January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern

[Neblizzard]

Strong Nino very seldom have huge long stretches of artic air, 09-10 we did that all with normal temps. If we keep the GOA out of Alaska and help pump that PNA ridge I think we will be fine.

Keep the El Niño forcing near the dateline, maintain ridging in the west (keeping the GOA vortex at bay) and having an sustainable -AO/-NAO would be ideal. The recent Arctic attack was impressive enough given the strong El Niño in place. Going forward I'll take my chances with marginal temps if that's the case. Plenty of storminess looms in the STJ.

[SnowGoose69]

There is no doubt some members have that system on the 13th, at least a day before in the Gulf anyway.  There is a slightly improved signal on it from last night's ensembles if you ask me.

[wthrmn654]

There is no doubt some members have that system on the 13th, at least a day before in the Gulf anyway. There is a slightly improved signal on it from last night's ensembles if you ask me.

if anything that storm for the 13 may become the one later that week.

[PB GFI]

When we flip back to cold on the 11th the cold will have staying power and it's BN through the 23 rd.

The trough is re deepening between Day 13 and 15 in SE/MA which teleconnects to a deep trough in Europe and the GOA while ridging reconnects on the WC.

[MJO812]

The 12z EPS mean is not very good for the system around the 13th. Much like the GEFS mean, it's virtually non existent.

Regarding the system this weekend, it's quite wet, more so than the OP.

It redevelops in new england

[MJO812]

Strong signal on the eps for the 17th storm . Several coastals.

[Neblizzard]

When we flip back to cold on the 11th the cold will have staying power and it's BN through the 23 rd.

The trough is re deepening between Day 13 and 15 in SE/MA which teleconnects to a deep trough in Europe and the GOA while ridging reconnects on the WC.

Vast -AO/-NAO on the eps, it's a better run than yesterday for sure.

[Allsnow]

If you sent in an order for a day 11-15 EPS that flashes we have potential today's 12Z was it.

The only question is if the potential gets realized or not in a way that people will like. But the

very strong blocking with STJ disturbances cutting underneath have a potentially active look

if all the pieces fall into place.

Bluewave throwing big things around now you know it's serious

Great post

[Brian5671]

If you sent in an order for a day 11-15 EPS that flashes we have potential today's 12Z was it.

The only question is if the potential gets realized or not in a way that people will like. But the

very strong blocking with STJ disturbances cutting underneath have a potentially active look

if all the pieces fall into place.

I think our only concern could be too much blocking (can't believe I'm writing that after the lack of blocking these past few years)  Many from NYC north remember 09-10 all too well.  But outside of that, great pattern and I'll take my chances with too much versus the garbage we had in December.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I think our only concern could be too much blocking (can't believe I'm writing that after the lack of blocking these past few years) Many from NYC north remember 09-10 all too well. But outside of that, great pattern and I'll take my chances with too much versus the garbage we had in December.

Exactly in regards to December. I do think however "to much blocking" is kind of a made up idea based on the super suppression heart breaker of 2/5/10. I don't care how negative an Nao we have in a super Nino. With the Stj juiced as it will ever be anything less and we have warm air issues

[PB GFI]

If you sent in an order for a day 11-15 EPS that flashes we have potential today's 12Z was it.

The only question is if the potential gets realized or not in a way that people will like. But the

very strong blocking with STJ disturbances cutting underneath have a potentially active look

if all the pieces fall into place.

So the pieces we need are there . A deep trough in the means underneath , blocking over the top inside a cold regime.

Would not shock me if that was a 15 day period ( last 10 is the better chance ) of potential .

It there are not 2 chances in there , I would be dissapointed.

[WeatherFox]

We'll see how things work out since individual storm threats are fairly low skill that far out in time.

But at least the 500 mb pattern suggests there is potential there. Only time will tell if the potential gets

realized or not.

 

 

 

Yeah, you never really know what is going to happen until the Euro and EPS mean locks in on a given solution

from 120 hrs and under. But most people would rather take their chances on an EPS day 11-15 than what we

had in December. Would also be nice if the earlier clipper can at least lay down something measurable

above a trace around the 13th.

