jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Since it looks like we are heading into a unsettled pattern the next few days,figured we won't derail the winter thread.Slight risk tomorrow for the south DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AND TN VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT. ...ARKLAMISS/TN VALLEY TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WHILE A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LARGELY PARALLEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH TO TN VALLEY/APPALACHIANS. NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF THIS FRONT...A SEASONALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUALLY INCREASE EARLY TODAY WITHIN A SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION AND TN VALLEY. VERY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE OF WHAT MAY BE UPSCALE-GROWING LINEAR CLUSTERS/EMBEDDED BOWS DURING THE DAY...BUT ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE EFFECTIVE-FRONT-ADJACENT WARM SECTOR AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DIURNALLY STEEPEN IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MOST COMMON PROBABLE TODAY...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR. ...ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT... A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE SCENARIO MAY BE FOR RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR/NORTH OF THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD SHIFTING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WHAT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL/POSSIBLY WIND AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING ACROSS THE REGION. A large area of flood watches so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Strong cell came through about 6 this morn and killed the power,not good just when the kids were just about to open their presents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Santa almost took a hit this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas Jax and everyone! Looks like Santa brought a line of storms with him! Tornado Warnings too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas Jax and everyone! Looks like Santa brought a line of storms with him! Tornado Warnings too! Thanks,Merry X-Mas to you as well :)I missed that towards Cookeville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneR4 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 My acurite 5-in-1 has registered 5" of rain so far since this event started this morning. Major flooding everywhere in the area. Absolutely crazy rains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Been a long day of thunder and heavy rain here. I'm at about 3.1" of rain, and I'm in a relatively light area. We have roads washed out, rockslides, and most major streams forecast for moderate to major flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Still rough weather in Northern Alabama and possibly Southern Middle Tennessee. Hope we don't have another tornado outbreak during the Christmas season ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 my backyard weather station is at 3.41 inches since the rains started today. I guess I should consider myself lucky compared to the reports from Alabama and Mississippi. my yard has a river running through it now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Seen a report from a co-op worker that reported 10.79" in Cullman,Al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 It looks like the boundary that started all of this rain yesterday is finally about to push back north of the area. I'm not sure that I ever remember such a long period of sustained convection in winter. 4.5" here, and I feel lucky. It could have been a lot worse, and in some places it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Some strong cells in West Tn.,dont really see a hook but its warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN1203 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 .UPDATE...FOR MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... NOW THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COMPLETELY PUSHEDNORTH OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IT`S TIME TO CUE ON THEDAYTIME HEATING. IN FACT...NASHVILLE AIRPORT HAS ALREADY REACHED74 DEGREES BREAKING TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD WELL BEFORENOON. WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...SEE NO REASON WHYTEMPERATURES WILL NOT EASILY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOSTLY AREAWIDE...SO HAVE BUMPED UP FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERALDEGREES. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSSAREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 NAM is rather bullish for Mid Tn around early afternoon tomorrow.Even looks better than it has been showing further east during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN AND ERN MS AND AL... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA... ...SUMMARY... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY POSE THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THIS LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS MS...TN AND AL FROM THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN ERN MS AND WRN AL AT 15Z TO 18Z SHOW MUCAPE VALUES FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KT. THE WIND PROFILE HAS STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2 KM AGL WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 850 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AT OR ABOVE 400 M2/S2 SHOULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT LATE THIS MORNING FROM SW TN SWD ACROSS NE MS AND NW AL WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR WITH DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE LINE MOVES INTO MIDDLE TN AND ERN AL. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR AND SLIGHT RISK AREA RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DOWNTREND OF THE SEVERE THREAT BY THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY POSE THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ...TN VALLEY INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM MID-SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MS WITH PRECEDING DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE DAY WITHIN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. THIS ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEP SFC CYCLONE WHOSE CENTER IS TRACKING FROM ARKANSAS TO LAKE MICHIGAN...AND IS FORECAST TO OCCLUDE THROUGH THE DAY. MODEST DIURNAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF ONGOING CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 250 TO 1000 J/KG FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE SUSTENANCE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY ACROSS PARTS OF TN...AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE. DESPITE ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. EVEN LESS INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTEND AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL FURTHER MARGINALIZE THE SVR RISK INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0838 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL / WRN-MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281438Z - 281545Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...WILL INCREASE BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SEVERE SQUALL LINE LOCATED OVER NERN MS INTO WRN TN/MO BOOTHEEL REGIONS. A COMPACT/INTENSE MID-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU BY MIDDAY WITH 75 KT H5 FLOW MOVING NEWD FROM MS INTO THE TN VALLEY. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL MASS FLUX/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A 60+ KT LLJ IS CONTRIBUTING TO A DESTABILIZING AIRMASS DESPITE INITIALLY POOR TO MARGINAL BUOYANCY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF 200-400 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLD WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLULAR ELEMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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