michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Right. Although January and February has always been more up in the air. El Nino usually has its biggest warm impact in December.For those who like just a few good snowstorms or winter blasts, there is TONS of time left. For those of us who enjoy winter for the long season it is, no matter how severe the winter ends up, or how many good snowstorms the region gets (I'm sure there will at least be several more) the time lost from Dec cannot be made up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Who's excited for 40 and rain for all of next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Right. Although January and February has always been more up in the air. El Nino usually has its biggest warm impact in December.Yeah, my worry is like I mentioned doing the warm/wet cold/dry flip over and over. I mean it is fine for lake belts but put this way it isn't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 No gurantee for a clipper train either. Could be a season filled with dusting-2" snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Feeling and looking like deep Winter here. Hoping to salvage the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 Love mesolows when they pan out for location your at. 18zNAMles.png High of 32° here today, but felt more like 20° with that SW wind. Corridor of snow starting to show up better. I'm kinda liking that weenie band through NE Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I'm kinda liking that weenie band through NE Indiana. 0Z NAM 12K has the Weenie band there still, and as far East as Adrian,MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I'm kinda liking that weenie band through NE Indiana. band still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 My one comment is things should favor good inland penetration of the bands for a few hours tomorrow night into early Monday. That's probably overdone, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Something closer range that hasn't really been brought up is... the stuff Thursday night. GFS is hinting at rain falling and freezing on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 12z NAM keeps the band firmly in NE Indiana and SW Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 12z NAM keeps the band firmly in NE Indiana and SW Michigan You know that's it has been a slow start to winter when I'm rooting for the 4km NAM for a 2-3" weenie band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Forecasters were off today...instead of partly sunny, it is in the upper 20s with flurries currently. Widespread cloud deck this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 LOT calling for 1-3" near the lake on the Illinois side with 2-4" toward Chesterton. IWX with advisories for 3-6" for some of their counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 LOT calling for 1-3" near the lake on the Illinois side with 2-4" toward Chesterton. IWX with advisories for 3-6" for some of their counties. I think the LE for around these parts may be non-existent unfortunately. SW Michigan looks to be in a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The Michigan offices need to figure out what they're going to do in LES situations. For the first time in I can't remember GRR actually issued a LES advisory but APX went winter weather right next to them. It just looks silly but maybe this bugs me more than it should Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Just when everyone is ready to write off the 9th-11th potential, the EURO dun' gon' and did this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I think the LE for around these parts may be non-existent unfortunately. SW Michigan looks to be in a great spot. I'd be shocked if there's not minor amounts. Hoping that the convergence axis can shift westward faster than progged but not too optimistic about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 I think the LE for around these parts may be non-existent unfortunately. SW Michigan looks to be in a great spot. The band is coming onshore. it will be interesting to see how the hi res models perform and if a mesolow forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjk254 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 First post on the site! 11:20 am update from Lonnie Fisher of IWX: ISSUED AT 1120 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 COLDER AIR QUICKLY SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LAKE RESPONSE WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS LK MI. 2 DOMINANT BANDS APPEAR TO BE TAKING SHAPE WITH THE FIRST EAST OF MARQUETTE MI TO JUST WEST OF SOUTH HAVEN AND NOW ENTERING PORTIONS OF BERRIEN COUNTY. 