Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 wow, -5.81 in 09-that's off the charts negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Confidence increasing for a solid 1-2" heavy rain event this weekend with gusty winds, especially along the immediate coast. If trends continue at 12z today I think a thread is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Confidence increasing for a solid 1-2" heavy rain event this weekend with gusty winds, especially along the immediate coast. If trends continue at 12z today I think a thread is warranted. Agreed. This is a strong El Niño and I like to see the STJ become more involved. Bring on the heavy rain, I'm fine with it, then we can focus on next week once the pattern flips to colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 KEWR got down to 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 wow, -5.81 in 09-that's off the charts negative. Check out the NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Check out the NAO Majorly improved today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Silliness. Are we out of the epic December torch pattern? Duh. I never said we weren't. Are we in a sustained long term cold and snow pattern? Nope All I am saying is you continue to argue for 98 in both the means and the similar pattern/result but have lost the guidance that you depended on . It's silly not to adjust . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Majorly improved today. Lets hope this pattern produces. We haven't seen a -NAO,+PNA and -AO in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Even Newark got down to 19 and JFK to 21. This city will never radiate. It's just not our way, Morris. It's just not our way. A balmy 30F in Central Park. Feels warm. Funny how quickly you can acclimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 most of the winter seasons that had a -4 ao at early or late had a major storm or zero degree temperatures...1998 was one exception with a -4 ao in January and no cold or snow...the lowest ao for the last six years...the last two didn't get below -3...... 2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09...11" snow 12/19-20....16 degrees 12/18 is the coldest for the month... 2010-11......-5.172.....12/18/10...20" of snow 12/26-27...23 max on 12/14.. 2011-12......-3.451.....01/28/12...4.3" of snow 1/21...Biggest of the season... 2012-13......-5.688.....03/20/13...3.0" of snow 3/18 and continued cold... 2013-14......-2.605.....01/27/14...5 degrees 1/22...11" of snow 1/21...21 max 1/28... 2014-15......-1.462.....03/19/15...4.5" of snow March 20th... ......................................................................................................................... Yeah, the near to record Kara block along with the MJO pulse finally ejected the PV out of the Arctic allowing the AO and NAO to drop. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 All I am saying is you continue to argue for 98 in both the means and the similar pattern/result but have lost the guidance that you depended on . It's silly not to adjust . i don't even understand this argument. This season is nothing like 98. Not at all. Bad analog. Is this really still a debate? Especially how the medium range is looking and even the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 i don't even understand this argument. This season is nothing like 98. Not at all. Bad analog. Is this really still a debate? Especially how the medium range is looking and even the long range. The biggest problem against the flip back to mild right now is that almost every single winter I know of where the GOA low was a problem in December and retrograded and then came back in late Jan/Feb it was a Nina or neutral. I do not know of any El Nino winters where that occurred, usually once it retrogrades its gone for good minus a brief cameo appearance for a 5-10 day stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 IMO, if the AO falls to -5.000 or below as suggested by the latest run of the GFS ensembles, that would be a powerful signal for a blocky February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 i don't even understand this argument. This season is nothing like 98. Not at all. Bad analog. Is this really still a debate? Especially how the medium range is looking and even the long range. Got me. It was a great event , but it's implications for this winter have been the subject of debate here for the last 6 months . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFSx has 61 for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 What did west Hampton get down to last night? Impressive was only able to get to 16℉ last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 What did west Hampton get down to last night? Impressive was only able to get to 16℉ last night 3. It's 35 as of 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 3. It's 35 as of 10 am. That's what I thought,thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 3. It's 35 as of 10 am. Wind is coming off a much warmer ocean now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFSx has 61 for Sunday. Anytime a storm cuts to the west and we rain you're going to torch briefly. It'll affect our monthly totals especially if we get one of those false midnight highs before the cold air comes back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 IMO, if the AO falls to -5.000 or below as suggested by the latest run of the GFS ensembles, that would be a powerful signal for a blocky February. Very extreme behavior for the AO to drop from +4.503 on December 22nd to a -4 or -5 range low in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wind is coming off a much warmer ocean now. Except only a west wind, which would be more of a land breeze, though long island isn't shaped squarely,so there may be some wind on ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Except only a west wind, which would be more of a land breeze, though long island isn't shaped squarely,so there may be some wind on ocean I see WSW in their latest ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Anytime a storm cuts to the west and we rain you're going to torch briefly. It'll affect our monthly totals especially if we get one of those false midnight highs before the cold air comes back It's a 2 day torch with record temps possible. Saturday is getting warmer now too and models have NYC approaching 50 degrees and then Sunday models are getting warmer and have NYC up to 61 degrees with even warmer temps in CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 January 1966 [strong nino] featured the AO bottoming out around -5 standard deviations, and January 1958 [strong nino] reached a minimum of around -4 SD. Both were good analogs for this winter (1958 much more so than 1966). If the pattern progresses as expected, we will maintain high latitude blocking in the means for the remainder of winter. el nino winters ao minimum date and sensible weather... season.......ao min.....date..... 1951-52......-3.805.....3/4/1952....4" snow 3/2... 1952-53......-3.766.....12/27/52....12 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season...4" snow 12/31... 1953-54......-3.495.....1/30/54......cold continues...Cold snowy January... 1957-58......-4.030.....3/11/58......snow storms 3/14 and 3/21... 1958-59......-4.026.....1/7/59........cold continues... 1963-64......-4.470.....12/20/63....1.4" 12/18...6.6" 12/23-24...11 degrees 12/20 coldest for that month...January Blizzard... 1965-66......-5.130.....1/28/66......8 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season 1/28...storm 7" on 1/30... 1968-69......-5.282.....2/13/69......17 degrees 2/17 is the coldest temp for the month...15" of snow 2/9-10.... 1969-70......-6.365.....3/5/70........20 degrees 3/10 coldest temp for the month...4" of snow 3/29... 1972-73......-2.044.....12/17/72....24 degrees max 12/17... 1976-77......-7.433.....1/15/77......-2 degrees on the 17th is the coldest temp of the winter...5" snow 1/14-15... 1977-78......-5.291.....2/5/78........10 degrees 2/5 is the coldest temperature of the season...18" snow 2/6-7... 1979-80......-3.705.....1/24/80......continued cold and dry...longest stretch of cold that winter... 1982-83......-3.410.....2/6/83........4" of snow 2/6 and 18" 2/11-12... 1986-87......-3.507.....3/9/87........2" snow 3/12...Near record cold 3/10... 1987-88......-2.314.....2/28/88......0.6" 2/27 is the last measurable snow...Thawing after... 1991-92......-2.597.....12/4/91.....0.7" 12/5...benign after that... 1992-93......-2.228.....3/2/93.......Super storm 3/13...Near record cold followed... 1994-95......-3.116.....3/9/95.......20 degrees 3/10 is the coldest temp for the month.... 1997-98......-4.269.....1/10/98.....14 degrees New Years day...Coldest of the winter... 2002-03......-3.575.....1/22/03......7 degrees 1/24 is the coldest for the winter... 2004-05......-4.337.....2/26/05......6" of snow 2/25 and 8" 2/29... 2006-07......-2.184.....2/4/07........8 degrees 2/5 is the coldest for the winter... 2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09...11" snow 12/19-20....16 degrees 12/18 is the coldest for the month... 2014-15......-1.462.....03/19/15...4.5" of snow March 20th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It's a 2 day torch with record temps possible. Saturday is getting warmer now too and models have NYC approaching 50 degrees and then Sunday models are getting warmer and have NYC up to 61 degrees with even warmer temps in CNJ. NYC's record high for Sunday is 60°, which was set in 1876. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It's a 2 day torch with record temps possible. Saturday is getting warmer now too and models have NYC approaching 50 degrees and then Sunday models are getting warmer and have NYC up to 61 degrees with even warmer temps in CNJ. Actually the warm up is for 3 days . But transient was expected. He is correct , if you pull the trough axis W you torch. There r 2 very warm days followed by 8 days of BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I see WSW in their latest ob. Ah,I didn't look at there report, was going off my station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Back above freezing in the park! Here we go!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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