January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern

[pazzo83]

Pretty impressive cold shot, especially considering there isn't snow pack within hundreds of miles of NYC.

[forkyfork]

knyc was only 15f away from the record low!

[gravitylover]

1/18/15 I think is the date you are referring to.  I had .89" and my weather log states "AM freezing rain, change to rain, then back to freezing rain, .50 ice on the driveway"

 

That day sucked.  I had to take out the heat gun because my car doors froze shut.

[wthrmn654]

That day sucked.  I had to take out the heat gun because my car doors froze shut.

Kinda freaky, possible storm this year around same date. What are the odds lol

[mriceyman]

That day sucked. I had to take out the heat gun because my car doors froze shut.

We had to use pick axes to get the ice up in the condos we service. That wasnt fun

[Rjay]

I got down to 11 last night. Up to 24 now.

[Morris]

Park at 25 at 1 pm.

[Juliancolton]

Got down to 11 here last night and it was cold enough to freeze the local pond.

 

 

The ice on my pond is 2.3" thick after the last couple days. Just a hair thicker and I'd feel comfortable venturing out.

[uncle W]

the ao nao forecasts are still encouraging...a few members plunge off the chart while others go positive...the arctic oscillation is below -2 and could get to -3 on this scale...not bad after being quite positive for some time...

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z ECMWF has quite the storm for Saturday into Sunday. Low pressure tracks just inland. 2-3" of rain and 40+kt winds along the coast with 25-30kt winds inland. Surface temps well into the middle 50's on Sunday.

[CIK62]

Outside of tomorrow, 12Z GFS has no clear cut below normal days throughout its 16 day run.   If this is correct, by the end of the period we will have just about 5 BN days out of a total 50-day period. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016010512&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=228

[PB GFI]

Outside of tomorrow, 12Z GFS has no clear cut below normal days throughout its 16 day run. If this is correct, by the end of the period we will have just about 5 BN days out of a total 50-day period.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016010512&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=228

You posted 2 weeks ago that the 1st 7 days would be plus 8 .

I mean do you ever go back and read what you post ?

1 thru 6 are BN, thanks. Day 7 will b AN . Probably a 6 degree bust inside 2 weeks.

Very bad

[stlirish]

Outside of tomorrow, 12Z GFS has no clear cut below normal days throughout its 16 day run. If this is correct, by the end of the period we will have just about 5 BN days out of a total 50-day period.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016010512&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=228

And it won't be correct. Bank on it. You keep locking into your one solution, basing it as fact. We will be BN for at least 5 days out of 9 days from the 11th on. I predict by the 19th we will be -1 for the month.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[stlirish]

This is a must read from CPC (for week 2, 8-14 day period):

 

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 13 - 19 2016

DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
DOMAIN IS PREDICTED TO DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT, AND (IN MOST CASES) PROGRESS
EASTWARD. THIS PROGRESSION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PHASE OF
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
PACIFIC. THE UNUSUALLY MILD DECEMBER EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS HAS PASSED, WITH THE NEXT FEW WEEKS EXPECTED TO FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TODAY'S WEEK-2 AUTOMATIC BLENDED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO FAST IN REMOVING THE LARGE AREA OF
ANTICIPATED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS FROM
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS IS THOUGHT TO BE RELATED TO INPUT TOOLS WHICH RELY
MORE HEAVILY ON CALIBRATION TECHNIQUES, WHICH CONSIDER OBSERVED TEMPERATURES
FROM THE PREVIOUS 45 DAYS. MOST OF THE PAST 45 DAYS INCLUDES THE HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS WARMTH OF DECEMBER, PROVIDING A RECENT WARM BIAS IN CALIBRATION
TOOLS. SUCH A RAPID REMOVAL OF THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WAS DISCOUNTED.
AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A 500-HPA RIDGE AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, INCREASED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD MOTION OF THE PREDICTED
AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A DEAMPLIFYING HEIGHT PATTERN AT HIGH
LATITUDES FAVORS MORE SEASONABLE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ALASKA, WITH RESIDUAL WARMTH ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCE BEING A PREDICTED EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. CURRENTLY, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS INCREASED
STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST REGIONS, CONTINUING
OUT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE
IN THE STORM TRACK TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE (AND AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION) TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. 

