michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Last CFS run for January continues the recent flip toward suggesting a warmer than average month. Though if it occurs, it obviously should be much more pedestrian than December. Quite a dry look as well with what looks like a very suppressed STJ. There are some Nino winters that have had the super suppressed STJ in January, so I wouldn't say it can't happen, but I tend to not trust the precip output as much as temps. CFSv2.NaT2m.20151231.201601.gif CFSv2.NaPrec.20151231.201601.gif I have no problem with a 1C or even 2C anomaly. It's funny though how the cfs was hell bent on mega torch Jan for the first 3 weeks of dec, then flipped markedly colder, and is now in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I have no problem with a 1C or even 2C anomaly. It's funny though how the cfs was hell bent on mega torch Jan for the first 3 weeks of dec, then flipped markedly colder, and is now in the middle. Something in the +2-4F range would be a lot more workable than December, when you were just hoping to get lucky with a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Expansive warmth still on lake Michigan We have a plume sighting at the end of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Sounding for Michigan City at the time of the plume. Surprised it is showing a plume given that dry layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Happy New Years all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Happy New Year everyone!Here's to active weather year! Starting off the year closer to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Finally getting some LES snowfall on this trip. 2-3" of it better then notta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 Latest NAM shows our MI and NE OH peeps cashing in on a nickle and dime event Sunday night/Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Happy New Year to all... True winter appears likely in the coming week or so. Actually seeing 0 degree temps showing up and 6" of snow on the GFS soundings thru 384 hours. It's a start. I'd love to see a brutal 3 or 4 weeks and then flip the switch to an early spring. Placing my order now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Happy New Year to all... True winter appears likely in the coming week or so. Actually seeing 0 degree temps showing up and 6" of snow on the GFS soundings thru 384 hours. It's a start. I'd love to see a brutal 3 or 4 weeks and then flip the switch to an early spring. Placing my order now. I too wouldn't mind an early warm spring, something similar to 2010, that was a perfect spring. The last 3 spring 2013-15 have been cold, wet, and even snowy. Seems those years we made a flip from winter to summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Mood snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The new year finally woke the lake up. This is just from overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Thundersnow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Awesome band going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Thundersnow! How many times per year do you see Thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 How many times per year do you see Thundersnow? 2-4 on average, the last 2 years 5-6 per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Finally getting some LES snowfall on this trip. 2-3" of it better then notta. Close to 5" so far today. Beautiful les snowfall. Depth right around 12". Looks good up here for riding jonger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 2-4 on average, the last 2 years 5-6 per year. Looking at the latest radar and based on your reports, you would think BUF needs to flip flop those Warnings and Advisories for the Erie and Ontario LES belts. LES storm chasing in your region is definitely going to be on my bucket list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Looking at the latest radar and based on your reports, you would think BUF needs to flip flop those Warnings and Advisories for the Erie and Ontario LES belts. LES storm chasing in your region is definitely going to be on my bucket list. They really need to, closing in on 10" already with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Picture from the backyard. That thing in the back is 15" high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Finally getting some LES snowfall on this trip. 2-3" of it better then notta. Im headed to the Marquette area Feb 20-23, I may go somewhere in late Jan too. Havent been up north in 3 years with our deep snow, so why not take TWO trips this winter? Jealous of the white up north but happy because it was NEEDED to start their based. Mood flakes here but no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 Picture from the backyard. That thing in the back is 15" high. Hamburg = Pound Town Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Picked up 1/2" of snow this morning (so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Hamburg = Pound Town Congrats! Thanks man! Great way to start off the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Video! Was snowing harder just before this but missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Few Pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Pushing 1.5" of fresh snow here. Beautiful snowfall. Looks like northern burbs win again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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