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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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better...would like more ridging in ak.

Sorry to get back so late , I got busy after we crashed here.

There are 2 things I like on here , one the constant drum beat of keeping that " Neg S of the Aleutians" I know you like that term , jk.

Secondly that STJ is in the SE not the SW so the trough in the east .

I don't mind a pos NAO with the PNA that pos I will not have to worry about suppression .

That's a good pattern for you slp will drive right at u .

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=01

 

Maybe a lucky snowstorm with the projected typical west based El Nino precip. setup.

 

This seems better for us, if I am reading it correctly.  Much more statistical analysis here I believe.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/cca.php?lead=1

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Looks like we will be pretty chilly for a few days starting this weekend into early next week...then the warmth rolls over the ridge and we warm up between the 5-8th with possibility of a cutter....after 9th the gefs and eps all scream for a awesome looking pattern and storm chance with blocking and the Pv over Hudson Bay. Granted we could swing and miss in that timeframe if the base of the trough is to Far East...would be congrats ATL...

That being said it looks like we will finally have a decent pattern to work with mid month and a far cry from the torch of December. We are also entering the coldest climo part of our winter, we can still get winter events with slightly above avg temps

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CPC doesn't give anyone here a good pattern   

 

just sayin 

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/

 

Current-- Day  8-14  temp prog

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

WK34temp.gif

WK34prcp.gif

Yes 1 thru 6 are BN. 7 thru 11 are AN . A piece of the ridge splits and charges east. It's out of here in 4 days the remaining piece retrogrades back into WC and sets the stage for after day 12 and 13.

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To be clear though, that map is showing slightly above with high skill for the tri-state area.

Does that justify a New Pattern or flip for us?   I'm not so sure bout that

 

fluctuations yes--- but overall, that guidance keeps us above normal 

and it needs to be included in the discussion

 

ESRL look in

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_nhbg_animation.html

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html

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And does that justify a New Pattern or flip for us.....I not so sure bout that

fluctuations yes--- but overall that guidance keeps us above normal

ESRL look in

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_nhbg_animation.html

Just because it's not a pattern that will produce record cold, that doesn't mean that it's not a new pattern. It clearly is.
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Just because it's not a pattern that will produce record cold, that doesn't mean that it's not a new pattern. It clearly is.

Well... the way I read the guidance

It is above normal at 39N and above from coast to coast 

with  a small nose of below in the Mid-Atlantic

 

we shall see

 

Any way you slice it...

modified PAC air flow will be in the mix  

 

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1

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Well... the way I read the guidance

It is above normal at 39N and above from coast to coast 

with  a small nose of below in the Mid-Atlantic

 

we shall see

 

Any way you slice it...

modified PAC air flow will be in the mix  

 

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1

 

Thats always the concern for a el nino year  the pac jet can come back on a dime. Looks like we might get a shot at a winter storm mid month before then its a bit below normal this weekend and monday, then a warm up and perhaps a cutter to end the week...

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Well... the way I read the guidance

It is above normal at 39N and above from coast to coast

with a small nose of below in the Mid-Atlantic

we shall see

Any way you slice it...

modified PAC air flow will be in the mix

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1

The way I read it is that NYC is AN by 10% of a standard deviation, with statistically significant skill. So a little less than 0.5°F above average. That isn't even remotely close to what December has been.

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Near to record breaking ridge over the Kara to build across the pole and finally dislodge

the PV from the Arctic. It will link up with the ridge near Alaska and drop the AO

and EPO into negative territory . It may take until day 11-15 for changes

in our sensible weather to occur as the ensembles show an Eastern trough to

replace the long duration ridge. 

 

+600 gpm is as extreme as 500 mb height anomalies get for that part of the world.

 

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The EPS and gefs definitely not as great of a look as before...more Pac flow past day 10 with a hint of a se ridge...it's not a torch but more of a okay airmass and nothing cold...perhaps they where rushing the pattern change a few days ago

It's normal for models to fluctuate. The bottom line is there are major changes going on in the arctic regions so once that happens, the models will get a better handle on the pattern.

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The EPS and gefs definitely not as great of a look as before...more Pac flow past day 10 with a hint of a se ridge...it's not a torch but more of a okay airmass and nothing cold...perhaps they where rushing the pattern change a few days ago

That's why I think snow chances are further away than some think but it will definitely get colder at least. 06z gfs makes Jan 8th more interesting.

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The only cold window I can see now is Jan. 12-20.    If it holds and turns out to be our only extended bout with below normal temperatures this winter AND we can get a big blizzard to boot, my Ten Day Winter theory will have come and gone.

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With regard to January, my thinking remains that the current pattern evolution now underway will yield a 1-2 week transitional period. That period will see some colder than normal days (after a December with none) and perhaps a day or two with much above normal readings, too.

 

Afterward, especially if blocking is sustained as indicated on the guidance, the potential for increasing cold shots with greater geographic coverage exists. The second half of January would wind up colder relative to normal than the first half of January in much of the CONUS and parts of Canada.

 

If one looks at the 8-day GFS ensemble objective analogs centered on January 7, one finds among the mix: 1/17/1978, 1/20/1983, 1/9/1985, and 12/26/2009. In the 1978 case, a long-duration period of blocking had started. In the 1983 case, transient blocking had been occurring and a long-period of blocking would start 9 days later. In the 1985 and 2009 cases, long-duration blocking was underway. So, at this time, I have fairly good confidence in my thoughts for the second half of January beyond the transitional period.

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Unfortunately the cold does not result in snow for us.   Only to the west and north and northeast. 

GFS>>>   00Z just a trace through the 14th. ,  and none on the 06Z

And it's going to change a million times .You know that the models struggle during pattern changes. JB also just mentioned about this on his video this morning.

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No one talked snow. Only 2 weeks ago the argument was pattern change. The return to seaaonal Jan temps week 1 in Jan , a slight warm up for 4 days which will out do the original idea ( but + 5 vs +2 , not plus 15.Then the trough is in the SE.

Some of you were adamant that the warm Dec would roll right through the end of the season and now your last hope is a transient 4 day ridge that runs off the board and then we get colder.

You guys completely whiffed on the 1st 6 days I don't get the credibility grab.

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Well snowstorms here usually do not bring the cold air with them.    Generally two or three 'round the clock' sub-freezing days precede them and follow them.  A high to the north to trap the cold air and a -NAO or pseudo 50 50 low from a prior miss, will slow things down and do the trick.  So I am searching for a cluster of some sub-32 daily highs.

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