January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern

[wthrmn654]

Well snowstorms here usually do not bring the cold air with them.    Generally two or three 'round the clock' sub-freezing days precede them and follow them.  A high to the north to trap the cold air and a -NAO or pseudo 50 50 low from a prior miss, will slow things down and do the trick.  So I am searching for a cluster of some sub-32 daily highs.

Um, if we got a classic nor Easter ,and it bombs, it should draw down colder air. Basically low placement would be key.

[ag3]

Well snowstorms here usually do not bring the cold air with them.    Generally two or three 'round the clock' sub-freezing days precede them and follow them.  A high to the north to trap the cold air and a -NAO or pseudo 50 50 low from a prior miss, will slow things down and do the trick.  So I am searching for a cluster of some sub-32 daily highs.

 

This is not true.

A coastal storm for our area almost always involves a northern stream vorticity phase, which in turn creates cold air.

[Brian5671]

temps stuck in the mid 30's here.  Forecast was for 44, but heavy overcast and light N winds putting a lid on things.

[danstorm]

Well snowstorms here usually do not bring the cold air with them.    Generally two or three 'round the clock' sub-freezing days precede them and follow them.  A high to the north to trap the cold air and a -NAO or pseudo 50 50 low from a prior miss, will slow things down and do the trick.  So I am searching for a cluster of some sub-32 daily highs.

 

This couldn't be further from the truth.  

[dmillz25]

Well snowstorms here usually do not bring the cold air with them. Generally two or three 'round the clock' sub-freezing days precede them and follow them. A high to the north to trap the cold air and a -NAO or pseudo 50 50 low from a prior miss, will slow things down and do the trick. So I am searching for a cluster of some sub-32 daily highs.

[SnowGoose69]

Well snowstorms here usually do not bring the cold air with them. Generally two or three 'round the clock' sub-freezing days precede them and follow them. A high to the north to trap the cold air and a -NAO or pseudo 50 50 low from a prior miss, will slow things down and do the trick. So I am searching for a cluster of some sub-32 daily highs.

It depends how strong a system it is, the closer it is to a closed low the more cold air that intrudes. An open wave 1004mb system like January 08 as we learned doesn't bring much cold air

[uncle W]

I took a blend of these analogs for this winter....February and March were the coldest months from average...most of the snowfall and big snows were after January 20th...2004-05 was a winter like these but I did not use it...

winter......5" snowfalls before 1/20 and after...

1899-00.....none......................6.1" 2/17-18...5.0" 3/15-16...

1905-06.....none......................6.0" 2/8-9...6.5" 3/14-15...5.0" 3/19...

1918-19.....none......................none...most snow fell in March...

1940-41.....none......................5.2" 1/26-27...18.1" 3/7-8...

1941-42.....none......................none...two very late March/April storms mostly rain on the coast...

1951-52.....none......................5.5" 1/29...

1957-58.....8.0" 12/3-4............7.9" 2/15-16...11.8" 3/20-21...

1965-66.....none.....................6.8" 1/29-30...6.3" 2/24-25...

1979-80.....none.....................none...4.6" 3/13-14...noreaster 3/31 rain and wet snow....

1982-83.....none.....................17.6" 2/11-12

1986-87.....none.....................8.1" 1/22...

1987-88.....5.8" 1/3...5.2" 1/8...none...noreaster 2/11 mostly rain on the coast...

1991-92.....none.....................6.2" 3/18-19

1994-95.....none.....................10.8" 2/4

2006-07.....none.....................5.5" 3/16

2014-15.....none.....................9.8" 1/26-27...5.3" 2/1-2...7.5" 3/5...

some dates might be off a day or two because I'm going on memory in some cases...only two of the 16 winters had 5" or greater snowfalls before January 20th...1979-80 had a 4.6" storm on 3/13...only four had no 5" or greater storm after January 20th...

[nzucker]

Near to record breaking ridge over the Kara to build across the pole and finally dislodge

the PV from the Arctic. It will link up with the ridge near Alaska and drop the AO

and EPO into negative territory . It may take until day 11-15 for changes

in our sensible weather to occur as the ensembles show an Eastern trough to

replace the long duration ridge.

