on_wx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 January opens with minor lake effect snowfall here currently around 1.5" since 9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Close to 5" so far today. Beautiful les snowfall. Depth right around 12". Looks good up here for riding jonger. Boyne area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Still looks like a potential accumulating lake effect snow event around southern Lake Michigan Sunday into Monday. There's been a trend toward slightly better moisture depth/inversion heights. Delta T looks very good, in the upper teens to perhaps around 20-22C at peak. Do have some concern about possible transient nature of the band so I'm reluctant to go too big on totals. Still a few days out but currently thinking widespread 1-3" amounts around the lake from southwest Michigan into northwest Indiana and northeast Illinois, with probably some higher amounts (3-6?) where the band can linger longest. Do think the band will still be fairly organized as it swings westward into northwest Indiana/northeast Illinois on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 10.2" of new snow 9" snow depth QPF 1.11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Still looks like a potential accumulating lake effect snow event around southern Lake Michigan Sunday into Monday. There's been a trend toward slightly better moisture depth/inversion heights. Delta T looks very good, in the upper teens to perhaps around 20-22C at peak. Do have some concern about possible transient nature of the band so I'm reluctant to go too big on totals. Still a few days out but currently thinking widespread 1-3" amounts around the lake from southwest Michigan into northwest Indiana and northeast Illinois, with probably some higher amounts (3-6?) where the band can linger longest. Do think the band will still be fairly organized as it swings westward into northwest Indiana/northeast Illinois on Monday. I've been watching this closely as well. Band does look very transient, and also looks pretty fast moving. Encouraging to see it on the GFS, GGEM, and Euro. Oddly enough, the NAM seems least bullish with this. I'd be more inclined to think lower totals across NW Indiana and NE Illinois, probably up to an inch at most. Still very nice and refreshing. Thinking they can pull off some higher totals in NE Indiana and SW Michigan, on the order of 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I've been watching this closely as well. Band does look very transient, and also looks pretty fast moving. Encouraging to see it on the GFS, GGEM, and Euro. Oddly enough, the NAM seems least bullish with this. I'd be more inclined to think lower totals across NW Indiana and NE Illinois, probably up to an inch at most. Still very nice and refreshing. Thinking they can pull off some higher totals in NE Indiana and SW Michigan, on the order of 1-3. I think the organization/snowfall intensity will make up for the transient nature to some degree...at least enough to drop fairly widespread 1-3" amounts near the lake. Also will have to watch for possible mesolow development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I think the organization/snowfall intensity will make up for the transient nature to some degree...at least enough to drop fairly widespread 1-3" amounts near the lake. Also will have to watch for possible mesolow development. It's xertainly something to watch. I like these little LE events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Had some nice dendrites at home, down here at work the flake size is much more subdued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Very nice video and pictures Buffalo Weather. Glad you got the LES machine turned on over your area again. Looks like you are happy! Over here now, the NAM is showing a decent setup for LES early Monday morning/overnight Sunday. Looks to start over in Michigan and swing westward. An actually plume starts to take shape on simulated radar. Dry layer on the NAM looks higher than earlier GFS runs. Winds stacked up and out of the NE. CMC has a good plume signature as well. Better into extreme NW IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Very nice video and pictures Buffalo Weather. Glad you got the LES machine turned on over your area again. Over here now, the NAM is showing a decent setup for LES early Monday morning/overnight Sunday. Looks to start over in Michigan and swing westward. An actually plume starts to take shape on simulated radar. Dry layer on the NAM looks higher than earlier GFS runs. Winds stacked up and out of the NE. CMC has a good plume signature as well. Better into extreme NW IN. The NAM has trended better with inversion heights since yesterday for sure. GFS is actually a bit more favorable than the NAM. If we can back the incoming mid level trough a bit farther west, then moisture depth/inversion heights would be even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Boyne area? Was at Boyne Mountain (Boyne Falls). Left just before noon...a good 6-7" had fallen and it was ripping to about just south of Gaylord. I'm willing to bet a couple more fell after I left. Little tidbit about snow squalls in Lower Michigan. All the way south to about just north of Standish couple inches had fell but once u got to Standish through Bay City/Saginaw all the way to about Mt Morris. Little to no snow had fallen. Then once you got south of 475 snow picked up again. Then it really showed a decent snowfall from Holly to about the Sashabaw Exit. Got home and about 2.5" had fallen at my house. This area really is a "mini snowbelt" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The NAM has trended better with inversion heights since yesterday for sure. GFS is actually a bit more favorable than the NAM. If we can back the incoming mid level trough a bit farther west, then moisture depth/inversion heights would be even better. 