Late December miracle early next week!?

[Randy4Confluence]

Most interior SNE never sniffs 32 if Euro is right

No snow for you son.

[moneypitmike]

Yes, but he said an earlier change over than usual in SWFE...I know what causes it, by why is it earlier than usual here in this case??

Sounds like a manifestation of some defense mechanism born of anxiety, to me lol

It looks like the precipitation will continue a fair amoubt after the changeover. That's not typically the case here as we tend to shut off before much in the way of taint.

That's how I'm reading it (never a good thing). Also at this time frame it'll undoubtedly look different over the coming days.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It looks like the precipitation will continue a fair amoubt after the changeover. That's not typically the case here as we tend to shut off before much in the way of taint.

That's how I'm reading it (never a good thing). Also at this time frame it'll undoubtedly look different over the coming days.

Oh, I thought you meant that the changeover would occur more quickly.

[CoastalWx]

Pretty big change ion the GFS. Low is faster ejecting out. Looks like a colder solution at 12z.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just looking early on at the GFS.... It looks like this will be a colder solution than the last few runs

[CoastalWx]

Decent few to several inches near BOS verbatim. Pretty much all snow near MHT. Maybe ends as a few pingers.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Interesting...kinda cmc ish?

[UnionWeatherWx]

Just looking early on at the GFS.... It looks like this will be a colder solution than the last few runs

Just looking early on at the GFS.... It looks like this will be a colder solution than the last few runs

At hr114 it's snowing down near BWI/DC.

[CoastalWx]

At hr114 it's snowing down near BWI/DC.

 

 

Maybe a coating before pellets. 

[Bostonseminole]

general 6-8"

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

GFS looks like a good few inches for pretty much everyone in SNE with more north obviously.

[dryslot]

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah that faster ejection of the energy really works in tandem with the high position. High holds stout and you get a colder solution.

[SnowMan]

I would take a severe ice storm vs. snow....any chance for that?

[dendrite]

I would take a severe ice storm vs. snow....any chance for that?

No

[moneypitmike]

 

I like.  That's how I envision the typical SWFE with respect to the warmth/qpf shut-off.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I would hate to have ice over snow.

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM came in pretty cold again. Mostly snow along and north of pike.

[CoastalWx]

GGEM came in pretty cold again. Mostly snow along and north of pike.

 

Little cold tuck after too.

[ORH_wxman]

Little cold tuck after too.

Regardless of the mid-levels, it is starting to look like the typical CAD interior spots may not go above freezing. Still a bit early to be totally confident but you get the sense that even the more west solutions are going to squeeze a sfc reflection south of SNE.

Of course if this keeps trending more stout with the high, then we're talking more snow or everyone in SNE.

[dendrite]

Probably not a good idea to direct link images from their site. I'm assuming those are part of the paysite.

[dryslot]

Probably not a good idea to direct link images from their site. I'm assuming those are part of the paysite.

 

I removed them but i thought that posting the Euro was/is the Issue

[CoastalWx]

Regardless of the mid-levels, it is starting to look like the typical CAD interior spots may not go above freezing. Still a bit early to be totally confident but you get the sense that even the more west solutions are going to squeeze a sfc reflection south of SNE.

Of course if this keeps trending more stout with the high, then we're talking more snow or everyone in SNE.

 

I would agree. It's going to be hard to sniff 32 with such a cold antecedent airmass in late December. 

[CoastalWx]

Classic in and out look. 6 hr thump. 

[dryslot]

Models typically do this when you have a cold high to the north, The model runs get colder as we get closer into the event

[CoastalWx]

Models typically do this when you have a cold high to the north, The model runs get colder as we get closer into the event

 I actually think the bigger driver of whether models have a colder solution or not is how fast that low ejects out. The confluence in Canada is also moving east, so you want those features to sort of come closer together. Not phase, but keep the confluence there a bit longer, but most especially...a faster ejection of the ULL in Texas.  It's quite evident when comparing the 6z run from 12z. 

[dendrite]

I removed them but i thought that posting the Euro was/is the Issue

You posted direct links from SV meaning anyone can have the link now. Upload them here or to an image site instead.

[dryslot]

 I actually think the bigger driver of whether models have a colder solution or not is how fast that low ejects out. The confluence in Canada is also moving east, so you want those features to sort of come closer together. Not phase, but keep the confluence there a bit longer, but most especially...a faster ejection of the ULL in Texas.  It's quite evident when comparing the 6z run from 12z. 

 

In this case its true as your trying to time the SW with a retreating high to the north rather then building in and holding its ground, This looks like it will come down to timing of the SW ejecting out of the south, The slower solutions want to travel more to the west, But it does seem like we are starting to get more of a secondary development under SNE as well

[dryslot]

You posted direct links from SV meaning anyone can have the link now. Upload them here or to an image site instead.

 

ok

[mahk_webstah]

Typical swfe. Qpf will ramp up as we get closer and weenies will start to talk about lollies to 15, then reality will set in and we will have a 6-10 inch ending with glaze, and a great start to winter.