Morris Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 KNYC down to 11. Newark 11. LGA 14 JFK 13 after hitting 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 KNYC down to 11. Very impressive EWR also down to 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Temp is currently 10 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Very impressive EWR also down to 11 Credit to the NAM when it gets something right. It was harping on the colder temps on run after run for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 NAM has the high today at 23 after a low of 9. HRRR has the high at 27 and likely wrong at getting us back down to 15 tomorrow night. NAM has that low at 17. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 For those keeping track of January's anomalies, with today's 11° reading, January has a negative monthly anomaly in NYC. The last such anomaly was October 8, 2015. However, that month went on to average 1.1° above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 4 degrees currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Classic northerly cold air drain down the Hudson Valley for NYC with the temp down to 11 as of 6am. Today may possibly be the coldest low of the month for NYC. The cold shot next week looks to come in on a more W or NW flow so the lowest temp may not be able to rival today in NYC. Quick rebound this week and weekend to above normal temps again before pattern turns colder next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Just for a reference it is 12 down here. Impressive. Wind chill -3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Classic northerly cold air drain down the Hudson Valley for NYC with the temp down to 11 as of 6am. Today may possibly be the coldest low of the month for NYC. The cold shot next week looks to come in on a more W or NW flow so the lowest temp may not be able to rival today in NYC. Quick rebound this week and weekend to above normal temps again before pattern turns colder next week. Yep....this was ideal for NYC to drop low...next week Pv is over the northern plains. But this might allow for a clipper so NYC can score its first snowfall of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 9 degrees here...ties the 40 year record low for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Classic northerly cold air drain down the Hudson Valley for NYC with the temp down to 11 as of 6am. Today may possibly be the coldest low of the month for NYC. The cold shot next week looks to come in on a more W or NW flow so the lowest temp may not be able to rival today in NYC. Quick rebound this week and weekend to above normal temps again before pattern turns colder next week. The center point/coldest days of the cold shot next week which looks to be around a 7 to 8 day outbreak vs the current 3 days of BNs look to center itself either side of the 14th . On W or NW flow KNYC would need snow cover to all the way down here . Non the less what is coming between the 11th - 19th is COLD . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Hovering between 9-10F here. Looking forward to the next warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 10 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 When looking at the weeklies it is always hard to look past week 2 or 3 with any real confidence for a few reasons , one they run off the 0z ensemble of that morning and if day 15 is wrong , it will get reflected out in time . In general as time increases your center point diverges so you have to take the out weeks 4 5 6 with a real grain of salt . What I like to do when I look at the weeklies is go from week to week and see if an error pattern develops in the model means . In other words , is there a bias at work and can you see it over time . The European seasonal center points the HB ridge on it`s WESTERN side from J -M . Over the last few weeks , its week 3 and 4 keep adjusting west with it`s greatest centering of the height field . As a result we have been looking colder in guidance . Hence this small period and the one you will see next week . I had always thought we would relax after the 20th . The question is to what ? Yesterday of course the minute one said relax the usual suspects rush in yell 98 and say the CONUS will get flooded with warm air . THAT SEEMS TO BE INCORRECT AGAIN . Here are the weeklies from 0z DEC 24 week 3 ( Night and day difference ) 4 ( You swap the ridge out on the EC with a trough ) 5 ( Look at the western migration of that ridge in the means ) and here are the new week 2- 3 -4 run yesterday of the 46 day ensembles . You can see how the heights get pulled back as we get closer and as a result the trough is able to establish itself in the SE in the means . After a very cold 8 day period next week , we moderate its prob back to N to slightly A . If these are correct , that too will be transient . Side note , the break on the weeklies is now centered between Jan 29 - Feb 5 And Feb 5 through Feb 19 look Very Good . But there is plenty potentially here over the next 3 weeks after the " abbreviated " warm up flies through the flow . Dec 24 weeklies vs Jan 4 weeklies . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The front is likely massacring the warm SSTs. Buoys 44065 (outside NYC harbor) and 44025 (south of LI) both still at 51 degrees which is about what it was when I checked last week. Crazy for the time of year. They will certainly start to drop faster now, but it takes time to release all that heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Sunrise this morning (temperature 11°): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Nice display of Arctic sea smoke showing up on the South Shore ocean surf cams with the SST's still above 50 degrees. http://www.bungersurf.com/Bunger_Surfcam/ http://www.nysea.com/live-cam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 10.4℉ lowest this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Could push 60F on Sunday with nearly 2" of rain if the Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Low was about 6.5°. First teens and single digits of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Could push 60F on Sunday with nearly 2" of rain if the Euro is correct. Wow. That reminds me of an event last Jan, a bit later where the Euro led the charge and was right-incredible rainstorm that started out as freezing rain but dumped about 2 inches of rain in the end-other models were clueless until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Wow. That reminds me of an event last Jan, a bit later where the Euro led the charge and was right-incredible rainstorm that started out as freezing rain but dumped about 2 inches of rain in the end-other models were clueless until the end. Looks warm before the cold front. After that the models show a cold pattern setting up which could lead to our first snowfall mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Wow. That reminds me of an event last Jan, a bit later where the Euro led the charge and was right-incredible rainstorm that started out as freezing rain but dumped about 2 inches of rain in the end-other models were clueless until the end. 1/18/15 I think is the date you are referring to. I had .89" and my weather log states "AM freezing rain, change to rain, then back to freezing rain, .50 ice on the driveway" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Wow. That reminds me of an event last Jan, a bit later where the Euro led the charge and was right-incredible rainstorm that started out as freezing rain but dumped about 2 inches of rain in the end-other models were clueless until the end. Yup we had thunderstorms here with that. But afterwards the pattern changed for the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Did anyone see the ocean effect snows on cape cod?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Looks warm before the cold front. After that the models show a cold pattern setting up which could lead to our first snowfall mid January. If the core of cold air settles overhead like the overnight guidance would suggest then the track will likely be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Got down to 11 here last night and it was cold enough to freeze the local pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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