Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Currently we are exactly normal for Jan. Next 8 days figure to be +6 by the GFSx so this would put us at +3 for the month by the morning of the 16th. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Not likely given the cold that comes Wed on of next week. Mon and Tue are not that warm either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Currently we are exactly normal for Jan. Next 8 days figure to be +6 by the GFSx so this would put us at +3 for the month by the morning of the 16th. http://www.nws.noaa....a=KJFK&sta=KLGA Wholeheartedly and respectfully call BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 With the AO forecast to drop to -4.000 or below toward mid-January, I took a look at all January cases (1950-2015) during which the AO first reached -4.000 at January 15 +/- 10 days. I then looked at the number of days on which measurable snow fell during two periods, one beginning on the date when the AO reached -4.000 and ending 30 days later and the other with same starting point but ending 45 days later. I also looked at total snowfall during those periods. Below are the data for New York City: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 With the AO forecast to drop to -4.000 or below toward mid-January, I took a look at all January cases (1950-2015) during which the AO first reached -4.000 at January 15 +/- 10 days. I then looked at the number of days on which measurable snow fell during two periods, one beginning on the date when the AO reached -4.000 and ending 30 days later and the other with same starting point but ending 45 days later. I also looked at total snowfall during those periods. Below are the data for New York City: Wow....that's a pretty strong signal for a snowfall at some point in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Wow....that's a pretty strong signal for a snowfall at some point in NYC I agree. In addition, 1958, 1966, and 1979 all had KU snowstorms within the 30-days following the AO's drop to -4.000 or below and 1969 had one within 45 days. Put another way, 50% of the El Niño cases wound up having a KU snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Seems the 12Z EURO took the suppressed GFS and suppressed it even further, so that none of EC benefits from the decent pattern. Much colder run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Seems the 12Z EURO took the suppressed GFS and suppressed it even further, so that none of EC benefits from the decent pattern. Much colder run. The subtropical jet was quite active on the GFS. If that winds up being the case, we should get some opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 If there is snow cover down , N and W go to 0 if this is right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 If there is snow cover down , N and W go to 0 if this is right . This is one nice cool shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Seems the 12Z EURO took the suppressed GFS and suppressed it even further, so that none of EC benefits from the decent pattern. Much colder run. Havent seen the EPS yet which would be more reliable at this range BUT I would much rather have a potential large-scale phase job vort being suppressed as opposed to a cutter. It just seems that 9 out of 10 times when a cutter is progged the track never recovers to a favorable one for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Yes please! That block is more powerful than the one we saw for the blizzard in 2010. That's just an epic pattern if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Going to be the fourth January out of five with an extreme temperature swing during the first 11 days of the month for NYC. January 1-11 temperature range 2016...high near 60 Sunday.....low 11 2015...high.........56................low...8 2014...high.........58................low...4 2012...high.........62................low...14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 0.77" at the park before 7 am. Lots more to go. 1.72" is the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Heavy rains and flooding for several more hours as the warm front is working north. Temps already close to 60 south of the warm front in Southern NJ. So record warmth potential here today. Then temps head back down again this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Have picked up 1.35" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Was driving back and forth from mill basin to bed stuy and back several times. It was pouring most of the time. At least an inch has fallen so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Central Park is up to 1.70". 0.03" more needed to break the daily record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Up to 60F and muggy, December makes a quick appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 56℉ max wind 44 mph 1.30" rainfall Coastal flooding. Had to close park due to rocks debris being thrown onto roadway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Thunder in wantagh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 61 now..lmao at how cold we were supposed to get..nothing more run of the mill coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Sun coming out in lower Manhattan. Nice spring morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Loud claps of thunder and a few impressive wind gusts here in Lindenhurst! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Seeing some pictures of pretty widespread flooding in low lying areas of Long Beach this morning. The state/Feds need to fix this problem now-it's been more than 3 years since Sandy. They dodged a huge bullet with Joaquin-it wouldn't have taken a much closer track to have caused a bad flood there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 A photo from this morning: Through 1 pm, Central Park had picked up 1.77" rain. That broke the daily precipitation record of 1.72", which was set in 1888. 1888 became known for a different storm in the NYC area that occurred in March. So far, the high temperature in NYC is 58°. The daily record is 60°, which was set in 1876. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 63 here push push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 1PM Round up NYC: 58 EWR: 63 LGA: 57 JFK: 57 New Brunswick: 62 TTN: 63 PHL: 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Cleared up around here out ahead of that squall line in Western NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 64..how high will we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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