OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Cape cod isn't really a good OES place. Best place Is usually climo spots from near me to about PYM. Northeast Nova Scotia ftw on that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Northeast Nova Scotia ftw on that lol. What do the Cape Breton highlands avg? 200"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 What do the Cape Breton highlands avg? 200"+? Yea i believe so. No measurement there specifically..but 160 at lower elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yea i believe so. No measurement there specifically..but 160 at lower elevation There's some weenie little elevated lake glens up there...and those Aspy river valleys drop off pretty quickly from the surrounding terrain. The rare times they go calm, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Models favor a north wind come Monday, over very warm water for this time of the year. SSTs around 8.5C to 9.5C over the Bay and north of Provincetown, MA. 850mb temps approach -14 to -19C as arctic front moves through the region on Monday morning as an ocean storm takes shape east of the region. The combination of the incoming ridge to the west and the downstream storm over the ocean will lead to cyclonic surface winds out of the north, to northeast on the models. Right now only .150" of QPF falls in this time frame from 12z Monday through 12z Tuesday on the GFS, but this is normally underdone in these situations, especially when the model recognizes a convective precip type, but can't come up with the total precip amount. Delta Ts which are one of the more important parameters as well as wind direction in these events is around 24-27C, which relates to extreme instability parameters. So we have a potentially volatile day 4.5 to 5.5 situation. We shall see in 30 hours what the NAM wants to say about this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 There's some weenie little elevated lake glens up there...and those Aspy river valleys drop off pretty quickly from the surrounding terrain. The rare times they go calm, look out. Annapolis valley is probably another spot like that over central/western NS. Nice zr spot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Any EURO updates for Sunday night into Monday OES potential? The NWS finally acknowledges it today, as being a day 4 event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I saw your tweet too, James. The flow may be conducive for OES if it's more nrly. As we all know, it can be very localized so I wouldn't really get into details right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Learn to drive, get a car, then you can go chase... But asking people to give up their New Years plans for a dime-a-dozen LES just to drive you there doesn't seem too realistic. He can't drive Tubes,drop it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Steve, the NAM is getting into range for Monday, that clipper looks very interesting if it can get underneath SNE. I don't think it will in the end and we have to adjust to an OES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 GFS, EURO and CMC continue to advertise an OES event, stay tuned for further updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I fondly remember CWEAT nailing OE time and time again. Even when models showed nothing, once explaining to Todd Gross the science driving the event. Tempest fugit as some may recall the newsgroup days. Today SPC has a LE variable, BTV runs a local meso ans of course Bufkits. The frequency of occurrence combined with localized interest with such short notice really does not garner popular appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 I remember CWEAT, where is he now? Isn't he clinchwood now or something. THanks Don for the comment, yeah OES is not appealing to everyone but Phil and I pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 I get hit hard on northerly wind trajectory, maybe some NNW winds too. But that is for more so Chatham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I remember CWEAT, where is he now? Isn't he clinchwood now or something. THanks Don for the comment, yeah OES is not appealing to everyone but Phil and I pretty much. Unfortunately he died suddenly this past March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Oh wow I hadn't realized that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 ***12z GFS update *** GFS produces a highly volatile setup one with raked with intrigue and a potential let down if all things don't come together. GFS is getting later and later with the event. Now mainly Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 6"+ possible over Cape Cod, especially Harwich, Chatham, Brewster, Dennis and Yarmouth westward towards the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 GFS continues with OES event on Monday night into Tuesday afternoon Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 I wouldn't have to go to other threads if mets were nice enough to give me their thoughts on the potential in this thread, it is hard when I'm the only one posting in the thread because I'm the only Cape Cod poster Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Dude, its NYE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 So what Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 Weather is the weather Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Might be an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Might be an inch. Thats what she said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Thats what she said Doesn't seem terribly exciting, but maybe he grabs a few inches. Everyone else enjoy cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I wouldn't have to go to other threads if mets were nice enough to give me their thoughts on the potential in this thread, it is hard when I'm the only one posting in the thread because I'm the only Cape Cod poster Sent from my iPhone Hey we get similar meso-scale weather up here and its mentioned sometimes, but I can't blame anyone outside of the immediate area for not caring about 1-3" snow showers. If we get a huge upslope event, there will be discussion about it and likewise I'm sure if you got a true good OES event there would be discussion about it. But you can't expect to make numerous posts in every thread about a minor type of weather that doesn't affect the majority of posters, and expect them to overly care about it. Its ok to mention in passing, but clogging up a lot of different threads over whether 0.07" or 0.12" QPF falls as OES is going to be met with some resistance from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I wouldn't have to go to other threads if mets were nice enough to give me their thoughts on the potential in this thread, it is hard when I'm the only one posting in the thread because I'm the only Cape Cod poster Sent from my iPhone Step back a bit and think. 1) it's nye people got stuff going on. 2) you're posts always are cape cod centric but no one here lives there. 3) we all care about our own backyard first, but most of us talk about possibilities for areas outside of our driveways...you don't seem to do that. 4) people don't have to, Esp mets, respond to your thoughts when YOU want them to. They'll do it on their own time when they see fit. Chill. 5) you bombard us with OES potential with every passing wave or cold front where you get so excited like you're in the tug hill plateau but reality is you may end up with some flakes. We've seen it too many times to take you seriously. 6) posting in multiple threads about the same topic to get attention or responses is unecessary to put it kindly, most of us read first so we see it. We get it. 7) don't take any of this personally, I'm sure you're a good dood and if a huge paralyzing blizzard where to erupt over the Gulf Stream I'd be the first one to send you 1-800 flowers...but dial it back a bit. Most winter weather events are not extreme, they are a dime a dozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 I post about big events that impact everyone, and a lot of people live on Cape Cod I'm just sorry you don't so I post for everyone else without a voice Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I had fish on cape cod,MA once. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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