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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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-- Changed Discussion --

MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN

OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS GENERALLY ON

TRACK.

700-300 HPA TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH INTO THE EARLY MORNING

HOURS...THEN DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN TOWARDS

MORNING. FLURRIES HAVE BASICALLY EXITED TO THE S/E...AND ANY

LINGERING STRATO-CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE TROUGH AXIS

SLIDES TO THE EAST/RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. STILL ON TRACK FOR

CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A

CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND PLUMMETING TEMPS. AFTER RECORD

WARMTH FOR NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON

IS ANTICIPATED. WITH COLD BEING LIMITED BY STRENGTH OF WIND TO

WHAT COLD ADVECTION BRINGS IN. NOTING ALREADY TEMPERATURES UNDER

CUTTING FORECAST BY 2-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. HAVE UPDATED

USING A BLEND OF THE LOWEST VALUE OF LAV/MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM

AND HRRR 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND THOSE INDIVIDUAL CONSTITUENTS.

THE BLEND WAS WEIGHED TOWARDS THE COLDEST VALUE AT ANY GIVEN

POINT. LOWS GENERALLY 10-15 NEAR THE COAST...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS

EASTERN TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...WINDS RUNNING A TAD STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SO

IMPACT OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURE

FORECASTS...WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN

PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AT MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES

OVERNIGHT WILL RUN AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW NEAR THE COAST...AND 5

TO 10 BELOW INLAND.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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-- Changed Discussion --

MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN

OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS GENERALLY ON

TRACK.

700-300 HPA TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH INTO THE EARLY MORNING

HOURS...THEN DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN TOWARDS

MORNING. FLURRIES HAVE BASICALLY EXITED TO THE S/E...AND ANY

LINGERING STRATO-CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE TROUGH AXIS

SLIDES TO THE EAST/RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. STILL ON TRACK FOR

CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A

CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND PLUMMETING TEMPS. AFTER RECORD

WARMTH FOR NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON

IS ANTICIPATED. WITH COLD BEING LIMITED BY STRENGTH OF WIND TO

WHAT COLD ADVECTION BRINGS IN. NOTING ALREADY TEMPERATURES UNDER

CUTTING FORECAST BY 2-4 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS. HAVE UPDATED

USING A BLEND OF THE LOWEST VALUE OF LAV/MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM

AND HRRR 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND THOSE INDIVIDUAL CONSTITUENTS.

THE BLEND WAS WEIGHED TOWARDS THE COLDEST VALUE AT ANY GIVEN

POINT. LOWS GENERALLY 10-15 NEAR THE COAST...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS

EASTERN TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...WINDS RUNNING A TAD STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SO

IMPACT OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURE

FORECASTS...WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN

PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AT MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES

OVERNIGHT WILL RUN AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW NEAR THE COAST...AND 5

TO 10 BELOW INLAND.

-- End Changed Discussion --

I mentioned the NAM and HRRR numbers earlier.

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