[PB GFI]

This is a must read from CPC (for week 2, 8-14 day period):

 

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 13 - 19 2016

DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST

DOMAIN IS PREDICTED TO DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT, AND (IN MOST CASES) PROGRESS

EASTWARD. THIS PROGRESSION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PHASE OF

THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL

PACIFIC. THE UNUSUALLY MILD DECEMBER EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN

CONUS HAS PASSED, WITH THE NEXT FEW WEEKS EXPECTED TO FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY

COLDER AIR PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TODAY'S WEEK-2 AUTOMATIC BLENDED

TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO FAST IN REMOVING THE LARGE AREA OF

ANTICIPATED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS FROM

THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS IS THOUGHT TO BE RELATED TO INPUT TOOLS WHICH RELY

MORE HEAVILY ON CALIBRATION TECHNIQUES, WHICH CONSIDER OBSERVED TEMPERATURES

FROM THE PREVIOUS 45 DAYS. MOST OF THE PAST 45 DAYS INCLUDES THE HIGHLY

ANOMALOUS WARMTH OF DECEMBER, PROVIDING A RECENT WARM BIAS IN CALIBRATION

TOOLS. SUCH A RAPID REMOVAL OF THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WAS DISCOUNTED.

AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A 500-HPA RIDGE AND

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, INCREASED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE

SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD MOTION OF THE PREDICTED

AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A DEAMPLIFYING HEIGHT PATTERN AT HIGH

LATITUDES FAVORS MORE SEASONABLE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND

CENTRAL ALASKA, WITH RESIDUAL WARMTH ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION

OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE PRIMARY

DIFFERENCE BEING A PREDICTED EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM

ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. CURRENTLY, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS INCREASED

STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST REGIONS, CONTINUING

OUT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE

IN THE STORM TRACK TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE (AND AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF

FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION) TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. 

 

D 8 -14 .

[PB GFI]

Look at the CFS has for week 2 and 3 . Looks like the Euro weeklies .

Agrees with the Euro which aslo shows  a 10 to 14 day period of BN . 

 

 

 

[Hailstorm]

PB, thanks. How is the new EPS looking for today? What's the departure from normal between 10-24? -5 or -10* F?

[PB GFI]

PB, thanks. How is the new EPS looking for today? What's the departure from normal between 10-24? -5 or -10* F?

Probably a 7 day + period of BN ( will depend on/if snow cover ) after a quick 3 day AN regime comes in and goes out . By D 15 the trough is deepening again in the SE , there is a trough in the GAO and one in Europe .

That should get reflected deeper D 15 as the euro washes the troughs out downstream .

That takes you to the 20th . I want to see what that looks like Thrs vs the weeklies to see if they match up before I take a stab on the last 10

 

Here is the in and out ridge , then the start of the decline once again , and this time it`s around for 7 plus days .

[bluewave]

While the next cold shot looks to hold on for longer than this one, the Euro keeps the 11 degree 

low in NYC as the coldest of the month. This one had a ideal northerly cold air drain down the

Hudson Valley. The next cool down has more of a westerly to northwesterly flow which

moderates crossing the Great Lakes.

 

[uncle W]

the 11 degrees this morning beats 1997-98's 14 and 1982-83's 12 for the winter minimum...

[Brian5671]

what a killer for now-cold  then with a spike to 60 with a rainstorm and then back into the freezer....

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

what a killer for now-cold then with a spike to 60 with a rainstorm and then back into the freezer....

Worst possible scenario for people who work out side.... freeze, soaked and freeze. And even more so for those who earn money from snow removal.

The amazingly awful thing about this next storm is it is going to soak ski country on a top mid weekend winter. All those gains down the tubes again

[Rittenhouse]

I know it isn't y'all's favorite model, but the GEM has been a little more consistent than the GFS for this weekend's setup. The highlight is the nor'easter on 1/11.

 

[qg_omega]

While the next cold shot looks to hold on for longer than this one, the Euro keeps the 11 degree

low in NYC as the coldest of the month. This one had a ideal northerly cold air drain down the

Hudson Valley. The next cool down has more of a westerly to northwesterly flow which

moderates crossing the Great Lakes.

KNYC_2016010512_dx_240.png

Agreed next week is below normal but not close to today

[PaEasternWX]

Im still kind of new so I have this newb question. Why is having higher heights over Alaska important if you want cold/snow in the east?

Thanks in advance.

[Neblizzard]

Im still kind of new so I have this newb question. Why is having higher heights over Alaska important if you want cold/snow in the east?

Thanks in advance.

Higher Heights over Alaska are usually associated with the negative phase of the EPO, it helps establish cross polar flow which allows arctic air to drive south into the US. You want the flow to be merdional as opposed to off the pacific. Having a GOA vortex usually allows pacific air to flood the US.

[Morris]

Westhampton is down to 10 already.

3 degrees lower than the morning low.

[PaEasternWX]

Currently 20.8 °F. As of 8 PM. Thinking it may get down to the lower teens.

[pazzo83]

No wind = no major temp drops in the city.  Park at 28F.

[wthrmn654]

Crazy at mY house. New tripod with 5 foot pole with whole station at top with a fars. No wind,temps are about 26.0℉

Metal probe sensor ground level, 16.0℉

About 15 feet different in height.