Doorman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 no talk for the Feb CFS weekly progs? Monthly NCEP ENS 850mb temp anoms thru Jan 27th http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_nhsm_animation.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 CFS has been historically pretty bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 CFS has been historically pretty bad It has the worst verification scores out of the CANSIPS, ECM Weeklies/Monthlies, NAEFS, and JMA weeklies I can only hope the changes in the next few years will help it out. Otherwise, it may be time to drag it behind the barn and finish it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Park at 38/27 still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 no talk for the Feb CFS weekly progs? Monthly NCEP ENS 850mb temp anoms thru Jan 27th http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_nhsm_animation.html Do u agree with the temps forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Do u agree with the temps forecasted The weekly looks OK imo the monthly is obviously overdone EURO ens at 240hrs 850mb temps anoms ---north of the border falls in line with milder trends ATM we know it is guesswork..still the overall look has merit with a blend of the guidance available GEFS loop for good measure http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016011218&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=0 not a forecast here...just showing the mashup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Picked up a light dusting from a snow shower that delivered a brief burst of moderate snow. Sad that this dusting is the highlight of the winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Nothing doing for NYC other than maybe a flurry. Snow showers to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 no talk for the Feb CFS weekly progs? Monthly NCEP ENS 850mb temp anoms thru Jan 27th http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_nhsm_animation.html The CFS is pretty much a crapshoot until the last 5-7 days of the proceeding month. I'll typical start giving it a glance around the 23rd of each month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The CFS is pretty much a crapshoot until the last 5-7 days of the proceeding month. I'll typical start giving it a glance around the 23rd of each month We will keep this in mind...thank ya SG Out west the Gulf of Alaska LP Gyre just won't give it up http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_day4-8loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's snowing omfg!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Park down to 33. At least we won't have a ridiculous midnight high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Park at 32, Newark at 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Snowing so hard right now. Everything's white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The next storm coming up on 1/16 looks insanely annoying. If that primary was a little weaker, it would be enough to dynamically cool from the coastal storm for heavy snow everywhere with a track like the GFS has. Well inland, especially from the Catskills north, might be able to salvage a decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Park at 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 12z Rgem has several hours of light snow tomorrow morning from 4am to 9am for NYC/LI/NNJ and north. We could be waking up to coatings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 12z Rgem has several hours of light snow tomorrow morning from 4am to 9am for NYC/LI/NNJ and north. We could be waking up to coatings. Snow accumulation forecast through 1/15 0z from the 12z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 NWS seems to think the air will be too dry. I'm gonna wait for 1-2 more Rgem cycles before we can get a better idea. Nam has the same general idea as well. Temps will be cold and only hundredths of an inch of precip could yield a fluffy coating to half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 NWS seems to think the air will be too dry. I'm gonna wait for 1-2 more Rgem cycles before we can get a better idea. Nam has the same general idea as well. Temps will be cold and only hundredths of an inch of precip could yield a fluffy coating to half inch. Where did this snow suddenly come from?? at no point during this week was there talk from anyone or any model about light snow b4 the Fri storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 NWS seems to think the air will be too dry. I'm gonna wait for 1-2 more Rgem cycles before we can get a better idea. Nam has the same general idea as well. Temps will be cold and only hundredths of an inch of precip could yield a fluffy coating to half inch. I lean toward the NWS idea. However, as the RGEM is arguably the best short-term model, I'm not completely dismissing its idea. The 18z and 0z runs will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Wow....the 12z GFS is much closer to the coast on this run. That's quite a change. It'd be the miracle of all miracles, but if the first system keeps on speeding up then we could see a slight adjustment further west Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Wow....the 12z GFS is much closer to the coast on this run. That's quite a change. It'd be the miracle of all miracles, but if the first system keeps on speeding up then we could see a slight adjustment further west Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk The further east the first storm is the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Wow....the 12z GFS is much closer to the coast on this run. That's quite a change. It'd be the miracle of all miracles, but if the first system keeps on speeding up then we could see a slight adjustment further west Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk The first system is way OTS. It's the second system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The energy is more consolidated and is tucked more into the coastline. 06z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The energy is more consolidated and is tucked more into the coastline. 06z 12z That's all because the initial southern S/W gets out the way just in time to allow the height field to recover for the second system. It also created move spacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That's all because the initial southern S/W gets out the way just in time to allow the height field to recover for the second system. It also created move spacing. Now we just need the other models to start to catch on to this. I do like that the GFS and the PARA-GFS haven't wavered, though. It gives you a bit of pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The first system is way OTS. It's the second system.The first system is the Saturday storm. I referring to the follow-up storm that comes up behind it. It's ots, but close Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 i want to see hits on the gfes before biting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 i want to see hits on the gfes before biting Yup and the euro and it's ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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