psv88 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Just a taste for now. So one of the top analogs for the tropical forcing/OLR anomalies in the Pacific I came up with based on the current trends and coupled with the EPS/GEFS forecasts was something that I wasn't going to bring up until now. The only reason that I'm going to mention it now is due to the support from the GFS/ECM/JMA/CMC that I have seen so far today. Back in late January 2010, we saw a tropical cyclone develop near the French Polynesian Islands in the south Pacific named Uli, which is an occurrence that has happened around six times in recorded history. The global models have been insisting that a tropical cyclone much like Uli, will develop over the next week due in part to massive amounts of 200hpa VPA which will greatly enhance convection and in turn lower shear. Basically, the pattern observed in 2010 with Uli and the pattern that is ongoing (and forecast to occur) are very close to one another. You can see the significant area occur near the dateline with the piling up of OLR anomalies which helps to shift over the Aleutian troughing farther west. Next off, there is a ribbon of enhanced convective activity originating near the equator which extends into into southern CONUS. This area is directly linked to the sub tropical jet and would provide a generous moisture boost to the pattern. Now when we screen this OLR events upper level pattern over the Northern Hemisphere and compare them to current model progs, things begin to line up. The most reliable global models continue to see that the Arctic Oscillation is forecast to crash into the -4 to -6 range over the next week. The last time we saw a similar crash with a positive ENSO phase was....you guessed it... the 1/29/10-2/8/10 period. The 500mb pattern with the European Ensembles is not a perfect match up in north central Canada as of 12z 1/6, but the GFS (which I will not be using in any major forecasts) and the Canadian Ens show a large block in that area, so I will leave everything the way they are for now. Keep an eye on the following things when comparing the 500mb patterns below. 1) The very strong negative AO and NAO 2) Negative height anomalies originating over the south west. This would increase the likelihood of systems that are enhanced by the STJ and are very moisture laden 3) The negative anomalies over the CONUS hooking up with negative anomalies over Europe. This is just a classic pattern for those along the east coast for colder/stormier weather. 4) Riding over Russia hooking up into the ridging over the poles. This would be able to supply more frequent cold shots with a heightened chance for prolonged cold over the central and eastern CONUS 5) Below average heights below the Aleutians I'm not quite done yet looking at everything but all I will conclude right now is that there are some impressive similarities. If things play out the way that they seem they could, then things are going to get very interesting. Again, this is not a forecast and I am not saying this is going to happen. I should have everything regarding research wrapped up this weekend. I'm exhausted, so I apologize for any grammatical errors Good work! Thanks for posting that. Things are looking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GFS changing every run. Has a major arctic blast for next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Park got down to 31 (+4) Newark 24 (-1). Newark is guaranteed a below normal first week because of yesterday's and today's lows. Most of the area will be similar. JFK 27 (-0) LGA 32 (+5) Westhampton 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Park got down to 31 (+4) Newark 24 (-1). Newark is guaranteed a below normal first week because of yesterday's and today's lows. Most of the area will be similar. JFK 27 (-0) LGA 32 (+5) Westhampton 8. ..yeah..another cold morning out here..i got down to 14*..heavy,heavy frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsnowBubble Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Super93 .... nice write up. I note your analog to late to 1/29/10 to 2/8/10.... if I remember temps were not brutal but that February featured decent snow events.... one can hope. Better patten for at least potential. Thanks for thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 If the AO can make it down to -5 or lower, then it would be the first time in January following such a positive November and December. In fact, the only other Novembers and Decembers with both monthly AO readings above +1.000 were 2011 and 2013. Previous November and December AO values before a -5 or lower daily January reading: Year.....November.....December....lowest daily January reading..positives bolded 62-63.....-1.112............-0.711...............-5.010 65-66.....-1.341...........+0.163...............-5.130 76-77.....-0.087...........-2.074................-7.433 84-85.....-0.966...........+0.446................-6.226 09-10.....+0.459...........-3.413................-5.533 15-16.....+1.945...........+1.444................????? Chris , after this 4 day warm up the next cold shot is a 10 to 12 day period of BN . The Euro is deepening the Neg again in the SE on day 15 , it gets cut off under all this blocking . The - departures never leave and gives us a full 2 week shot of being BN with LP in the SE and along the EC. It really is a great pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Chris , check out the new JMA weeklies. We flip and stay flipped through all of Jan. I think that is supported by the day 15 EPS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm exhausted, so I apologize for any grammatical errors I didn't quote to entire post in order to save space, but wanted to say thanks for posting. This is very informative material! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Great stuff superstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yup, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Curious, since say, November till today.. is there any way for anyone to compare the modeled data against what actually occurred? To show off Come up with a way to determine accuracy? Be interesting to see how they played out against there predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Curious, since say, November till today.. is there any way for anyone to compare the modeled data against what actually occurred? To show off Come up with a way to determine accuracy? Be interesting to see how they played out against there predictions. They were all AN for N and D . The Euro seasonal was always the colder guidance /more favorable at 500. The CFS is now coming to the Euro for the last 3 weeks of Jan . It will correct it's Feb forecast as it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Just a taste for now. So one of the top analogs for the tropical forcing/OLR anomalies in the Pacific I came up with based on the current trends and coupled with the EPS/GEFS forecasts was something that I wasn't going to bring up until now. The only reason that I'm going to mention it now is due to the support from the GFS/ECM/JMA/CMC that I have seen so far today. Back in late January 2010, we saw a tropical cyclone develop near the French Polynesian Islands in the south Pacific named Uli, which is an occurrence that has happened around six times in recorded history. The global models have been insisting that a tropical cyclone much like Uli, will develop over the next week due in part to massive amounts of 200hpa VPA which will greatly enhance convection and in turn lower shear. Basically, the pattern observed in 2010 with Uli and the pattern that is ongoing (and forecast to occur) are very close to one another. You can see the significant area occur near the dateline with the piling up of OLR anomalies which helps to shift over the Aleutian troughing farther west. Next off, there is a ribbon of enhanced convective activity originating near the equator which extends into into southern CONUS. This area is directly linked to the sub tropical jet and would provide a generous moisture boost to the pattern. Now when we screen this OLR events upper level pattern over the Northern Hemisphere and compare them to current model progs, things begin to line up. The most reliable global models continue to see that the Arctic Oscillation is forecast to crash into the -4 to -6 range over the next week. The last time we saw a similar crash with a positive ENSO phase was....you guessed it... the 1/29/10-2/8/10 period. The 500mb pattern with the European Ensembles is not a perfect match up in north central Canada as of 12z 1/6, but the GFS (which I will not be using in any major forecasts) and the Canadian Ens show a large block in that area, so I will leave everything the way they are for now. Keep an eye on the following things when comparing the 500mb patterns below. 1) The very strong negative AO and NAO 2) Negative height anomalies originating over the south west. This would increase the likelihood of systems that are enhanced by the STJ and are very moisture laden 3) The negative anomalies over the CONUS hooking up with negative anomalies over Europe. This is just a classic pattern for those along the east coast for colder/stormier weather. 4) Riding over Russia hooking up into the ridging over the poles. This would be able to supply more frequent cold shots with a heightened chance for prolonged cold over the central and eastern CONUS 5) Below average heights below the Aleutians I'm not quite done yet looking at everything but all I will conclude right now is that there are some impressive similarities. If things play out the way that they seem they could, then things are going to get very interesting. Again, this is not a forecast and I am not saying this is going to happen. I should have everything regarding research wrapped up this weekend. I'm exhausted, so I apologize for any grammatical errors Outstanding. Another added to my ensemble of must-read posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Last 4 days low Temps here of ....13,9,15 and 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Just a taste for now. So one of the top analogs for the tropical forcing/OLR anomalies in the Pacific I came up with based on the current trends and coupled with the EPS/GEFS forecasts was something that I wasn't going to bring up until now. The only reason that I'm going to mention it now is due to the support from the GFS/ECM/JMA/CMC that I have seen so far today. Back in late January 2010, we saw a tropical cyclone develop near the French Polynesian Islands in the south Pacific named Uli, which is an occurrence that has happened around six times in recorded history. The global models have been insisting that a tropical cyclone much like Uli, will develop over the next week due in part to massive amounts of 200hpa VPA which will greatly enhance convection and in turn lower shear. Basically, the pattern observed in 2010 with Uli and the pattern that is ongoing (and forecast to occur) are very close to one another. You can see the significant area occur near the dateline with the piling up of OLR anomalies which helps to shift over the Aleutian troughing farther west. Next off, there is a ribbon of enhanced convective activity originating near the equator which extends into into southern CONUS. This area is directly linked to the sub tropical jet and would provide a generous moisture boost to the pattern. Now when we screen this OLR events upper level pattern over the Northern Hemisphere and compare them to current model progs, things begin to line up. The most reliable global models continue to see that the Arctic Oscillation is forecast to crash into the -4 to -6 range over the next week. The last time we saw a similar crash with a positive ENSO phase was....you guessed it... the 1/29/10-2/8/10 period. The 500mb pattern with the European Ensembles is not a perfect match up in north central Canada as of 12z 1/6, but the GFS (which I will not be using in any major forecasts) and the Canadian Ens show a large block in that area, so I will leave everything the way they are for now. Keep an eye on the following things when comparing the 500mb patterns below. 