pazzo83 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Pretty impressive cold shot, especially considering there isn't snow pack within hundreds of miles of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 knyc was only 15f away from the record low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 1/18/15 I think is the date you are referring to. I had .89" and my weather log states "AM freezing rain, change to rain, then back to freezing rain, .50 ice on the driveway" That day sucked. I had to take out the heat gun because my car doors froze shut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 That day sucked. I had to take out the heat gun because my car doors froze shut. Kinda freaky, possible storm this year around same date. What are the odds lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 That day sucked. I had to take out the heat gun because my car doors froze shut.We had to use pick axes to get the ice up in the condos we service. That wasnt fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 I got down to 11 last night. Up to 24 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Park at 25 at 1 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Got down to 11 here last night and it was cold enough to freeze the local pond. The ice on my pond is 2.3" thick after the last couple days. Just a hair thicker and I'd feel comfortable venturing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 the ao nao forecasts are still encouraging...a few members plunge off the chart while others go positive...the arctic oscillation is below -2 and could get to -3 on this scale...not bad after being quite positive for some time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The 12z ECMWF has quite the storm for Saturday into Sunday. Low pressure tracks just inland. 2-3" of rain and 40+kt winds along the coast with 25-30kt winds inland. Surface temps well into the middle 50's on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Outside of tomorrow, 12Z GFS has no clear cut below normal days throughout its 16 day run. If this is correct, by the end of the period we will have just about 5 BN days out of a total 50-day period. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016010512&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Outside of tomorrow, 12Z GFS has no clear cut below normal days throughout its 16 day run. If this is correct, by the end of the period we will have just about 5 BN days out of a total 50-day period. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016010512&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=228 You posted 2 weeks ago that the 1st 7 days would be plus 8 .I mean do you ever go back and read what you post ? 1 thru 6 are BN, thanks. Day 7 will b AN . Probably a 6 degree bust inside 2 weeks. Very bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Outside of tomorrow, 12Z GFS has no clear cut below normal days throughout its 16 day run. If this is correct, by the end of the period we will have just about 5 BN days out of a total 50-day period. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016010512&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=228 And it won't be correct. Bank on it. You keep locking into your one solution, basing it as fact. We will be BN for at least 5 days out of 9 days from the 11th on. I predict by the 19th we will be -1 for the month. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 This is a must read from CPC (for week 2, 8-14 day period): 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 13 - 19 2016DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECASTDOMAIN IS PREDICTED TO DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT, AND (IN MOST CASES) PROGRESSEASTWARD. THIS PROGRESSION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PHASE OFTHE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICALPACIFIC. THE UNUSUALLY MILD DECEMBER EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERNCONUS HAS PASSED, WITH THE NEXT FEW WEEKS EXPECTED TO FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLYCOLDER AIR PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TODAY'S WEEK-2 AUTOMATIC BLENDEDTEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO FAST IN REMOVING THE LARGE AREA OFANTICIPATED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS FROMTHE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS IS THOUGHT TO BE RELATED TO INPUT TOOLS WHICH RELYMORE HEAVILY ON CALIBRATION TECHNIQUES, WHICH CONSIDER OBSERVED TEMPERATURESFROM THE PREVIOUS 45 DAYS. MOST OF THE PAST 45 DAYS INCLUDES THE HIGHLYANOMALOUS WARMTH OF DECEMBER, PROVIDING A RECENT WARM BIAS IN CALIBRATIONTOOLS. SUCH A RAPID REMOVAL OF THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WAS DISCOUNTED.AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A 500-HPA RIDGE ANDABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, INCREASED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THESOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD MOTION OF THE PREDICTEDAREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A DEAMPLIFYING HEIGHT PATTERN AT HIGHLATITUDES FAVORS MORE SEASONABLE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ANDCENTRAL ALASKA, WITH RESIDUAL WARMTH ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATIONOUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE PRIMARYDIFFERENCE BEING A PREDICTED EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE SOUTHERN JET STREAMACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. CURRENTLY, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS INCREASEDSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST REGIONS, CONTINUINGOUT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGEIN THE STORM TRACK TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE (AND AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OFFREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION) TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 This is a must read from CPC (for week 2, 8-14 day period): 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 13 - 19 2016 DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN IS PREDICTED TO DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT, AND (IN MOST CASES) PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS PROGRESSION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC. THE UNUSUALLY MILD DECEMBER EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS HAS PASSED, WITH THE NEXT FEW WEEKS EXPECTED TO FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TODAY'S WEEK-2 AUTOMATIC BLENDED TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO FAST IN REMOVING THE LARGE AREA OF ANTICIPATED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS IS THOUGHT TO BE RELATED TO INPUT TOOLS WHICH RELY MORE HEAVILY ON CALIBRATION TECHNIQUES, WHICH CONSIDER OBSERVED TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS 45 DAYS. MOST OF THE PAST 45 DAYS INCLUDES THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARMTH OF DECEMBER, PROVIDING A RECENT WARM BIAS IN CALIBRATION TOOLS. SUCH A RAPID REMOVAL OF THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WAS DISCOUNTED. AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A 500-HPA RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, INCREASED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD MOTION OF THE PREDICTED AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A DEAMPLIFYING HEIGHT PATTERN AT HIGH LATITUDES FAVORS MORE SEASONABLE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA, WITH RESIDUAL WARMTH ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BEING A PREDICTED EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. CURRENTLY, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST REGIONS, CONTINUING OUT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE STORM TRACK TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE (AND AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION) TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. D 8 -14 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Look at the CFS has for week 2 and 3 . Looks like the Euro weeklies . Agrees with the Euro which aslo shows a 10 to 14 day period of BN . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 PB, thanks. How is the new EPS looking for today? What's the departure from normal between 10-24? -5 or -10* F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 PB, thanks. How is the new EPS looking for today? What's the departure from normal between 10-24? -5 or -10* F? Probably a 7 day + period of BN ( will depend on/if snow cover ) after a quick 3 day AN regime comes in and goes out . By D 15 the trough is deepening again in the SE , there is a trough in the GAO and one in Europe . That should get reflected deeper D 15 as the euro washes the troughs out downstream . That takes you to the 20th . I want to see what that looks like Thrs vs the weeklies to see if they match up before I take a stab on the last 10 Here is the in and out ridge , then the start of the decline once again , and this time it`s around for 7 plus days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 While the next cold shot looks to hold on for longer than this one, the Euro keeps the 11 degree low in NYC as the coldest of the month. This one had a ideal northerly cold air drain down the Hudson Valley. The next cool down has more of a westerly to northwesterly flow which moderates crossing the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 the 11 degrees this morning beats 1997-98's 14 and 1982-83's 12 for the winter minimum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 what a killer for now-cold then with a spike to 60 with a rainstorm and then back into the freezer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 what a killer for now-cold then with a spike to 60 with a rainstorm and then back into the freezer....Worst possible scenario for people who work out side.... freeze, soaked and freeze. And even more so for those who earn money from snow removal.The amazingly awful thing about this next storm is it is going to soak ski country on a top mid weekend winter. All those gains down the tubes again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I know it isn't y'all's favorite model, but the GEM has been a little more consistent than the GFS for this weekend's setup. The highlight is the nor'easter on 1/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 While the next cold shot looks to hold on for longer than this one, the Euro keeps the 11 degree low in NYC as the coldest of the month. This one had a ideal northerly cold air drain down the Hudson Valley. The next cool down has more of a westerly to northwesterly flow which moderates crossing the Great Lakes. KNYC_2016010512_dx_240.png Agreed next week is below normal but not close to today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Im still kind of new so I have this newb question. Why is having higher heights over Alaska important if you want cold/snow in the east? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Im still kind of new so I have this newb question. Why is having higher heights over Alaska important if you want cold/snow in the east? Thanks in advance. Higher Heights over Alaska are usually associated with the negative phase of the EPO, it helps establish cross polar flow which allows arctic air to drive south into the US. You want the flow to be merdional as opposed to off the pacific. Having a GOA vortex usually allows pacific air to flood the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Westhampton is down to 10 already. 3 degrees lower than the morning low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Currently 20.8 °F. As of 8 PM. Thinking it may get down to the lower teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 No wind = no major temp drops in the city. Park at 28F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Crazy at mY house. New tripod with 5 foot pole with whole station at top with a fars. No wind,temps are about 26.0℉ Metal probe sensor ground level, 16.0℉ About 15 feet different in height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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