18z coming in even better. Plume is near the western shoreline most of the day Monday. Looks like a good dose of snow in Western MI also. Just need to get the mid level trough to line up better, like you said. Alek would be stacking flakes like a boss again. 4km NAM in range for Michigan now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 18z coming in even better. Plume is near the western shoreline most of the day Monday. Looks like a good dose of snow in Western MI also. Just need to get the mid level trough to line up better, like you said. Alek would be stacking flakes like a boss again. 4km NAM in range for Michigan now. 18z NAM definitely looks much better for NW Indiana and NE Illinois...even gets you in on the flakes a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 18z NAM definitely looks much better for NW Indiana and NE Illinois...even gets you in on the flakes a bit. You do well when the winds are NNE below 25°. Here is takes a touch more of a easterly component. I like when I see the winds more easterly blowing offshore of Michigan and there's a convergence of almost straight N winds on the shoreline here. Hopefully the trend stays the same and we have something to track this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Aurora pic from Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Here's a screenshot from the 18z NAM bufkit for a location over Lake Michigan. Using a lake temp of 44 degrees, lake induced CAPE peaks over 600 J/kg with lake induced equilibrium heights in excess of 10,000 feet at 14z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Sweet Aurora pics.^ First sunset of the new year was a colorful one. Sweet sounding Hoosier. Looking like Delta T values around 20°C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Sweet Aurora pics.^ First sunset of the new year was a colorful one. 20160101_163757.jpg Sweet sounding Hoosier. Looking like Delta T values around 20°C. Yeah...could peak a bit higher than 20C depending on how cold it gets at 850 mb. I used a lake temp of 44F...I think that is fairly representative as the areas close to shore are generally in the upper 30s and some pockets farther out in the middle of the lake may be a bit warmer than 44F. Here's another image. This is from GYY, showing omega and the snow growth zone. The omega bullseye is at/just below the bottom of the DGZ but still have nice lift in the dgz. Barring significant changes, I think this type of setup may be capable of 1-2" per hour type rates at its peak so it could pile up pretty fast if it manages to stay over any one spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 You do well when the winds are NNE below 25°. Here is takes a touch more of a easterly component. I like when I see the winds more easterly blowing offshore of Michigan and there's a convergence of almost straight N winds on the shoreline here. Hopefully the trend stays the same and we have something to track this weekend. I sure hope we can get some lake effect snows from this. All of our "events" off the lake this year have been DOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I sure hope we can get some lake effect snows from this. All of our "events" off the lake this year have been DOA. There hasn't been any arctic air this winter. My low in the month of December was 22F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 There hasn't been any arctic air this winter. My low in the month of December was 22F. True enough. We have had several events that were supposed to give us Lake enhanced snows that never came to fruition. Geos' side of the lake has been doing better this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yeah...could peak a bit higher than 20C depending on how cold it gets at 850 mb. I used a lake temp of 44F...I think that is fairly representative as the areas close to shore are generally in the upper 30s and some pockets farther out in the middle of the lake may be a bit warmer than 44F. Here's another image. This is from GYY, showing omega and the snow growth zone. The omega bullseye is at/just below the bottom of the DGZ but still have nice lift in the dgz. Barring significant changes, I think this type of setup may be capable of 1-2" per hour type rates at its peak so it could pile up pretty fast if it manages to stay over any one spot. Untitled.png Yeah I see that pocket there. True enough. We have had several events that were supposed to give us Lake enhanced snows that never came to fruition. Geos' side of the lake has been doing better this year. That's crazy that I've had more snow than you. Goes to show how much of your seasonal snowfall tally is from LES. 28/17 today, definitely felt like winter. Edit: LOT mentioning the LES chances. Not ready to jump and say any total yet though. SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA