MegaMike Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Your average, everyday +7.9° hourly temperature change in Groton, CT and North Andover, MA. Seeing mostly +2 to +6 hourly temperature changes now in SNE. Still near freezing in Pawtucket, surprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 What a horrible job by all model guidance on sfc temps. Really only the BTV WRF showed the cold not moving over interior. The 06z nam had ORH near freezing for 12z. A 6 hour forecast. But the model failure at the sfc isn't a surprise. That was fairly predictable. It is still amazing how fast they insist on warming up the interior though every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 What a horrible job by all model guidance on sfc temps. Really only the BTV WRF showed the cold not moving over interior. The 06z nam had ORH near freezing for 12z. A 6 hour forecast. But the model failure at the sfc isn't a surprise. That was fairly predictable. It is still amazing how fast they insist on warming up the interior though every time. The HRRR even at a 12 or 15 hour lead time did a really nice job. Was the only one that had anything worthwhile. NAM was OK... the rest atrocious... though that's always the way these things go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 What a horrible job by all model guidance on sfc temps. Really only the BTV WRF showed the cold not moving over interior. The 06z nam had ORH near freezing for 12z. A 6 hour forecast. But the model failure at the sfc isn't a surprise. That was fairly predictable. It is still amazing how fast they insist on warming up the interior though every time. I'm telling ya, bTV wrf is pretty good with details like that. Look what it does this evening. Classic tickle tuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 What a horrible job by all model guidance on sfc temps. Really only the BTV WRF showed the cold not moving over interior. The 06z nam had ORH near freezing for 12z. A 6 hour forecast. But the model failure at the sfc isn't a surprise. That was fairly predictable. It is still amazing how fast they insist on warming up the interior though every time. I'm not sure what they were showing for warming, but it's warming up in CT--a lot of interior stations (particularly east of the Ct. River) are above 30 and in some cases above freezing. Temps steadily ticking up here, too. 22.7* sn- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The NAM is supposed to handle mesoscale stuff like that. I don't know why it was so warm at the surface. HRRR did do well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Up to 30 now. IP, ZR, and a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The NAM is supposed to handle mesoscale stuff like that. I don't know why it was so warm at the surface. HRRR did do well though. I feel like when we always know the models will dislodge the cold too quickly these events are not too hard to forecast. At least we know the model bias works every time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Rain mixing in now. 1" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 At least for this event the SREFs did pretty well. I kept an eye out on the SREF BUFKIT profiles and they all had a really good handle / tight clustering on the mid level warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The NAM is supposed to handle mesoscale stuff like that. I don't know why it was so warm at the surface. HRRR did do well though. I remember the nam got an "upgrade" around 2012 and ever since then it has not been nearly as good at showing CAD as it used to. Even back in the days of the 2008 ice storm it was excellent at showing that stuff. But now it has really just turned into another meh model for mesoscale CAD. That BTV WRF is really the one to use now. Or HRRR once close enough to te event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I feel like when we always know the models will dislodge the cold too quickly these events are not too hard to forecast. At least we know the model bias works every time! Yeah for sure. But that was really bizzare. Didn't think it would be that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Hey wxniss..we moved. The hood is yours alone now. I'm at 32/32. View through kitchen window about 5 minutes ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 At least for this event the SREFs did pretty well. I kept an eye out on the SREF BUFKIT profiles and they all had a really good handle / tight clustering on the mid level warmth. RGEM did well in this too. It has become very good once inside 36h. It showed the sfc colder than the nam...and showed the mid level warmth as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I remember the nam got an "upgrade" around 2012 and ever since then it has not been nearly as good at showing CAD as it used to. Even back in the days of the 2008 ice storm it was excellent at showing that stuff. But now it has really just turned into another meh model for mesoscale CAD. That BTV WRF is really the one to use now. Or HRRR once close enough to te event. I thought it was a little odd that the 4km NAM-WRF really didn't show the cold any better than the 12 km version. You'd expect the increased resolution to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Flakes are much improved at this point--bordering on legit. 23.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 So BOS exceeds last December snow total....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Sleety night on tap tonight it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Congrats Scooter? I hope that's not your official measuring method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 A few flakes mixing in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Hey wxniss..we moved. The hood is yours alone now. I'm at 32/32. View through kitchen window about 5 minutes ago: image.jpeg 39 more to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 32F with light snow mixing with sleet...about 4 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Popped above freezing at 33 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 50/50 mix here sleet/snow. Was coming down moderately a short time ago...small flake size tho...temp is now up to 31. 2 1/2" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 20.3 F and mostly sleet at the moment. About 4.5 inches of snow from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Lol, I complained on the town's FB page about our street being unplowed and an idiot plow driver just came through and took out at least 10 mail boxes including ours. Pelting continues, roads are slick. Up to 27F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Bad road conditions on interstate 91 in far northern Connecticut, moderate freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 IP, 15.2°F, 4" snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Def sleet here but seems more and more mixed with other softer lighter floatier things. This is a win as it adds up to close to 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 31F here with what looks like 1" of sleet. Roads are totally sleet/ice covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.