PB GFI Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 better...would like more ridging in ak. Sorry to get back so late , I got busy after we crashed here. There are 2 things I like on here , one the constant drum beat of keeping that " Neg S of the Aleutians" I know you like that term , jk. Secondly that STJ is in the SE not the SW so the trough in the east . I don't mind a pos NAO with the PNA that pos I will not have to worry about suppression . That's a good pattern for you slp will drive right at u . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=01 Maybe a lucky snowstorm with the projected typical west based El Nino precip. setup. This seems better for us, if I am reading it correctly. Much more statistical analysis here I believe. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/cca.php?lead=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=01 Maybe a lucky snowstorm with the projected typical west based El Nino precip. setup. Maybe .... Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/ecca.php?lead=01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Looks like we will be pretty chilly for a few days starting this weekend into early next week...then the warmth rolls over the ridge and we warm up between the 5-8th with possibility of a cutter....after 9th the gefs and eps all scream for a awesome looking pattern and storm chance with blocking and the Pv over Hudson Bay. Granted we could swing and miss in that timeframe if the base of the trough is to Far East...would be congrats ATL... That being said it looks like we will finally have a decent pattern to work with mid month and a far cry from the torch of December. We are also entering the coldest climo part of our winter, we can still get winter events with slightly above avg temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 CPC doesn't give anyone here a good pattern just sayin http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ Current-- Day 8-14 temp prog http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Yes 1 thru 6 are BN. 7 thru 11 are AN . A piece of the ridge splits and charges east. It's out of here in 4 days the remaining piece retrogrades back into WC and sets the stage for after day 12 and 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Maybe .... Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/ecca.php?lead=01 To be clear though, that map is showing slightly above with high skill for the tri-state area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 To be clear though, that map is showing slightly above with high skill for the tri-state area. Does that justify a New Pattern or flip for us? I'm not so sure bout that fluctuations yes--- but overall, that guidance keeps us above normal and it needs to be included in the discussion ESRL look in http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_nhbg_animation.html http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 And does that justify a New Pattern or flip for us.....I not so sure bout that fluctuations yes--- but overall that guidance keeps us above normal ESRL look in http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_nhbg_animation.html Just because it's not a pattern that will produce record cold, that doesn't mean that it's not a new pattern. It clearly is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Just because it's not a pattern that will produce record cold, that doesn't mean that it's not a new pattern. It clearly is. Well... the way I read the guidance It is above normal at 39N and above from coast to coast with a small nose of below in the Mid-Atlantic we shall see Any way you slice it... modified PAC air flow will be in the mix http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Well... the way I read the guidance It is above normal at 39N and above from coast to coast with a small nose of below in the Mid-Atlantic we shall see Any way you slice it... modified PAC air flow will be in the mix http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1 Thats always the concern for a el nino year the pac jet can come back on a dime. Looks like we might get a shot at a winter storm mid month before then its a bit below normal this weekend and monday, then a warm up and perhaps a cutter to end the week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Well... the way I read the guidance It is above normal at 39N and above from coast to coast with a small nose of below in the Mid-Atlantic we shall see Any way you slice it... modified PAC air flow will be in the mix http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1 The way I read it is that NYC is AN by 10% of a standard deviation, with statistically significant skill. So a little less than 0.5°F above average. That isn't even remotely close to what December has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Worth watching. Need to get some better timing. Need that that trof to swing around more quickly and hope the coastal low doesn't go OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Worth watching. Need to get some better timing. Need that that trof to swing around more quickly and hope the coastal low doesn't go OTS. 228hrs lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 228hrs lol? Multiple runs have shown coastal low development during that time frame. The last event was picked up by this point. Looking ahead, it's the only possible event to track right now. I find the focus on the "pattern change" here to be bit overdone. Looking for a little diversity here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Every model shows that storm chance on or near the 11th, including ensemble guidance. Regardless of how