LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Crazy at mY house. New tripod with 5 foot pole with whole station at top with a fars. No wind,temps are about 26.0℉ Metal probe sensor ground level, 16.0℉ About 15 feet different in height. Nice you just answered the question about how shallow the cold is at west Hampton. Obviously very very very shallow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Park up to 29, reducing the daily departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Park up to 29, reducing the daily departure.29 plus 11 is 40. The mean is 20. Which is still - 13 The N mean is 33. The 13.5 would not have been seen in the departure until it got adjusted at months end. Don't worry. I think the CFS plus 8 and the calls of plus 4 don't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Park up to 29, reducing the daily departure. Using 29° as the day's high temperature, the month-to-date departure is 1.4° below normal. It will go positive in coming days, but it won't become so positive that a sustained period of cold couldn't erase the positive departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Using 29° as the day's high temperature, the month-to-date departure is 1.4° below normal. It will go positive in coming days, but it won't become so positive that a sustained period of cold couldn't erase the positive departures.Agree Don , after 6 you're B. After 10 you're A. After 20 you're Back B. Just not sure if those back 10 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 West Hampton down 7℉ Temps crawling down finally here I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 13/6 here. Everything is frozen solid after 2 days in the freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Real- time 500mb Pattern OBS LOOP http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/rapmeso/index.php?type=US-wvvor-25 "Understanding current conditions is the starting point, and the most critical part, of any weather forecast." - CMC- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Agree Don , after 6 you're B. After 10 you're A. After 20 you're Back B. Just not sure if those back 10 . I'm not very certain about the final 7-10 days of the month. In AmWx's monthly guesses, I hedged climo for that timeframe leading to only a very small negative departure for NYC for the month. If blocking is sustained, then I think a colder outcome will prevail, even if there is a temporary relaxation of the pattern. Right now, if it is to be sustained, blocking will probably depend much more on the troposphere than the stratosphere for the time being. Despite the forecast development of another large wave impact in the near-term, even as the geopotential amplitude of that wave is more impressive than the most recent one, the temperature amplitude is forecast to be less impressive. Hence, unless things change, I don't see much change overall in stratospheric conditions making it more likely than not that even as the polar vortex might remain split at 500 mb (and that isn't assured), the stratospheric polar vortex will probably remain intact beyond mid-month and perhaps longer. The ECMWF's forecast temperature anomalies for 10 hPa and 30 hPa seem to bear out a generally colder than normal stratosphere. The usual caveats about the limited understanding of complex stratosphere-troposphere interactions applies, as always, so anything concerning the stratosphere is not a high confidence proposition in the extended range. An SSW event would be a wildcard. However, such events can't be forecast reliably from more than a few days out, so I make no assumptions on that front. Nothing is shown on the guidance right now. Moreover, numerous winters experience none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 14. Won't get close to last nights 4, but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Talk about a crazy variability tonight! .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. ABSENT ANY FORCING STILL EXPECT A CLEAR SKY OVER THE REGION. VERY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...SO EXPECT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF FASTER THAN EXPECTED OVER NORMAL COLD SPOTS...AND NOT QUITE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST OVER URBAN AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE...LOWERING OVER COLD SPOTS AND RAISING SLIGHTLY OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM 10-20 ACROSS COASTAL/URBAN AREAS - A TAD WARMER IN NYC PROPER AND UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES COLDER IN THE PINE BARRENS - AND MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Park still at 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Park still at 28. Wind has basically died down here, and when there is a breeze, it's out of the WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Record high Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Park still at 28. Park down to 25 - 1.2 for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Temp down to 16 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Agreed next week is below normal but not close to today Yeah, you can see that the PV on the more recent EPS runs isn't forecast to drop as far SE as it was a few days ago. It may be related to the storm over the weekend cutting further west than the hugger track the models were showing a few days ago. So the PV doesn't get pulled as far SE. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Even Newark got down to 19 and JFK to 21. This city will never radiate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Yeah, you can see that the PV on the more recent EPS runs isn't forecast to drop as far SE as it was a few days ago. It may be related to the storm over the weekend cutting further west than the hugger track the models were showing a few days ago. So the PV doesn't get pulled as far SE. New run ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png Old run OLD.png Wouldn't that help our storm chances? As there is less of a chance for suppression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wouldn't that help our storm chances? As there is less of a chance for suppression? It looks like the stronger storm further west actually pumps the downstream -AO/-NAO ridge more than the old storm track. So the models are going deeper with the-AO/-NAO than just a few days ago. It may allow a clipper to track closer to our region next week instead of getting suppressed to our south . After that, we'll have to see how far north the STJ disturbances get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Running out of 1998 allies ? Even the once Jan and Feb torched CFS is starting to see " something" other than a torch in the L/R . Gone is the ridge for week 4 . So it now sees a trough in East week 2 and week 3 ( Which is in line with the Euro ) and one in the SE in week 4 . ( Which is in line with the weeklies ) . Also it is now cooling in Feb . Here are the average of it`s last 30 day runs vs today`s . Very NON 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 We can post what seasonal models show until there's a blue moon and pigs are flying. What matters is real time verification. Forecasts are not verified by posting seasonal, monthly or weekly model runs that show your forecast. We will see very soon who's right and who's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 FEB 1- 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 We can post what seasonal models show until there's a blue moon and pigs are flying. What matters is real time verification. Forecasts are not verified by posting seasonal, monthly or weekly model runs that show your forecast. We will see very soon who's right and who's wrong More time ? Verifications since July , Basin wide Nino . You opposed and argued east based NINO all summer . Record R 4 . You said 1.2 would boil - EPO . J - M You said that warm water would get erased . D/L forcing . J-M You said it would not matter , the NINO would overwhelm AN Nov/Dec - I AM SURE YOU LOVED THIS - BECAUSE IT WAS A WARM FORECAST Verifications since mid/late Dec . Pattern flip Jan 1 You said no pattern flip until Feb Jan 1 - 6 BN . Not sure what your opinion was here , but I guess I know Next calls - Next 3 days are AN followed by BN Jan 11 - 18 . Feb will go the way of the Euro seasonal , cough cough I mean the CFS . vs East based and 1998 winter time snowless/torch . I just don`t get arguing in the face of all the guidance . It does not make any sense . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 We can post what seasonal models show until there's a blue moon and pigs are flying. What matters is real time verification. Forecasts are not verified by posting seasonal, monthly or weekly model runs that show your forecast. We will see very soon who's right and who's wrongWe already beat the lowest winter temp during a super Nino by a good amount. Run of the mill super Nino this is not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/684498478584721408?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Models moving to one of the strongest -AO drops of the last few years. If it can drop to -4.000 or lower, then this would be the first time since March 2013. October 2013 got really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Models moving to one of the strongest -AO drops of the last few years. If it can drop to -4.000 or lower, then this would be the first time since March 2013. October 2013 got really close. ao.sprd2.jpg B.jpg eps_ao_00.png most of the winter seasons that had a -4 ao at early or late had a major storm or zero degree temperatures...1998 was one exception with a -4 ao in January and no cold or snow...the lowest ao for the last six years...the last two didn't get below -3...... 2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09...11" snow 12/19-20....16 degrees 12/18 is the coldest for the month... 2010-11......-5.172.....12/18/10...20" of snow 12/26-27...23 max on 12/14.. 2011-12......-3.451.....01/28/12...4.3" of snow 1/21...Biggest of the season... 2012-13......-5.688.....03/20/13...3.0" of snow 3/18 and continued cold... 2013-14......-2.605.....01/27/14...5 degrees 1/22...11" of snow 1/21...21 max 1/28... 2014-15......-1.462.....03/19/15...4.5" of snow March 20th... ......................................................................................................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 January 1966 [strong nino] featured the AO bottoming out around -5 standard deviations, and January 1958 [strong nino] reached a minimum of around -4 SD. Both were good analogs for this winter (1958 much more so than 1966). If the pattern progresses as expected, we will maintain high latitude blocking in the means for the remainder of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 More time ? Verifications since July , Basin wide Nino . You opposed and argued east based NINO all summer . Record R 4 . You said 1.2 would boil - EPO . J - M You said that warm water would get erased . D/L forcing . J-M You said it would not matter , the NINO would overwhelm AN Nov/Dec - I AM SURE YOU LOVED THIS - BECAUSE IT WAS A WARM FORECAST Verifications since mid/late Dec . Pattern flip Jan 1 You said no pattern flip until Feb Jan 1 - 6 BN . Not sure what your opinion was here , but I guess I know Next calls - Next 3 days are AN followed by BN Jan 11 - 18 . Feb will go the way of the Euro seasonal , cough cough I mean the CFS . vs East based and 1998 winter time snowless/torch . I just don`t get arguing in the face of all the guidance . It does not make any sense . Silliness. Are we out of the epic December torch pattern? Duh. I never said we weren't. Are we in a sustained long term cold and snow pattern? Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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