Rjay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Jan 8-10th looking interesting on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think you leave the banter thread for forecasting patterns etc all winter and only pull up individual threads out for threats . Lot of ideas are already in the for Jan I think you lose the continuity. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Jan 8-10th looking interesting on the 18z GFSAnd the Euro Weeklies, which are deliciously improved from what I hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 I think you leave the banter thread for forecasting patterns etc all winter and only pull up individual threads out for threats . Lot of ideas are already in the for Jan I think you lose the continuity. JMO Leave the banter thread for garbage. Too many good posts getting burried. Pattern and obs in here. Specific storm threat threads eventually. You're welcome to move some of your posts in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Leave the banter thread for garbage. Too many good posts getting burried. Pattern and obs in here. Specific storm threat threads eventually. You're welcome to move some of your posts in here. Yeah. The banter thread has most of the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Leave the banter thread for garbage. Too many good posts getting burried. Pattern and obs in here. Specific storm threat threads eventually. You're welcome to move some of your posts in here. Yeah i agree as well, the banter thread is unfortunately a necessity...leave the typical bs'ing, whining, imby questions/thoughts etc in there. Have a monthly obs/discussion thread that contain actual meteorological posts, and when threats get far enough in, specific threat threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Weeklies look real good for the middle of January, they break the pattern down a bit around week 4....but that's way out there and highly subject to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Weeklies look real good for the middle of January, they break the pattern down a bit around week 4....but that's way out there and highly subject to change Got better inside 1 week . The new week 4 vs The old week 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 January records from Central Park for reference... JanuaryNYC climate stats from Central Park...since 1870...Decade averages...decade...ave...high...low...ave/ max min max...min...snowfall...precipitation1870's...30.3...37.5...23.8.........................68...-4......9.6"......3.29"1880's...28.7...39.6...24.7......53.5.....4.3...65...-6......9.1"......4.12"1890's...31.7...37.6...23.7......55.0.....9.0...64...-2......8.6"......3.46"1900's...32.1...38.4...25.3......55.2.....7.5...64...-1......8.1"......3.07"1910's...32.4...40.9...21.7......57.1.....6.6...69...-5......5.1"......3.77"1920's...30.5...34.0...23.4......53.9.....4.6...62...-2......8.9"......3.52"1930's...34.7...43.2...28.9......59.9.....9.7...70...-3......6.4"......3.98"1940's...31.0...38.6...25.0......56.2.....7.6...63....0......7.7"......3.20"1950's...33.7...41.4...28.5......58.7...10.8...72....0......5.0"......2.75"1960's...31.8...37.4...26.7......55.4.....8.6...68...-1......7.1"......2.37"1970's...30.6...37.3...22.1......57.5.....6.0...66...-2......8.0"......4.57"1980's...31.3...37.4...26.1......57.4.....6.8...63...-2......7.9"......3.26"1990's...34.8...41.4...25.6......60.9...11.2...66...-2......6.1"......4.47"2000's...33.1...40.9...24.7......60.8.....9.8...72....1......7.2"......3.19"2010's...32.2...37.3...28.6......57.8.....9.1.. 62.....4...13.8"......3.53"1870 to2009......31.9...39.0...25.0......57.0.....7.9...67...-2......7.5"......3.50" 1980 to2009......33.1...39.9...25.5......59.7.....9.3...67...-1......7.1"......3.64"Warmest........Coldest........Wettest........Driest43.2 1932...21.7 1918...10.52" 1979...0.58" 198141.4 1990...22.1 1977.....8.27" 1978...0.66" 197041.4 1950...23.0 1888.....7.94" 1915...0.77" 195540.9 1913...23.4 1920.....7.54" 1936...0.94" 187640.9 2006...23.7 1912.....6.99" 1999...0.96" 189640.3 1933...23.7 1893.....6.99" 1923...1.00" 198540.2 1937...23.8 1875.....6.46" 1982...1.10" 196940.0 1998...24.7 2004.....6.12" 1891...1.28" 191639.9 2002...24.7 1884.....6.04" 1949...1.39" 196739.6 1880...24.7 1881.....5.97" 1937...1.54" 1956warmest temperatures72 1950 1/2672 2007 1/670 1932 1/1469 1916 1/2769 2002 1/2968 1932 1/1368 1876 1/268 1967 1/24Coldest temperatures-6 1882 1/24-5 1914 1/14-4 1918 1/1-4 1879 1/3-4 1904 1/5-3 1918 1/4-3 1914 1/13-3 1875 1/10-3 1936 1/23-2 1994 1/19-2 1985 1/21-2 1977 1/17-2 1925 1/28-2 1896 1/6Coldest monthly max...41 188144 197745 188345 192545 194846 197147 194147 1877Warmest monthly min...25 193724 199024 193221 199321 200221 195320 1949Greatest monthly snowfall...36.0" 201127.4" 192526.1" 199624.5" 192323.6" 193520.5" 187720.3" 197818.4" 190517.5" 188217.3" 187917.3" 2004BIGGEST SNOWSTORMS...20.2" 1996 1/7-819.0" 2011 1/26-2713.8" 2005 1/22-2313.6" 1978 1/19-2013.0" 1877 1/1-213.0" 1879 1/15-1613.0" 1935 1/23-2412.5" 1964 1/12-1311.5" 1925 1/211.0" 1905 1/24-2510.3" 2004 1/2810.0" 1897 1/27-2810.0" 1908 1/23-2410.0" 1910 1/14-159.9"...1961 1/19-20 9.8"...2015 1/26-27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 To Professional Mets particularly: Am I correct that the splitting of the PV is crucial to the 2 week of Jan pattern change? though arguably we are stepping down to near normal as early as 4 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 GFSx has the first 5 days of January at +4/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Got better inside 1 week . The new week 4 vs The old week 5 the new one looks worse... that is a classic super nino pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 the anomaly placement matches feb 98 almost exactly. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 the new one looks worse... that is a classic super nino pattern Look at the correction in the SE as the jet is much more progressive however as is It is the only break in those 5 weeks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 the anomaly placement matches feb 98 almost exactly. lol Yeh 5 days - lol Nice work ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I'd like the pattern to look a whole lot better than that the last week of january if we're are expecting a real flip to snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Yeh 5 days - lol Nice work ..... what's your point? that 5 day pattern is a dead ringer for feb 98. if you knew it looked bad you would have said, "this is a bad pattern but it's only 5 days" in your original post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 the new one looks worse... that is a classic super nino pattern So you DO want cold and snowy. Knew it all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 what's your point? that 5 day pattern is a dead ringer for feb 98. if you knew it looked bad you would have said, "this is a bad pattern but it's only 5 days" in your original post. Sure it is a 5 day break inside 30 days . ( ALA feb 19 -22 Feb 15 ) Why would you compare a 5 day mean to a 1 month analog . What does week 2- 3 -5 and 6 look like ? 2015 ? 1978 ? 2010 ? Are those 4 weeks not right smack in the middle of a strong NINO Imagine if we posted that ... So whats your point are 4 out those 5 weeks are NOT showing you a great pattern ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I'd like the pattern to look a whole lot better than that the last week of january if we're are expecting a real flip to snowy. Hows this flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 better...would like more ridging in ak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 and where's the negative nao? That weekly goes to feb 8th. It's go time. I can't think of a strong nino that was snowy in the northeast without a negative nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The pattern truly does not look like anything to write home about next 4 weeks. Sure it's better than December, of course, let's get real December was +13. But it still looks subpar as far as winter patterns go and we are into the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The pattern truly does not look like anything to write home about next 4 weeks. Sure it's better than December, of course, let's get real December was +13. But it still looks subpar as far as winter patterns go and we are into the heart of winter. How is this a subpar winter pattern? That's a -AO/EPO/NAO, +PNA pattern. The pattern relaxes until about the 8th, but after that it's one of the best winter storm patterns for the east since 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The pattern truly does not look like anything to write home about next 4 weeks. Sure it's better than December, of course, let's get real December was +13. But it still looks subpar as far as winter patterns go and we are into the heart of winter. Not sure what you're looking at. The ensembles show the AO tanking after the first week of January. Whether it's s transient change remains to be seen but for you to say the pattern doesn't look good at all the next month is just bad analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 How is this a subpar winter pattern? That's a -AO/EPO/NAO, +PNA pattern. The pattern relaxes until about the 8th, but after that it's one of the best winter storm patterns for the east since 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Agree. The pattern looks great mid month onward. I think some people in here are trolling. -AO and +Pna looks like a lock. Lets hope the nao follows. Seems like every met on the social media sites are really gungho on the pattern going forward ( HM,Mike ventrice and others.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 CPC doesn't give anyone here a good pattern just sayin http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ Current-- Day 8-14 temp prog http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 CPC doesn't give anyone here a good pattern just sayin Right, the brown color is super hot which is bad and we want the blue color which is super cold. Also, the white color means no precipitation and the green means it's raining. But what do the numbers mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Right, the brown color is super hot which is bad and we want the blue color which is super cold. Also, the white color means no precipitation and the green means it's raining. But what do the numbers mean? (%) percentages just a wee bit higher at 55-60 % inside that contour --for example on the temp guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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