far out, it fits the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Near to record breaking ridge over the Kara to build across the pole and finally dislodge the PV from the Arctic. It will link up with the ridge near Alaska and drop the AO and EPO into negative territory . It may take until day 11-15 for changes in our sensible weather to occur as the ensembles show an Eastern trough to replace the long duration ridge. +600 gpm is as extreme as 500 mb height anomalies get for that part of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The EPS and gefs definitely not as great of a look as before...more Pac flow past day 10 with a hint of a se ridge...it's not a torch but more of a okay airmass and nothing cold...perhaps they where rushing the pattern change a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The EPS and gefs definitely not as great of a look as before...more Pac flow past day 10 with a hint of a se ridge...it's not a torch but more of a okay airmass and nothing cold...perhaps they where rushing the pattern change a few days ago It's normal for models to fluctuate. The bottom line is there are major changes going on in the arctic regions so once that happens, the models will get a better handle on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The EPS and gefs definitely not as great of a look as before...more Pac flow past day 10 with a hint of a se ridge...it's not a torch but more of a okay airmass and nothing cold...perhaps they where rushing the pattern change a few days ago That's why I think snow chances are further away than some think but it will definitely get colder at least. 06z gfs makes Jan 8th more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 6z GFS goes below freezing every day January 2-9. I only looked to 240 hours. Next week Tuesday and Wednesday are cold and below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 That's why I think snow chances are further away than some think but it will definitely get colder at least. 06z gfs makes Jan 8th more interesting.The para euro control delivered the goods for this system overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 NAO got better today. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The only cold window I can see now is Jan. 12-20. If it holds and turns out to be our only extended bout with below normal temperatures this winter AND we can get a big blizzard to boot, my Ten Day Winter theory will have come and gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 With regard to January, my thinking remains that the current pattern evolution now underway will yield a 1-2 week transitional period. That period will see some colder than normal days (after a December with none) and perhaps a day or two with much above normal readings, too. Afterward, especially if blocking is sustained as indicated on the guidance, the potential for increasing cold shots with greater geographic coverage exists. The second half of January would wind up colder relative to normal than the first half of January in much of the CONUS and parts of Canada. If one looks at the 8-day GFS ensemble objective analogs centered on January 7, one finds among the mix: 1/17/1978, 1/20/1983, 1/9/1985, and 12/26/2009. In the 1978 case, a long-duration period of blocking had started. In the 1983 case, transient blocking had been occurring and a long-period of blocking would start 9 days later. In the 1985 and 2009 cases, long-duration blocking was underway. So, at this time, I have fairly good confidence in my thoughts for the second half of January beyond the transitional period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I should note too that there are improvements over Hudson Bay by the start of February in the 500mb heights. We could get some cold air from our more traditional locations, and not have to rely upon lower heights in the southerly jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Unfortunately the cold does not result in snow for us. Only to the west and north and northeast. GFS>>> 00Z just a trace through the 14th. , and none on the 06Z Update 12Z back to just a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Unfortunately the cold does not result in snow for us. Only to the west and north and northeast. GFS>>> 00Z just a trace through the 14th. , and none on the 06Z And it's going to change a million times .You know that the models struggle during pattern changes. JB also just mentioned about this on his video this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 some of our best blizzards and big storms come in Feb and March. Patience people, patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 No one talked snow. Only 2 weeks ago the argument was pattern change. The return to seaaonal Jan temps week 1 in Jan , a slight warm up for 4 days which will out do the original idea ( but + 5 vs +2 , not plus 15.Then the trough is in the SE. Some of you were adamant that the warm Dec would roll right through the end of the season and now your last hope is a transient 4 day ridge that runs off the board and then we get colder. You guys completely whiffed on the 1st 6 days I don't get the credibility grab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Well snowstorms here usually do not bring the cold air with them. Generally two or three 'round the clock' sub-freezing days precede them and follow them. A high to the north to trap the cold air and a -NAO or pseudo 50 50 low from a prior miss, will slow things down and do the trick. So I am searching for a cluster of some sub-32 daily highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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