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January 2016 Discussion


IWXwx

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IWX regarding the rest of this month:

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK. NCEP/WPC

MODELS AND OTHER MODELS WERE HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING UPSTREAM

BLOCKING WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN

PACIFIC PER CPC/GFS ANALOGS. SO LOTS OF ENERGY WILL BE CUTTING

UNDER THE UPSTREAM RIDGE/BLOCK. THE ANALOG CORRELATION COEFFICIENT

WAS VERY HIGH...ALMOST 0.95...SO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS

MORE STABLE. AN ANALOG FROM JANUARY OF 1978 HAS SHOWN UP FOR THE

PAST 3 NIGHTS IN THIS PATTERN. AN ANALOG FROM JANUARY 1998 WAS

ALSO IN THE 10 TEN WHICH SUGGESTS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BEYOND THE

END OF THE PERIOD.

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St.Clair county under a LES warning. With up to 8" possible. Still a conservative call. That area kills it with LES in the right wind setup. Problem is it almost never happens. Don't be suprised to hear about totals well over 10" around PHN especially around Lakeport.

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