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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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Despite the more favorable blocking pattern, the very strong El Nino and raging STJ are

still lowering pressures over the SW US . This results in the more amplified

storms pumping the ridge over the Northeast just enough for a warmer storm

track than people want to see. That's how this past weekends storm and the one

around the 16th come further NW than the long range models showed.

The model skill really struggles with such a fast flow pattern in the long range.

JAN.gif

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_5.png

good post. Despite what appears to be a good pattern the big cold is off to our west as is the storm track. Day 7-10 models clueless
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good post. Despite what appears to be a good pattern the big cold is off to our west as is the storm track. Day 7-10 models clueless

 

I will give the new hi res parallel Euro that is set to go operational in March points for seeing the more NW track of the 

primary this weekend ahead of the current old OP. But longer term even the EPS couldn't handle the 

the fast flow in this very strong El Nino. The El Nino has been finding a way to put a trough

in the West ever since last May regardless of the phase of the AO, NAO, or EPO.

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Low of 25 in the park.

If we go up to 41, it will be above average as well.

 

Next 10 days splits  @ KNYC  

N 38/27 32.5 as per 0z EURO @ 2M

 

 

13 42/26  + 1.5

14 31/24 - 5

15 36/28 - .05

16 41/36  +6

17 41/36  +6 

18 38/28  +.05

 

19 32/18  - 7.5

20 26/16  -11

21 28/16  -10.5

22 34/26 - 2.5   

 

- 2.35 over the next days 10 days ***

 

Without snow , you guys are not going to be happy . Here may be one small chance . Don`t just look at the surface you have to look at the VV .

SLP will run under the base of the trough , we are not there yet ( again wait 5 days ) but in the past sometimes these have gotten better as we got closer .

Notice that you snow through - 10 air . 

f162.gif

 

 

f168.gif

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That Euro temp forecast is not off to a good start.  We're at 33/25 on the day at it's only 10am.

 

Edit:  Although PB, I think your dates are off.

 

 

That Euro temp forecast is not off to a good start.  We're at 33/25 on the day at it's only 10am.

 

Edit:  Although PB, I think your dates are off.

 

Starts today . HRES prob too cold this afternoon . it thought 24 this AM ,. missed by 1 . 

Has a H today of 35 . 

 

Did great during Jan 1- 10  

Will look at after the 22nd and see where we stand  .  

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The cold has been muted as we approach. This week is milder than forecast from last week. Makes you wonder how cold those 7-10#'s will turn out to be

Exactly. This Friday and Sat were not supposed to be anywhere near the mid 40s so why should I expect it to be right predicting mid 20s on the 21st? Maybe it will but its far from a certainty

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Next 10 days splits  @ KNYC  

N 38/27 32.5 as per 0z EURO @ 2M

 

12 42/26  + 1.5

13 31/24 - 5

14 36/28 - .05

15 41/36  +6

16 41/36  +6 

17 38/28  +.05

 

18 32/18  - 7.5

19 26/16  -11

20 28/16  -10.5

21 34/26 - 2.5   

 

- 2.35 over the next days 10 days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pazzo - Chris these are the correct dates from the EURO meteograms . They were off by a day .

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Park hit 43. AN today after being slightly AN yesterday.[/quote

Might be hard pressed to have more than another 2-3 BN days rest of month

There will very likely be more.

 

The MEX MOS shows 4 through its 7-day timeframe for NYC:

 

1/13: 31-26

1/14: 38-23

1/18: 33-27

1/19: 31-25

 

The normal split for those dates is 38-27

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Wind advisory issued areawide for gusts to 50 mph

 

...STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
130500-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.160113T0100Z-160113T1800Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
348 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...HIGHEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

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Public Information Statement

Statement as of 4:03 PM EST on January 12, 2016

The following are unofficial observations taken during the storm that

has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to Highway

departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn spotters and social

media for these reports. This summary is also available on our home

Page at weather.Gov/phi

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments

                     snowfall of

                     /inches/ measurement

New Jersey

... Sussex County...

   Wantage 0.3 356 PM 1/12 trained spotter

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