1) The very strong negative AO and NAO 2) Negative height anomalies originating over the south west. This would increase the likelihood of systems that are enhanced by the STJ and are very moisture laden 3) The negative anomalies over the CONUS hooking up with negative anomalies over Europe. This is just a classic pattern for those along the east coast for colder/stormier weather. 4) Riding over Russia hooking up into the ridging over the poles. This would be able to supply more frequent cold shots with a heightened chance for prolonged cold over the central and eastern CONUS 5) Below average heights below the Aleutians I'm not quite done yet looking at everything but all I will conclude right now is that there are some impressive similarities. If things play out the way that they seem they could, then things are going to get very interesting. Again, this is not a forecast and I am not saying this is going to happen. I should have everything regarding research wrapped up this weekend. I'm exhausted, so I apologize for any grammatical errors no problem...great post...I make many grammatical errors while wide awake...I couldn't write my way out of a paper bag but I digress...seeing the AO/NAO tank to -4 or lower usually means we will see some real wintry weather in the near future...The AO was near record high levels just a few weeks ago...Now it's forecast to be near record low levels...the nao is also forecast to drop into negative territory...the blizzard of Jan. 96, Feb. 78, Dec. 60, had a +pna and a negative ao and nao...The big three for 2009-10 had a plus pna and negative ao/nao... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Park at 42 before 11 am. Nice positive departure today. The warm-up seems to be for 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Park at 42 before 11 am. Nice positive departure today. The warm-up seems to be for 5 days. It will be interesting to see what our departure is by Monday, GFS has some serious cold behind the clipper next week. I think the wild card will be the last 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The 12z GFS is about 1.75" of rain for Saturday into Sunday and the 12z GGEM is 2.50-3.00". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 It will be interesting to see what our departure is by Monday, GFS has some serious cold behind the clipper next week. I think the wild card will be the last 10 days. The 1st 6 days were BN after the 10th you are AN after the 20th you are BN . Depending on / if there is snow cover the 20 -25 is N to BN now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 It will be interesting to see what our departure is by Monday, GFS has some serious cold behind the clipper next week. I think the wild card will be the last 10 days. Here's your "serious cold" behind that clipper. Pretty seasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Here's your "serious cold" behind that clipper. Pretty seasonable. Better for storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The 12z GFS is about 1.75" of rain for Saturday into Sunday and the 12z GGEM is 2.50-3.00". 0.9"-1.2" on the GFS. I don't know how you get your numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Here's your "serious cold" behind that clipper. Pretty seasonable. What are the 850 MB anomalies for the same timeframe? The shading is odd and runs about 1-4 degrees below normal for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 LOL, been happening for years And the Canadian has 2 inches clean. I don't know why he thinks he gets to make up accumulations on every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Here's your "serious cold" behind that clipper. Pretty seasonable. this is a classic blocking setup where you see the coldest anomalies South and West while Maine is above normal-great pattern going forward. You don't want bitter cold over us-can lead to cold/dry, take the -1 to -3 and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 this is a classic blocking setup where you see the coldest anomalies South and West while Maine is above normal-great pattern going forward. You don't want bitter cold over us-can lead to cold/dry, take the -1 to -3 and run Plus our source region is the pac or w/e ridge we get from the PNA...no true -epo like we had the last two winters....yes we have a crazy block with -nao but we are trapping just cold enough air. That's usually how strong el ninos are. That's no bootleg block on the 12z GFS op wow crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Plus our source region is the pac or w/e ridge we get from the PNA...no true -epo like we had the last two winters....yes we have a crazy block with -nao but we are trapping just cold enough air. That's usually how strong el ninos are. That's no bootleg block on the 12z GFS op wow crazy That's a sweet west base block on the Gefs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 That's a sweet west base block on the Gefs... yes, hopefully we get a good storm too form during the timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 And the Canadian has 2 inches clean. I don't know why he thinks he gets to make up accumulations on every storm. So are you only looking at NYC proper or the average of the area as whole? The further NW you travel, the wetter the models are, the further SE, the drier. The city itself is on the drier side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 So are you only looking at NYC proper or the average of the area as whole? The further NW you travel, the wetter the models are, the further SE, the drier. The city itself is on the drier side. The printout qpf for Morristown is 1.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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