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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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How is that relevant ? We are arguing departures .

 

WGAS about precip , thats not being discussed . 

 

The debate here is temps .

Instead of cussin and fightin, what do you think is happening with precip?  below normal precip starting Jan 9 seem counter-intuitive to what the long range models have been showing for a couple weeks.

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Instead of cussin and fightin, what do you think is happening with precip?  below normal precip starting Jan 9 seem counter-intuitive to what the long range models have been showing for a couple weeks.

 

 

I am more interested in the pattern overall . Hard to look out 10 days and get a grasp one particular SW inside the pattern . 

There should be SLP of the EC DAY 8/9 

Who/ What will not get clear until we r inside 5 days , so I would rather stick to the pattern at this range  .

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Would you say this is a step in the right direction from previous runs, or worse?

You need the first system on Friday to be further east so it drags the boundary/cold air further east. Then you kind of play a game of perfect timing so the system does not end up out to sea. It's going to be hard to get snow along the coast with this set up, def something to watch for the interior

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You need the first system on Friday to be further east so it drags the boundary/cold air further east. Then you kind of play a game of perfect timing so the system does not end up out to sea. It's going to be hard to get snow along the coast with this set up, def something to watch for the interior

Most of the cold air stays bottled up in the mid-west. I would love to see what would have happened if the PV could have been a bit more disrupted. 

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Most of the cold air stays bottled up in the mid-west. I would love to see what would have happened if the PV could have been a bit more disrupted.

The PV does get dislodged, but the cold air looks to drop well west of us in the form of a Great Basin high at D6 then a Plains outbreak/McFarland signature at D8. This pumps up heights in the East.
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This was the 06z run

gfs_z500_vort_us_26.png

And this is the 12z run

gfs_z500_vort_us_25.png

Thus why it is still a better idea to use ensemble means in the post 120 hour outlooks. OP runs will bounce all over the place from run to run....but you know this. Guess Im just surprised that someone like you who has been around for a while would use an OP run at this juncture? Dont take it personal or as an attack, that is not my intention at all.
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Thus why it is still a better idea to use ensemble means in the post 120 hour outlooks. OP runs will bounce all over the place from run to run....but you know this. Guess Im just surprised that someone like you who has been around for a while would use an OP run at this juncture? Dont take it personal or as an attack, that is not my intention at all.

The 12z GEFS mean argues for more of a benchmark track, and even with that, it doesn't look like it would support a snowy solution.

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Paulie  a static image forecast  :arrowhead:

till the 14th ?

you are better than that ,post the rest of the loop for use please

 

 

It`s a 5 day mean . 

The point is it has washed the trough out in the L/R only to catch it in the 6 - 10 .  I would be careful looking at it`s D `10 -15 thinking that trough is gone in the E .

 

I think its there between the 12th and 20th .

After that I bet we will agree. 

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