SouthCoastMA, on 06 Jan 2016 - 2:21 PM, said:

Could be, "everything is about timing" for a NYC snow storm as I am repeating from the main board thread.  For most of the time having cold air in place and a strong low moving up thru the 40/70 benchmark and viola!  Good to see your opportunities, I'm jealous and good luck!

 

[Neblizzard]

We'll see how things work out since individual storm threats are fairly low skill that far out in time.

But at least the 500 mb pattern suggests there is potential there. Only time will tell if the potential gets

realized or not

Yeah, you never really know what is going to happen until the Euro and EPS mean locks in on a given solution

from 120 hrs and under. But most people would rather take their chances on an EPS day 11-15 than what we

had in December. Would also be nice if the earlier clipper can at least lay down something measurable

above a trace around the 13th.

As we all know this winter was never going to be "wall to wall" cold. Climatology has proven that in strong ninos. The pattern going forward looks extremely promising if it's right. When we cash in or not remains to be seen. The teleconnectors are lining up favorably for an active pattern.

[pazzo83]

High of 41 today in the park.  Slightly AN.

[EasternLI]

If you sent in an order for a day 11-15 EPS that flashes we have potential today's 12Z was it.

The only question is if the potential gets realized or not in a way that people will like. But the

very strong blocking with STJ disturbances cutting underneath have a potentially active look

if all the pieces fall into place.

 

Great breakdown.

 

There are 2 things I like that I've noticed when comparing the past 3 EPS runs (towards the end of those runs). First, There has been a subtle trend of the GOA low backing off of AK as we move closer in time to said period. Which, hopefully, is a continued trend to help stave off the PAC flow. Second is the trend for higher heights in the arctic, as you mentioned, todays 12z was quite robust. It's encouraging to see these improvements and hopefully we can get something to deliver the goods.

[Morris]

High of 41 today in the park.  Slightly AN.

 

+0.5. 0 on the official report. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[IsentropicLift]

One heck of a storm on the 18z GFS for Saturday into Sunday. Pounding rain (1.50"-2.00") and surface winds > 30kts as far inland as E PA.

 

[PB GFI]

High of 41 today in the park.  Slightly AN.

A half a degree. 41/25 vs 38/27.

If you like that , you will love the next 4 .

[Neblizzard]

One heck of a storm on the 18z GFS for Saturday into Sunday. Pounding rain (1.50"-2.00") and surface winds > 30kts as far inland as E PA.

Huge trend towards the euro. I like active, let's see this deliver.

[Ericjcrash]

Huge trend towards the euro. I like active, let's see this deliver.

That's an absolute nightmare for ski resorts. A lot of whatever they were able to make will be washed away. At least they'll have the snowmakers running non stop afterwards. It has to be somewhat rare to have rain that far north into Canada in the middle of January.

[Juliancolton]

That's an absolute nightmare for ski resorts. A lot of whatever they were able to make will be washed away. At least they'll have the snowmakers running non stop afterwards. It has to be somewhat rare to have rain that far north into Canada in the middle of January.

 

Hopefully it washes away the glacial patches of sleet in my yard...

[winterwarlock]

Felt comfortable today in the afternoon....hit 42 here after an unbearable 7 which was lower than the previous night

[Allsnow]

EPS continues with the -nao after day 15 with a neutral epo and the GOA starts to drift west towards Siberia. Signals the weekend of the 17 for a storm chance. A ton of potential in this pattern...

[Neblizzard]

EPS continues with the -nao after day 15 with a neutral epo and the GOA starts to drift west towards Siberia. Signals the weekend of the 17 for a storm chance. A ton of potential in this pattern...

That's a robust -NAO that won't budge. I like the look out west, just when we thought the pacific jet would slam the west, there are still rising heights in the EPO region. It's a huge difference from yesterday for sure.

[PB GFI]

That's a robust -NAO that won't budge. I like the look out west, just when we thought the pacific jet would slam the west, there are still rising heights in the EPO region. It's a huge difference from yesterday for sure.

