29.5 vs. the normal mean of 32.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Park up to 38. Tomorrow alone will erase today's and yesterday's negative departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Park up to 38. Tomorrow alone will erase today's and yesterday's negative departures. And the 17 -21 drive the departures back down , so by the time we r done the 12 thru the 20 are probably BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Park up to 38. Tomorrow alone will erase today's and yesterday's negative departures. torch! All the truly cold air is well west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Big story continues to be the NYC step down in temperatures from December to January. December finished at 13.3 and 50.8 degrees down to +2.1 and 34.7 through the 14th. The big AO and EPO reversal has kept the temperatures much lower than December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Big story continues to be the NYC step down in temperatures from December to January. December finished at 13.3 and 50.8 degrees down to +2.1 and 34.7 through the 14th. The big AO and EPO reversal has kept the temperatures much lower than December. That was a nice catch by you in early Jan . Like I said yesterday let's see what we look like snow wise and departure wise come Jan 24 because between Jan 25 to Feb 5 we could pull back. If we don't snow , 2m temps aside people will say , a pullback from what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah, we really need to put some snow points on the board before the pullback when we lose the stronger blocking. The Aleutian Low/STJ were pushed pretty far east into the SW US under the block. The more amplified systems to date have forced ridging out ahead of them and a warmer storm track than people liked to see. 500.gif 300.gif If this is right is fine its def not the Euro crud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 If this is right is fine its def not the Euro crud It's meh at best. The marginal Eastern trough signal doesn't negate the fact that the entire country is flooded with PAC air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Park up to 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Park up to 51. +10 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Park up to 51. +10 now. going back to August give or take you can count on the warmth to over perform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Question: Are there any thoughts as to how Alex will affect our weather/the overall pattern? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 12Z euro has support on the EPS for the torch next weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 38 in the western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 40F. Hoping for at least some kind of frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I wasn't paying attention today but while I was out and about we were talking about how comfortable it was and I realized the car thermo said it was 52*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 So far we are just about +2.8 this month, and the next 7 days figure to be +2.0, so by the morning of the 23rd. we should be a little more than +2 for the month The number of below normal days is still being dwarfed by the number of above normal days, and not much different from the ratio maintained since April 01, ie. 4 to 1. So this pattern change has been one of quantity (less positve) and not direction so far. If we finish Jan. at +2(likely) and Feb. does not benefit from a possible SSWE and winds up at +5(unknowable), this will be the warmest meteorological winter ever, when combined with December's +13.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Question: Are there any thoughts as to how Alex will affect our weather/the overall pattern? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Good question,though I don't think anyone honesty knows yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yeah, the only thing that has kept the NYC departure as low as +2.7 this month so far has been the -AO/-EPO pattern. The models begin to reverse the blocking pattern going forward.Temps should begin to warm again around the last week of January as we go more +AO/+EPO. eps_ao_00.png 4panel.png 2 false starts in the guidance and we can't overcome the fast split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It seems we can all agree that the PAC flow is very much hindering our wintry chances thus far. Looking through some stuff this morning, I think that much of the blame for that has to be the fact that this nino has just not been fading as quickly as the seasonal modeling had suggested. That would keep the PAC jet a powerhouse. I remember that being noted as a potential problem for the winter during the fall. I would have to think if this nino was somewhat weaker, then the PAC jet wouldn't be as overpowering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yeah, the only thing that has kept the NYC departure as low as +2.7 this month so far has been the -AO/-EPO pattern. The models begin to reverse the blocking pattern going forward.Temps should begin to warm again around the last week of January as we go more +AO/+EPO. eps_ao_00.png 4panel.png If we go to an EPO+/AO+/PNA+ pattern, things could be ugly for a time. Such a pattern predominated during the February 16-26, 1998 period. Although this El Niño is basinwide vs. that one, the placement of the above normal 500 mb height anomalies during that time in eastern North America closely resembles some of what has been shown on the recent ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 If we go to an EPO+/AO+/PNA+ pattern, things could be ugly for a time. Such a pattern predominated during the February 16-26, 1998 period. Although this El Niño is basinwide vs. that one, the placement of the above normal 500 mb height anomalies during that time in eastern North America closely resembles some of what has been shown on the recent ensembles. it will probably hit 70 again in February if the ao/nao is very positive like it was in December...Hopefully that won't happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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