Quincy Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 An active pattern continues with what looks like another late day/evening event over portions of Texas and vicinity Saturday, followed by a continued threat further east on Sunday. Low pressure is forecast to eject from the Rio Grande into Texas late Saturday, in response to an amplifying trough over the southern Rockies/northern Mexico. Low-level winds out of the south-southeast to southeast will have no problems advecting warm, moist air into much of Texas. The NAM/GFS/Euro all show SBCAPE reaching 1000-2000 J/kg (NAM is even more robust) by late-day. Substantial height falls during the second half of the day will be accompanied by favorable mid-level lapse rates across much of Texas. The best overlap of shear/instability looks to target central to North Texas. Like other events over the past couple of months, the timing is not ideal, nor does the limited amount of daylight help matters. While the NAM shows some convection over North Texas and Oklahoma late in the afternoon, the signal for more robust convection doesn't show up until overnight. Any early storms would probably have more of a hail threat than anything, given lapse rates, but into early evening, I suspect that damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two could also develop. Through the night, a squall line will likely form over West/central Texas and spread east. Any tornado threat will hinge heavily upon storm mode, as any discrete storms out ahead of the line would have the greatest tornado potential. Even still, damaging winds and brief, embedded tornadoes could accompany the line as well. Given poor instability, the severe threat further north into southern/southeastern Oklahoma appears minimal, although I suppose a few damaging wind gusts could impact that area as well. The threat shifts into East Texas into Sunday morning and based on the latest high resolution guidance, particularly the 12z 4km NAM, this could feature an enhanced risk of tornadoes. The surface low is forecast to occlude in northeastern Texas during the afternoon, maintaining a stout, backed flow in the low-levels. Storm mode will be important here, as a tendency toward storms merging into a squall line could mitigate the tornado threat with time. The threat, based on current guidance, appears maximized from East Texas into far southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas and western Louisiana. The setup reminds me of January 24-26, 2012. The 25th was associated with an outbreak of tornadoes from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley, largely within a long, wavy squall line. The caveat is that this event features profiles that appear more saturated and lapse rates look modest at best by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Environment in East-Central TX will be impressive tomorrow per 18Z NAM. If any storms are able to be discrete/semi-discrete and maintain supercellular structures, possibly could see a few tornadoes. Perhaps even an isolated strong tornado, but that threat is pretty conditional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Not sure we'll get anything discrete off this one. I'll be up early Sunday morning and ready to go from CS if anything discrete is forming ahead of the front but I'm not too optimistic about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Got a couple discrete low topped cells S of the Metroplex. The western one looks more impressive and could potentially cause problems for eastern parts of the metro if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Holy smokes at this wording from FWD. Should say that if supercells continue developing later on with increasing deep layer wind fields from what they already are (18z FWD sounding was nasty), things could get ugly. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX208 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015.DISCUSSION...WITH A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRALTEXAS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DISCUSSION FOCUSED ON THE MAINTHREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHINGFROM THE WEST.SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERESTORMS IS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PRIMARILYALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSSTHE REGION.FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING: THE 18Z FWD RAOB INDICATED OVER2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH NOSIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE INHIBITING CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER ANDLOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMSCAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THE 18 UTC FWD RAOB NUMBERS RANKHIGHLY IN THE PARAMETER SPACE SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOESACCORDING TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTERS SEVERE WEATHERENVIRONMENT CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT SUPERCELLTHUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL POSE ASIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE ONLYMISSING INGREDIENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVEREWEATHER OR TORNADO OUTBREAK IS STRONG LIFT OVER THE REGION. LIFTIS GENERALLY WEAK AND LACKS FOCUS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT ISUNCAPPED. EVEN WEAK LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SEVERESTORM/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THISEVENING. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM FOR ALL OFNORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A RESULT. ASSUMING SUPERCELLTHUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THISENVIRONMENT...SIGNIFICANT TO VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THETORNADO THREAT MAY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AFTER SEVERAL HOURSOF COOLING...THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSISTALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Aforementioned 18z sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 3 tor warned cells in NE. Texas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 And now a fourth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Still not seeing any confirmed reports out of these cells, wondering if there is something preventing them from producing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Still not seeing any confirmed reports out of these cells, wondering if there is something preventing them from producing. I'd take a guess and say that low-level shear isn't particularly favorable for the time being. Seeing a lot of rotating wall cloud reports but they're not able to reach the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Thats a nasty looking radar east of Dallas, discrete mode in full bloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The one storm that may affect DFW, is the one west of Waco. It has a decent meso inside it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I think it's storm size. I'm not sure the rfd generated by these tiny cells is enough to get the surface rotation really tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I think it's storm size. I'm not sure the rfd generated by these tiny cells is enough to get the surface rotation really tight. The one near Waco is really starting to grow. If that one manages to produce you may be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The cell near Waco is definitely the one I think looks best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 CC is showing debris on the storm directly south of Dallas on I35E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The cell NW of Waco has been having outflow problems for quite some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 CC is showing debris on the storm directly south of Dallas on I35E. You're right. I think a tornado has tracked west of Italy and Forreston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Confirmed tornado on the Italy storm per nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Tornado warning earlier west of Austin in Burnet/Blanco counties. Our biggest threat down here seems to be from straight line winds and a squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Couplet about to enter Dallas county from the lead cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Although low level helicity is not all that great yet on storms approaching themetroplex they certainly bear watching given that tornado report near Italy, TX. Much better helicity lies just to the nw in the area cells are approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Sirens going off here in Frisco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The tornado warned cell just south of Dallas is looking very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Major rotation south of Ovilla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 606 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 TXC113-139-270045- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0146.000000T0000Z-151227T0045Z/ ELLIS TX-DALLAS TX- 606 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CST FOR NORTH CENTRAL ELLIS AND CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTIES... AT 605 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER OVILLA...OR NEAR GLENN HEIGHTS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 TXC113-139-270045- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0146.000000T0000Z-151227T0045Z/ ELLIS TX-DALLAS TX- 614 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CST FOR NORTH CENTRAL ELLIS AND CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTIES... AT 612 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER DESOTO...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Saw a rotation go right through Plano, just east of downtown on the Addison X band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Reports via Twitter that debris is falling out of the sky and onto I-35 near DeSoto, on the south side of Dallas. There was a visible debris ball on radar at that time as well. Not good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Structures hit in Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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