Jonger Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 0z Euro last frame. Nothing to say but WOW. That will kick of the lakes and get my @ss out of the house finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Trends today look very positive for SW Michigan and N Central Indiana, but models are really moving away from the LE on the western shores of the Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Cloud cover forecast looks like it's going to bust for the 2nd half of the day. Skies are clearing out nicely with a decent push of dry air aloft and WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Trends today look very positive for SW Michigan and N Central Indiana, but models are really moving away from the LE on the western shores of the Lake Michigan. I still think the western shore gets something as low level flow veers on Monday, though it's looking likely that heavier totals end up in Indiana or Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 And yet people "cancel" winter every day on the boards, a fresh inch of snow and their tune changes Winter is such a long season but people always think of whats going on right now. On Thanksgiving (a week removed from a big snowstorm) I had to field questions "omg are we in for ANOTHER hard winter" then on Christmas (torch) I had to answer "will we have any winter?". Weather...always talked about, never understood. Who are all these winter cancelers you always refer too? I don't know of anyone here who cancelled winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Believe it or not, parts of MI, OH and IN are under a moderate drought (even with the 12/28/15 system). That doesn't look to improve any time soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Believe it or not, parts of MI, OH and IN are under a moderate drought (even with the 12/28/15 system). That doesn't look to improve any time soon... Makes sense. Yearly precip was a bit down and the last 3 months have been on the dry side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Who are all these winter cancelers you always refer too? I don't know of anyone here who cancelled winter yet.I'm not going to play the game of calling people out. You want to pm me and ill be happy to answer. Besides my comment was sort of tongue in cheek, but I guess I need to watch what I say...I have a much shorter leash than others here for whatever reason. So if I post something, it better be 100% literal I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Believe it or not, parts of MI, OH and IN are under a moderate drought (even with the 12/28/15 system). That doesn't look to improve any time soon... It doesnt look anything like drought but its based on precip deficit. I recall how ridiculous it was last March when we had a massive snowpack in place and simultaneously the NWS was worried about elevated flood risk and we were placed in drought on the drought monitor . Winter precip was below normal but it was all locked in a deep snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I'm not going to play the game of calling people out. You want to pm me and ill be happy to answer. Besides my comment was sort of tongue in cheek, but I guess I need to watch what I say...I have a much shorter leash than others here for whatever reason. So if I post something, it better be 100% literal I guess. I was just wondering. Don't know anything about your short leash or your requirement to be literal, I just can't think of anyone here...well maybe other than that torchagaedon (?) dude....who has forecasted a non winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 As far as lake effect, the 4 km NAM is getting into range. It shows something that was being advertised on other runs yesterday...verbatim, much of the lift is at the bottom of the dgz or below. Here's Gary and Midway Airport... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Getting some melting of the sleet that was left on driveways and sidewalks. Otherwise this stuff is like a glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Aurora pic from Wisconsin Very nice pics. I went out for a very short bit NYE around 10pm. Wind was relentless out in the open country, so it was very cold to be out. Clouds were covering most of the sky, so I could only see a little faint green in the middle of the pic above the horizon. Not too impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 LOT is saying 1-3" near the lake in IL on Monday. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BECOME MOREPROGRESSIVE...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING SHARPENING OVER THE ERN CONUSAND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THESFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPERMISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A FETCH OF COLDNLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...SETTING UP ASCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR A PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. MUCHOF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING ALONGTHE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...FOCUSING A LAKE EFFECT BAND. THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND IS EXPECTED TOSLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...BRINGINGACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO NWRN INDIANA MONDAY MORNING ANDTHEN SHIFT INTO NERN ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NEAR THE LAKEFROM AROUND CHESTERTON...INDIANA TO EVANSTON ILLINOIS. WHILE THEHIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR THELAKE...LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE WESTERN ANDSOUTHERN SUBURBS OF THE CHICAGO AREA IN NERN IL AND ACROSS LAKE ANDPORTER COUNTIES IN NWRN INDIANA. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURECROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...THELAKE EFFECT PLUME WILL DISINTEGRATE WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING TOSELY AND THEN SLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. 4km NAM has a nice mesolow looking feature on the western shore. 18z coming in now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Makes sense. Yearly precip was a bit down and the last 3 months have been on the dry side. AnnDec15PNormMRCC.png OND15PNormMRCC.png That darker green could be over all of Lake County really. I had 116% of normal precipitation last year. Can't believe southern MI is really that dry given the storm earlier this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The drought is only based of precip deficit. Not actual soil moisture, lake levels or any other metric people care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The drought is only based of precip deficit. Not actual soil moisture, lake levels or any other metric people care about. Lake levels shouldn't have anything to do with drought maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Soil moisture is actually one of the factors...click the link http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/AboutUs/ClassificationScheme.aspx Drought intensity categories are based on five key indicators, numerous supplementary indicators including drought impacts, and local reports from more than 350 expert observers around the country. The accompanying drought severity classification table shows the ranges for each indicator for each dryness level. Because the ranges of the various indicators often don't coincide, the final drought category tends to be based on what the majority of the indicators show and on local observations. The analysts producing the map also weigh the indices according to how well they perform in various parts of the country and at different times of the year. Additional indicators are often needed in the West, where winter snowfall in the mountains has a strong bearing on water supplies. It is this combination of the best available data, local observations and experts’ best judgment that makes the U.S. Drought Monitor more versatile than other drought indicators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Thanks to the afternoon sunshine, temps overachieved a bit with the high approaching 40*F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Today's sun also killed the little bit of dust crap left over from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Getting some melting of the sleet that was left on driveways and sidewalks. Otherwise this stuff is like a glacier.I have to get used to you not being in LAF. How much he sleet pack do you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I have to get used to you not being in LAF. How much he sleet pack do you have? About 1.5" on average. It's not even though as there are spots with little or nothing, especially near houses and trees. Lost a little bit on the night of the storm when it poked into the low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Interesting... hires_ref_chicago_43.png Cool image. Mesolows could definitely screw with the band orientation/placement as we've seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I have to get used to you not being in LAF. How much he sleet pack do you have? I didn't realize that either..... Just looked up Griffith. Ok Hoosier, did you move for the LES? If so, you win weenie of the decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I didn't realize that either..... Just looked up Griffith. Ok Hoosier, did you move for the LES? If so, you win weenie of the decade I would've gone farther east if I moved for the lake effect. This area can get it but not like being in the real Lake Michigan snowbelt. Had been thinking about moving for a while and then some personal stuff sealed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I would've gone farther east if I moved for the lake effect. This area can get it but not like being in the real Lake Michigan snowbelt. Had been thinking about moving for a while and then some personal stuff sealed it. Well if you had to move, at least it was in the right direction wrt snow. Imagine if you had to move to the sub's climo hell, (aka Columbus. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I was just wondering. Don't know anything about your short leash or your requirement to be literal, I just can't think of anyone here...well maybe other than that torchagaedon (?) dude....who has forecasted a non winter.Yeah I haven't seen anyone cancel winter either, I mean everyone has been calling it as we see it so far, rain and warm to cold and dry back to rain and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yeah I haven't seen anyone cancel winter either, I mean everyone has been calling it as we see it so far, rain and warm to cold and dry back to rain and warm. Right. Although January and February has always been more up in the air. El Nino usually has its biggest warm impact in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Interesting... hires_ref_chicago_43.png Love mesolows when they pan out for location your at. High of 32° here today, but felt more like 20° with that SW wind. Corridor of snow starting to show up better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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