IWXwx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I started the November discussion thread and things got much more active, along with some snow for many in the subforum. Hoosier then started the December thread and we ended up with anomalous warmth and severe. So I'm starting the January thread to try to get us back toward normal. Although it doesn't look super active to begin the month, all signs are pointing to a trend back toward normal tempwise. As someone else mentioned earlier, the first few days look to have a northwest flow developing, which may be conducive to a couple of clippers dropping in. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Winter looks to set in right at the beginning of the month. Not sure how big storm prospects are (not that good to start the month at least), but when this region is in a winter temp pattern we can always count on clippers, les, & other small disturbances to give us some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 When the cold settles in its going to be like getting off an airplane from a southern region. The lakes are full of warmth and with the juiced tropical jet. While at the moment things look supressed in time I'm sure things could get interesting. I wonder what records will be broken this year??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 zzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Winter looks to set in right at the beginning of the month. Not sure how big storm prospects are (not that good to start the month at least), but when this region is in a winter temp pattern we can always count on clippers, les, & other small disturbances to give us some snow. Yeah those small scale systems are nice. If you don't get hit by one, then there is usually another one already on the radar to track. Need a storm to come along at some point and pull some lake moisture in. Lake enhancement would be on steroids given an arctic air mass is in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Yeah those small scale systems are nice. If you don't get hit by one, then there is usually another one already on the radar to track. Need a storm to come along at some point and pull some lake moisture in. Lake enhancement would be on steroids given an arctic air mass is in place. A lot of the models/ensembles show a clipper in the Jan 2-4 timeframe. Tune back in in about a week if you want any idea where it may track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 This is a pattern where snow fans realize they live on the wrong side of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 This is a pattern where snow fans realize they live on the wrong side of the lake. Yep, jumping from warm and wet to cold and dry, +PNA is going to make this pattern completely useless outside of the lake belts or maybe KY/S OH if they get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Hoping the +PNA can relax at times and let some systems come north. It on it's way up now and will be quite high, then it looks to relax a little towards the 5th. Sometimes the Clippers really work out well. At least with them you rarely have to worry about rain/snow lines and zr and ip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Hoping the +PNA can relax at times and let some systems come north. It on it's way up now and will be quite high, then it looks to relax a little towards the 5th. Sometimes the Clippers really work out well. At least with them you rarely have to worry about rain/snow lines and zr and ip. As said in the winter ( mid/long range ) thread BOTH the PNA and NAO need to stay neutral. Just need the EPO to be negative. The idea is to have the trough centered over the Plains ( not Great Lakes too far east or West coast too far west as we see currently ) and or front range and this is especially true with a juiced up southern jet. Clippers rarely do jack here imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'm never going to worry about a suppressed pattern, I think too many people are worried about having the perfect setup. I can tell you what pattern I don't want. The one we just had. That was a complete waste of one of the DJF months. If I wanted that weather regularly, I'd move to Memphis. At least I'd have access to better BBQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'm never going to worry about a suppressed pattern, I think too many people are worried about having the perfect setup. I can tell you what pattern I don't want. The one we just had. That was a complete waste of one of the DJF months. If I wanted that weather regularly, I'd move to Memphis. At least I'd have access to better BBQ. Agree. People always worry about the perfect setup. A lot of times the worrying is for naught, sometimes it's justified. Either way I will take my chances with winter air over what we just had.I like clippers. We used to clean up with them in the 1990s. Since then our winters have gotten colder and much snowier but for some reason we get less clippers (or so it would seem). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Agree. People always worry about the perfect setup. A lot of times the worrying is for naught, sometimes it's justified. Either way I will take my chances with winter air over what we just had. I like clippers. We used to clean up with them in the 1990s. Since then our winters have gotten colder and much snowier but for some reason we get less clippers (or so it would seem). Most of the so called clippers we have had have either gone to our south or too far north. So yeah we have had less of them around here atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Most of the so called clippers we have had have either gone to our south or too far north. So yeah we have had less of them around here atleast. I guess it just depends on what you want. It seems like an eternity since we got to watch a clipper move through and trigger nasty LES over SW lower Michigan. It was probably last year, but with this winter ongoing it's easy to forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I guess it just depends on what you want. It seems like an eternity since we got to watch a clipper move through and trigger nasty LES over SW lower Michigan. It was probably last year, but with this winter ongoing it's easy to forget. Nov may have had one but i think you have to go back to Feb 2014? Jan and Feb ( 2014 ) had a couple of decent ones but that has been the exception vs the rule since i moved here back in 04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Most of the so called clippers we have had have either gone to our south or too far north. So yeah we have had less of them around here atleast.I know you weren't around here in the 1990s...but this was how I remember a 90s winter. Taste of snow in nov. Dec would suck. Feb would suck. Jan would be loaded with clippers and March would have a few clippers too. Either Jan or Mar would have our one big snowstorm of the year.Is that how it ALWAYS was? Of course not . But that's what sticks in the memory bank. Bottom line clippers can be frequent here when storms are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I feel like this area has always done well with Clippers. And come to think of it, in the last five years a lot of them have impacted this area and then gone on towards N IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I myself love the clipper train. C-6" of fluff, EZ on equipment and generally a crunchy snow. Great make work systems and very profitable with limited risk from slip and falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I feel like this area has always done well with Clippers. And come to think of it, in the last five years a lot of them have impacted this area and then gone on towards N IN. Yeah, certainly seems that way. At least it looks like a pattern change, as warm/wet isn't fun for any slow lover. Get the colder air in place, then let's break off one of these deep lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Uh oh....CFS v.2 got the memo that winter is coming....LMBO:Question is....will all the warm weenies who've tortured winter weather lovers with CFS image keep posting & tweeting them now. :) :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 More memos.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 AO ready to go back positive just in time for our 'pattern change' to really kick in? (Courtesy WxBell) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 AO ready to go back positive just in time for our 'pattern change' to really kick in? (Courtesy WxBell) Bear with me, as I don't understand the graph. It shows most members tanking around the 6th with a slow rise afterwards. While the mean levels out slightly negative before rising sharply positive. What else is figured into this and am I reading it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Crickets.gif Fantastic stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Bear with me, as I don't understand the graph. It shows most members tanking around the 6th with a slow rise afterwards. While the mean levels out slightly negative before rising sharply positive. What else is figured into this and am I reading it right? the colored lines represent model run times, ie 00z 12/29, 12z 12/28. etc. The black one is the latest run, (00z 12/31). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Last CFS run for January continues the recent flip toward suggesting a warmer than average month. Though if it occurs, it obviously should be much more pedestrian than December. Quite a dry look as well with what looks like a very suppressed STJ. There are some Nino winters that have had the super suppressed STJ in January, so I wouldn't say it can't happen, but I tend to not trust the precip output as much as temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 GFS still hinting at the potential for a weak lake effect band sweeping across NW Indiana on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 GFS still hinting at the potential for a weak lake effect band sweeping across NW Indiana on Monday. Yeah I brought that up in the December thread yesterday, but it should be here. Some model differences on how cold it gets at 850 mb. The 00z ECMWF was really bullish and much colder than previous runs with temps dropping to near -18C over southern Lake Michigan. Even going more conservative with something like -12C would yield delta T well into the teens given mid lake temperatures probably still in the mid 40s by the time it begins. Some limiting factors (moisture depth/inversion heights) but enough favorable to suggest accumulating snow quite likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 the colored lines represent model run times, ie 00z 12/29, 12z 12/28. etc. The black one is the latest run, (00z 12/31). Gotcha. I wasn't quite awake when I was looking at it this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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