2ND STRONGER BAND WAS LOCATED ABOUT 15 TO 20 MILES EAST OF THE FIRST BAND WELL INLAND AND BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT BAND AT LEAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS POINT TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...WHICH COULD REQUIRE A DRASTIC MODIFICATION IN CURRENT GRIDS TO EXPAND HIGHER POPS AND ACCUMS FURTHER EAST WITH POTENTIAL NEED TO EXPAND HEADLINES AS WELL. MAIN SHOW STILL RESIDING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH DECENT INLAND PENETRATION AS MODELS BEGINNING TO STRONGLY SUGGEST A MESO LOW SETUP THAT COULD SEND A ROBUST BAND INTO THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA AND CAUSE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN UPSTREAM EVOLUTION AND RE-EVALUATE WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Just when everyone is ready to write off the 9th-11th potential, the EURO dun' gon' and did this... Cold air is marginal (especially near the surface) but it's a start. Still has the cutter prior to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Just when everyone is ready to write off the 9th-11th potential, the EURO dun' gon' and did this... i posted the wxbell snowfall map in the other thread. Even wxbell couldn't do anything with it (snow-wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 i posted the wxbell snowfall map in the other thread. Even wxbell couldn't do anything with it (snow-wise)Yeah its mostly rain, just like this next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 First post on the site! 11:20 am update from Lonnie Fisher of IWX: ISSUED AT 1120 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 COLDER AIR QUICKLY SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LAKE RESPONSE WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS LK MI. 2 DOMINANT BANDS APPEAR TO BE TAKING SHAPE WITH THE FIRST EAST OF MARQUETTE MI TO JUST WEST OF SOUTH HAVEN AND NOW ENTERING PORTIONS OF BERRIEN COUNTY. 2ND STRONGER BAND WAS LOCATED ABOUT 15 TO 20 MILES EAST OF THE FIRST BAND WELL INLAND AND BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT BAND AT LEAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS POINT TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...WHICH COULD REQUIRE A DRASTIC MODIFICATION IN CURRENT GRIDS TO EXPAND HIGHER POPS AND ACCUMS FURTHER EAST WITH POTENTIAL NEED TO EXPAND HEADLINES AS WELL. MAIN SHOW STILL RESIDING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH DECENT INLAND PENETRATION AS MODELS BEGINNING TO STRONGLY SUGGEST A MESO LOW SETUP THAT COULD SEND A ROBUST BAND INTO THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA AND CAUSE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN UPSTREAM EVOLUTION AND RE-EVALUATE WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE. Welcome. It's nice to have another poster in the IWX area and more specifically on my side of the state. You should be in good shape to pick up a few inches before the band shifts west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Cold air is marginal (especially near the surface) but it's a start. Still has the cutter prior to that. i posted the wxbell snowfall map in the other thread. Even wxbell couldn't do anything with it (snow-wise) To be fair, wxbell maps are based on surface temps being below freezing. So of course if the EURO is slightly above freezing at the surface, those wxbell maps won't show much snow. Either way, at this time frame, a marginal solution like that is workable enough for me. The kinks with precipitation type and temps can be worked out as the storm's time frame gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 To be fair, wxbell maps are based on surface temps being below freezing. So of course if the EURO is slightly above freezing at the surface, those wxbell maps won't show much snow. Either way, at this time frame, a marginal solution like that is workable enough for me. The kinks with precipitation type and temps can be worked out as the storm's time frame gets closer. That track has changed dramatically from run to run since the 'storm' showed up a couple days ago. I have a feeling we won't know anything until that first storm is figured out and what kind of parameters it ends up leaving for storm 2, (assuming there is a storm 2). Seems odd that storm 1 wouldn't pull the cold air and baroclinic zone further southeast....but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I think the LE for around these parts may be non-existent unfortunately. SW Michigan looks to be in a great spot. You are down there around Midway right? I think you'll get some snow in that area. NMM one of the more bullish models. Nice little 1"+ area over Kenosha. Sweet looking maps Powerball! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Breakfast in Port Huron??? Tomorrow morning. Looks like it's possible 6"+ there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 That track has changed dramatically from run to run since the 'storm' showed up a couple days ago. I have a feeling we won't know anything until that first storm is figured out and what kind of parameters it ends up leaving for storm 2, (assuming there is a storm 2). Seems odd that storm 1 wouldn't pull the cold air and baroclinic zone further southeast....but who knows. There are a lot of moving parts at play. If a bit more in the way of wavelength occurs between #1 and #2 (thus we end up with more east-based blocking vs. west-based), I could see the EURO's solution or something that's even stronger and further NW happen. But with the uber-progressive flow we've been stuck with, I doubt this scenario happens. That said, with the uber-progressive flow we've been stuck with, I doubt the above scenario happens. So I'm still leaning towards a suppressed solution for that wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Getting some flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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