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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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Interesting, nws was concerned they were going busy high tonight at the 6pm forecast update...

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN

OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS GENERALLY ON

TRACK.

700-300 HPA TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD AIR

ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A

CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND PLUMMETING TEMPS. AFTER RECORD

WARMTH FOR NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON

IS ANTICIPATED. EVEN WITH A CLEAR SKY...THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL

BE WELL MIXED...SO DO NOT EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO

OCCUR. EVEN WITH THAT PROVISION...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET

TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS WELL INLAND TO THE MID TEENS NEAR THE

COAST. MOS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.

OF SOME CONCERN...IS ALREADY FALLING OFF A TAD FASTER THAN

FORECAST...IF TRENDS HOLD...WILL HAVE TO ADJUST LOWS DOWNWARD WITH

NEXT UPDATE.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL

FALL TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST...TO 0 TO -10 AWAY FROM THE

COAST.

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