mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 How is that relevant ? We are arguing departures . WGAS about precip , thats not being discussed . The debate here is temps . Instead of cussin and fightin, what do you think is happening with precip? below normal precip starting Jan 9 seem counter-intuitive to what the long range models have been showing for a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Instead of cussin and fightin, what do you think is happening with precip? below normal precip starting Jan 9 seem counter-intuitive to what the long range models have been showing for a couple weeks. I am more interested in the pattern overall . Hard to look out 10 days and get a grasp one particular SW inside the pattern . There should be SLP of the EC DAY 8/9 Who/ What will not get clear until we r inside 5 days , so I would rather stick to the pattern at this range . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 LOL, I know what it is....was asking for detail on what Morris was saying it showed. 850's anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 850's anomalies. what about the overall set up? still showing a coastal? still showing -AO? still showing a bootleg -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 what about the overall set up? still showing a coastal? still showing -AO? still showing a bootleg -NAO? I just took a glance at the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 what about the overall set up? still showing a coastal? still showing -AO? still showing a bootleg -NAO? Still showing a warm coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Major changes on the GFS for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Major intrusion of arctic air dropping down into the lakes with the PV dropping down and cycologenisis along the baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Major snowfall for Upstate NY, most of Central and all of Northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Major snowfall for Upstate NY, most of Central and all of Northern New England. Rain for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 998mb due South of Long Island and then inland over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Rain for us? It's close for the interior, but yes, rain verbatim for 99% of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This was the 06z run And this is the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Amazing how one run of the GFS can be so different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Def a jump towards the euro with the inland runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Amazing how one run of the GFS can be so different We need the PV to split further and drop a bit further South. If that happens, it would be a game changer for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 We need the PV to split further and drop a bit further South. If that happens, it would be a game changer for the coast. Would you say this is a step in the right direction from previous runs, or worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Would you say this is a step in the right direction from previous runs, or worse? You need the first system on Friday to be further east so it drags the boundary/cold air further east. Then you kind of play a game of perfect timing so the system does not end up out to sea. It's going to be hard to get snow along the coast with this set up, def something to watch for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Would you say this is a step in the right direction from previous runs, or worse? You would need a 14 degree drop in temp guidance ATM for the time period WPC prog from 9:15 am this morning Max http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/maxloop.html Min http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/minloop.html http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 You need the first system on Friday to be further east so it drags the boundary/cold air further east. Then you kind of play a game of perfect timing so the system does not end up out to sea. It's going to be hard to get snow along the coast with this set up, def something to watch for the interior Most of the cold air stays bottled up in the mid-west. I would love to see what would have happened if the PV could have been a bit more disrupted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Most of the cold air stays bottled up in the mid-west. I would love to see what would have happened if the PV could have been a bit more disrupted.The PV does get dislodged, but the cold air looks to drop well west of us in the form of a Great Basin high at D6 then a Plains outbreak/McFarland signature at D8. This pumps up heights in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This was the 06z run And this is the 12z run Thus why it is still a better idea to use ensemble means in the post 120 hour outlooks. OP runs will bounce all over the place from run to run....but you know this. Guess Im just surprised that someone like you who has been around for a while would use an OP run at this juncture? Dont take it personal or as an attack, that is not my intention at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=12-GEFS-NA-850-temp-0-1 GEFS is steady with the idea of a retreating PV this month Alan Hoffman this morning--via the Mid-Atlantic http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47425-january-medlong-range-discussion/page-34#entry3828654 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Old day 10 -15 vs the new day 6 - 10 Yep steady steady ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Thus why it is still a better idea to use ensemble means in the post 120 hour outlooks. OP runs will bounce all over the place from run to run....but you know this. Guess Im just surprised that someone like you who has been around for a while would use an OP run at this juncture? Dont take it personal or as an attack, that is not my intention at all. The 12z GEFS mean argues for more of a benchmark track, and even with that, it doesn't look like it would support a snowy solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Old day 10 -15 vs the new day 6 - 10 Yep steady steady ...... It now seems to be responding to the stronger blocking than it had originally forecast. If things verify, it will be a nice success for the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Old day 10 -15 vs the new day 6 - 10 Yep steady steady ...... Paulie a static image forecast till the 14th ? you are better than that ,post the rest of the loop for use please this is 48 hrs later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Euro is pretty much a cold front now with the costal storm for Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Paulie a static image forecast till the 14th ? you are better than that ,post the rest of the loop for use please It`s a 5 day mean . The point is it has washed the trough out in the L/R only to catch it in the 6 - 10 . I would be careful looking at it`s D `10 -15 thinking that trough is gone in the E . I think its there between the 12th and 20th . After that I bet we will agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Euro is pretty much a cold front now with the costal storm for Sunday... Progressive pattern, no blocking. 12z GFS was definitely a step in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.