+600 gpm is as extreme as 500 mb height anomalies get for that part of the world.

eps_z500a_nh_13.png

462dm vortex north of AK? Gotta be cold there.

[bluewave]

The first Arctic airmass of the season for early next week is going to feel cold

compared to how warm it has been. The Euro and GFS both have the first

lows near 20 for NYC of the winter next Tuesday. 

[PB GFI]

The Euro ensembles are now below normal for days 2 thru 6 and day 12 through 15.

There is a quick 5 day transient warm up that is sandwiched in between the pattern changing cold.

SLP continues to show up on the EC on day 12 with actual 850s around - 5.

[Brian5671]

The Euro ensembles are now below normal for days 2 thru 6 and day 12 through 15.

There is a quick 5 day transient warm up that is sandwiched in between the pattern changing cold.

SLP continues to show up on the EC on day 12 with actual 850s around - 5.

just need a couple of storms in there and everyone will be happy

[Allsnow]

Eps really improved from last night....Pv pressing down with a over running look

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Eps really improved from last night....Pv pressing down with a over running look

Agree. I think people need to put their -NAO dreams on hold for another couple of weeks. Pattern progression still looks very nice through mid month.

[Allsnow]

Agree. I think people need to put their -NAO dreams on hold for another couple of weeks. Pattern progression still looks very nice through mid month.

It's a ton better then what we have been dealing with in December. I don't believe a -nao until it's 6hrs out lol

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

It's a ton better then what we have been dealing with in December. I don't believe a -nao until it's 6hrs out lol

Yep. Check the east-based madness of a -NAO on the 18z GFS. Fool me once...lol

[wthrmn654]

Glad to see positive news. Last nights runs were horrible! Models struggling with the big pattern change no doubt

[SnoSki14]

Glad to see positive news. Last nights runs were horrible! Models struggling with the big pattern change no doubt

Eh horrible? Maybe they took a step back a bit but far from horrible.

Not the least bit surprised over the model turmoil as that's very common during transitional periods.

I really like what I see moving forward and while the pattern may not be "perfect", it's one that'll keep us on our toes.

We're looking better than say Jan 83 at this point as Don described with the help of the tanking AO.

[SnowGoose69]

Glad to see positive news. Last nights runs were horrible! Models struggling with the big pattern change no doubt

The GFS has always been anti pattern change. Even when it's cold and going warm the GFS never seems to want to let go. As a whole the EPS has been way more optimistic than the GFS but we all know 95 out of 100 times the Euro shows a change that agrees with the direction the major indices are going and the GFS doesn't the Euro ends up right

[Dsnowx53]

It's a ton better then what we have been dealing with in December. I don't believe a -nao until it's 6hrs out lol

 

 

Yeah I don't think any true NAO block will form until after the actual SSW that should hopefully happen around January 20th.

 

But considering everything else that's improving, just some ridging into Greenland along with the diving AO dislodging the PV should be enough for some threats. The PAC Jet will always be near-by, which can both be a blessing (for storm activity) and a curse if it's too strong. 

 

Regardless, I'm looking forward to ~January 10th. 

[Zelocita Weather]

New GFS looks pretty good for January, mostly near or slightly below normal temps, and fairly active pattern.

[Morris]

New GFS looks pretty good for January, mostly near or slightly below normal temps, and fairly active pattern.

And the Euro is even colder for the first week.

[bluewave]

Initial brief Arctic shot Monday into Tuesday followed by warm up. The real pattern

changer appears to be a storm modeled by the EPS Jan 10-11 that finally pulls

the trough into the East day 10-15. We are probably looking at the strongest

-EPO/+PNA/-AO pattern in January for an El Nino event of 2.0C or greater since 1950.

 

[Morris]

Initial brief Arctic shot Monday into Tuesday followed by warm up. The real pattern

changer appears to be a storm modeled by the EPS Jan 10-11 that finally pulls

the trough into the East day 10-15. We are probably looking at the strongest

-EPO/+PNA/-AO pattern in January for an El Nino event of 2.0C or greater since 1950.

Don't confuse a pattern change with a pattern flip.