FIRST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...COLDER AIRMASS WILL SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...DID LOWER TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT THIS COLD WILL HAVE WILL BE FOR AN INCREASE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE LAKE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE SITUATED SUCH THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL STAY EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE WEAKER DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO PORTER COUNTY ON SUNDAY AND SO HAVE SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME. IT DOES APPEAR THAT LATER IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THAT CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING DELTA TS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE THE TREND AND WHILE SYNOPTIC LIFT RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING STOUT MID LEVEL WAVE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE VEERING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AND SO BROUGHT POPS INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN ALSO INTO AREAS IN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. DID WANT TO INCREASE POPS/WORDING AND QPF/SNOW WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND HAVE DONE SO...BUT COULD SEE POPS AND QPF/SNOW INCREASED FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF ISSUANCES AS CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND COVERAGE INCREASE. RODRIGUEZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yeah I see that pocket there. That's crazy that I've had more snow than you. Goes to show how much of your seasonal snowfall tally is from LES. 28/17 today, definitely felt like winter. Sure is! I'd say that 60 inches of our average 100 inches comes from the lake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Aurora pic from Wisconsin Wow, I missed this. Been sick and had to hit the sack early. Beautiful shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Wow, 0z NAM parks a LES plume/or at least a broken line along the western shoreline of Lake Michigan for 10-12 hours! 4km NAM has an interesting meso low feature over the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Geos, why does the precip map from the 0z NAM show nothing along the Lakeside areas of the western shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Geos, why does the precip map from the 0z NAM show nothing along the Lakeside areas of the western shore? Was just going to point that out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The 0z NAM looks like it only has a brief window of NNE winds and favorable conditions for lake effect Monday morning, which is why it only shows minimal amounts along the Wisconsin/NE IL shoreline. With the caveat that the 12km NAM will almost always under-do lake effect related QPF, I'd definitely rather be in NW IN if I was downwind of Lake Michigan for the upcoming event than on the western side of the lake. The winds appear to go NNE on the backside of the upper level trough when large scale subsidence and drier air move overhead...not the best setup...maybe someone gets lucky near Chicago and gets under the band for a few hours before it diminishes by Monday afternoon and sees 3"...higher amounts probably would be in Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The 0z NAM looks like it only has a brief window of NNE winds and favorable conditions for lake effect Monday morning, which is why it only shows minimal amounts along the Wisconsin/NE IL shoreline. With the caveat that the 12km NAM will almost always under-do lake effect related QPF, I'd definitely rather be in NW IN if I was downwind of Lake Michigan for the upcoming event than on the western side of the lake. The winds appear to go NNE on the backside of the upper level trough when large scale subsidence and drier air move overhead...not the best setup...maybe someone gets lucky near Chicago and gets under the band for a few hours before it diminishes by Monday afternoon and sees 3"...higher amounts probably would be in Indiana. The tradeoff with what you mentioned is that it looks like a window where lake-850 mb delta T should be increasing a bit even after inversion heights start coming down, so it will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The tradeoff with what you mentioned is that it looks like a window where lake-850 mb delta T should be increasing a bit even after inversion heights start coming down, so it will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. Just looking at a couple of soundings off of the 0z NAM for Monday when the band would be trying to push into SE WI/NE IL, moisture depth isn't great, but you have a saturated layer with absolutely unstable lapse rates up to about 5k feet and through a good chunk of the DGZ. I think the marginal inversion heights/moisture depth would keep things from getting out of hand, but the 18z soundings from under the band look similar, so I could see a band that produces nice, very high ratio dendrites that add up relatively fast. I still like my 3" number max for the west side of the lake given the short duration and marginal moisture depth/inversion heights, but I'm never against bumping up if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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