wthrmn654 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 NOAA completes weather and climate supercomputer upgrades Nearly four-fold increase in computing capacity to innovate U.S. forecasting in 2016 http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2016/011116-noaa-completes-weather-and-climate-supercomputer-upgrades.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Park down to 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 24 in the western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 19 here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Park down to 29. Have a shot at ending up average for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Despite the more favorable blocking pattern, the very strong El Nino and raging STJ are still lowering pressures over the SW US . This results in the more amplified storms pumping the ridge over the Northeast just enough for a warmer storm track than people want to see. That's how this past weekends storm and the one around the 16th come further NW than the long range models showed. The model skill really struggles with such a fast flow pattern in the long range. JAN.gif ecmwf_z500a_nhem_5.png good post. Despite what appears to be a good pattern the big cold is off to our west as is the storm track. Day 7-10 models clueless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Today ends above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 pretty strong clipper incoming soon and no one even cares lol..on the bright side,we will have some snow finally falling and hopefully more to come soon. :snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Today ends above average. Two of the last forty-two days have had a mean temperature below normal at Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 good post. Despite what appears to be a good pattern the big cold is off to our west as is the storm track. Day 7-10 models clueless I will give the new hi res parallel Euro that is set to go operational in March points for seeing the more NW track of the primary this weekend ahead of the current old OP. But longer term even the EPS couldn't handle the the fast flow in this very strong El Nino. The El Nino has been finding a way to put a trough in the West ever since last May regardless of the phase of the AO, NAO, or EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Low of 25 in the park. If we go up to 41, it will be above average as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Low of 25 in the park. If we go up to 41, it will be above average as well. Next 10 days splits @ KNYC N 38/27 32.5 as per 0z EURO @ 2M 13 42/26 + 1.5 14 31/24 - 5 15 36/28 - .05 16 41/36 +6 17 41/36 +6 18 38/28 +.05 19 32/18 - 7.5 20 26/16 -11 21 28/16 -10.5 22 34/26 - 2.5 - 2.35 over the next days 10 days *** Without snow , you guys are not going to be happy . Here may be one small chance . Don`t just look at the surface you have to look at the VV . SLP will run under the base of the trough , we are not there yet ( again wait 5 days ) but in the past sometimes these have gotten better as we got closer . Notice that you snow through - 10 air . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Sunrise this morning (19° at HPN and 27° in NYC): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That Euro temp forecast is not off to a good start. We're at 33/25 on the day at it's only 10am. Edit: Although PB, I think your dates are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The cold has been muted as we approach. This week is milder than forecast from last week. Makes you wonder how cold those 7-10#'s will turn out to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That Euro temp forecast is not off to a good start. We're at 33/25 on the day at it's only 10am. Edit: Although PB, I think your dates are off. That Euro temp forecast is not off to a good start. We're at 33/25 on the day at it's only 10am. Edit: Although PB, I think your dates are off. Starts today . HRES prob too cold this afternoon . it thought 24 this AM ,. missed by 1 . Has a H today of 35 . Did great during Jan 1- 10 Will look at after the 22nd and see where we stand . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The cold has been muted as we approach. This week is milder than forecast from last week. Makes you wonder how cold those 7-10#'s will turn out to be Exactly. This Friday and Sat were not supposed to be anywhere near the mid 40s so why should I expect it to be right predicting mid 20s on the 21st? Maybe it will but its far from a certainty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Latest RGEM forecast and a skating scene from Central Park... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Park up to 38 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Park up to 38 already. With a light southerly flow ahead of the clipper, NYC will probably top out at a degree or two above the 40° figure on the 12z GFS MOS. The NAM MOS shows 42° and that seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Park 40 JFK 42 Westhampton 43 after hitting 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Temps stuck in the mid 30s just N and W of town Morristown 35 Newberg 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Next 10 days splits @ KNYC N 38/27 32.5 as per 0z EURO @ 2M 12 42/26 + 1.5 13 31/24 - 5 14 36/28 - .05 15 41/36 +6 16 41/36 +6 17 38/28 +.05 18 32/18 - 7.5 19 26/16 -11 20 28/16 -10.5 21 34/26 - 2.5 - 2.35 over the next days 10 days Pazzo - Chris these are the correct dates from the EURO meteograms . They were off by a day . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Pazzo - Chris these are the correct dates from the EURO meteograms . They were off by a day . Ok, that makes more sense. The 12th being 34/25 had looked like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Ok, that makes more sense. The 12th being 34/25 had looked like yesterday. Yes , Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Park hit 43. AN today after being slightly AN yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Park hit 43. AN today after being slightly AN yesterday.[/quote Might be hard pressed to have more than another 2-3 BN days rest of month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Park hit 43. AN today after being slightly AN yesterday.[/quote Might be hard pressed to have more than another 2-3 BN days rest of month There will very likely be more. The MEX MOS shows 4 through its 7-day timeframe for NYC: 1/13: 31-26 1/14: 38-23 1/18: 33-27 1/19: 31-25 The normal split for those dates is 38-27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wind advisory issued areawide for gusts to 50 mph ...STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-130500-/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.160113T0100Z-160113T1800Z/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-348 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM ESTWEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINDADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM ESTWEDNESDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION.* HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS.* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.* TIMING...HIGHEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Public Information Statement Statement as of 4:03 PM EST on January 12, 2016 The following are unofficial observations taken during the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn spotters and social media for these reports. This summary is also available on our home Page at weather.Gov/phi ********************storm total snowfall******************** Location storm total time/date comments snowfall of /inches/ measurement New Jersey ... Sussex County... Wantage 0.3 356 PM 1/12 trained spotter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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