The first week of January as modeled is clearly a pattern change.

[Morris]

The first week isn't the full pattern change here yet since it will take the storm on the 10-11

to finally boot the long range ridge out that has been stuck here since May. Week one

is only the transition or bridge pattern that is stepping down from the extreme warmth.

It is happening in an historic manner with record height anomalies going up over the

Kara and eventually building back over the pole. +610GPM is as extreme a block as

you will ever see in that part of the world. But that's what is needed to eject

the vortex from the Arctic.

eps_z500a_nh_9.png

Thanks!

[PB GFI]

Story this morning for the next 15 days .

MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE is here.

Below normal Temps Jan 1 thru 6 as one day KNYC may not hit freezing.

Warm up muted. Likely 3 days max , weaker and it's gone.

The seasons first winter storm is possible around day 11

Followed by a arctic outbreak days 11 thru 15 .

Happy new year.

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

You are completely ignoring the lack of a -NAO. Show me a strong El Niño that was cold and snowy in the absence of a -NAO style block. Until you see that modeled consistently inside of a week get used to a transient patten, a lot of mild Pacific air flooding the US and a lack of snow in the Atlantic Coastal Plain.

[Morris]

Story this morning for the next 15 days .

MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE is here.

Below normal Temps Jan 1 thru 6 as one day KNYC may not hit freezing.

Warm up muted. Likely 3 days max , weaker and it's gone.

The seasons first winter storm is possible around day 11

Followed by a arctic outbreak days 11 thru 15 .

Happy new year.

The 7th is 25/41 on the Euro. Around average. The 8th is slightly above average. Only the 9th is decently above average.

[PB GFI]

You are completely ignoring the lack of a -NAO. Show me a strong El Niño that was cold and snowy in the absence of a -NAO style block. Until you see that modeled consistently inside of a week get used to a transient patten, a lot of mild Pacific air flooding the US and a lack of snow in the Atlantic Coastal Plain.

-epo/+pna air bends the jet off the Asian continent sends it over the top and all this air ends up becoming low level dense arctic air.

I explained this 2 weeks ago as to why the models will get colder as it gets closer . The stability of arctic air masses are different than pacific air.

The models just don't see it in the LR.

The 500 mb look is no different for day 2 thru 6 as they were day 11 they 15 9 daya ago when everyone looked at N 850 anomalies and said that's plus 5 at the surface.

Now those anomalies are showing up as - 10 . Again the day 6 thru 10 anomalies shows up under a transient ridge as a week of plus 6 now they are plus 3 .

And now the new 11 to 15 is bringing you the 1st seasons first large arctic outbreak.

Blocking alone does determine if your cold. Don't root on too much of a neg nao or DC gets burried.

-EPO+PNA+AO STJ is a good enough recipe.

[Brian5671]

-epo/+pna air bends the jet off the Asian continent sends it over the top and all this air ends up becoming low level dense arctic air.

I explained this 2 weeks ago as to why the models will get colder as it gets closer . The stability of arctic air masses are different than pacific air.

The models just don't see it in the LR.

The 500 mb look is no different for day 2 thru 6 as they were day 11 they 15 9 daya ago when everyone looked at N 850 anomalies and said that's plus 5 at the surface.

Now those anomalies are showing up as - 10 . Again the day 6 thru 10 anomalies shows up under a transient ridge as a week of plus 6 now they are plus 3 .

And now the new 11 to 15 is bringing you the 1st seasons first large arctic outbreak.

Blocking alone does determine if your cold. Don't root on too much of a neg nao or DC gets burried.

-EPO+PNA+AO STJ is a good enough recipe.

Bingo.   Remember 09-10.   Areas north of NYC really got the screwgie and NYC did for the 1st two storms 1/30 hit south of Philly and 2/5 south of NYC.   Interesting point on models not seeing the arctic air-looks how often they don't even see it in the short range....low level arctic air is often under modeled.

[mob1]

I get the benefit of a -NAO, but after the last 2 years I don't understand how anyone can use it as a be all end all argument for a lack of cold and snow. The upcoming pattern might not be a textbook blockbuster, but it's plenty good and not merely "not as terrible as December".