As a piece of the trough digs back in , in the L/R you reconnect the ridge.

It's a big pattern at 500. Now we just need the surface to respond .

I will not touch any threats outside 5 days , I don't want to get burned.

[Jason215]

Exactly in regards to December. I do think however "to much blocking" is kind of a made up idea based on the super suppression heart breaker of 2/5/10. I don't care how negative an Nao we have in a super Nino. With the Stj juiced as it will ever be anything less and we have warm air issues

So because of the super Nino and juicy sub tropical jet, we are essentially suppression proof?

I've been spoiled rotten the last 15 years.. I expect a blizzard every year now.. Where was all this snow when I was growing up..lol

-Jason

[Jefflaw77]

So because of the super Nino and juicy sub tropical jet, we are essentially suppression proof?

I've been spoiled rotten the last 15 years.. I expect a blizzard every year now.. Where was all this snow when I was growing up..lol

-Jason

I was saying the same thing today.. Between 1983 and 1996 we lived in the ultimate snow drought!

[Jason215]

I was saying the same thing today.. Between 1983 and 1996 we lived in the ultimate snow drought!

1983 I got jipped because it started on a Friday.. as school was letting out. We had school on Monday in NYC.. By 1996 I was already done with school. So I never had a snow day even once.. Lol. But I'm glad we are making up for lost time. Bring it!

-Jason

[Superstorm93]

Just a taste for now. 

 

So one of the top analogs for the tropical forcing/OLR anomalies in the Pacific I came up with based on the current trends and coupled with the EPS/GEFS forecasts was something that I wasn't going to bring up until now. 

 

The only reason that I'm going to mention it now is due to the support from the GFS/ECM/JMA/CMC that I have seen so far today. 

 

Back in late January 2010, we saw a tropical cyclone develop near the French Polynesian Islands in the south Pacific named Uli, which is an occurrence that has happened around six times in recorded history. The global models have been insisting that a tropical cyclone much like Uli, will develop over the next week due in part to massive amounts of 200hpa VPA which will greatly enhance convection and in turn lower shear.

 

Basically, the pattern observed in 2010 with Uli and the pattern that is ongoing (and forecast to occur) are very close to one another. You can see the significant area occur near the dateline with the piling up of OLR anomalies which helps to shift over the Aleutian troughing farther west.

 

Next off, there is a ribbon of enhanced convective activity originating near the equator which extends into into southern CONUS. This area is directly linked to the sub tropical jet and would provide a generous moisture boost to the pattern. 

 

 

 

 

Now when we screen this OLR events upper level pattern over the Northern Hemisphere and compare them to current model progs, things begin to line up. 

 

The most reliable global models continue to see that the Arctic Oscillation is forecast to crash into the -4 to -6 range over the next week. The last time we saw a similar crash with a positive ENSO phase was....you guessed it... the 1/29/10-2/8/10 period. The 500mb pattern with the European Ensembles is not a perfect match up in north central Canada as of 12z 1/6, but the GFS (which I will not be using in any major forecasts) and the Canadian Ens show a large block in that area, so I will leave everything the way they are for now. 

 

 

Keep an eye on the following things when comparing the 500mb patterns below. 

1) The very strong negative AO and NAO 

2) Negative height anomalies originating over the south west. This would increase the likelihood of systems that are enhanced by the STJ and are very moisture laden

3) The negative anomalies over the CONUS hooking up with negative anomalies over Europe. This is just a classic pattern for those along the east coast for colder/stormier weather.

4) Riding over Russia hooking up into the ridging over the poles. This would be able to supply more frequent cold shots with a heightened chance for prolonged cold over the central and eastern CONUS

5) Below average heights below the Aleutians  

 

I'm not quite done yet looking at everything but all I will conclude right now is that there are some impressive similarities. If things play out the way that they seem they could, then things are going to get very interesting. Again, this is not a forecast and I am not saying this is going to happen. I should have everything regarding research wrapped up this weekend. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm exhausted, so I apologize for any grammatical errors 

[psv88]

26...good RC right now.