ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think/believe a serious ice and sleet issue takes place... That wind is going lock N west of a obvious coastal boundary and there is going to be a bout a 10 F differential across 5 or less miles extending from about west Essex or far NE Middlesex straight down to almost PVD! has the world gone mad? seriously...old lessons and known climo seems to be escaping the meme here for that type of NEW polar high and deepressed DPs advecting carte blanche below these IB pulses... my goodness. we'll see i guess It wouldn't shock me if N&W of 495 doesn't see >32F until the event is basically over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 ...A bit of frozen with a whole bunch of meh coming my way. Rather would have Santa and mid-60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 If GFS is right, it rips N of the pike between 09z and 12z, just north of the 850-800 warm front...you can see the bent back heights a bit. But it's the coldest model right now keeping even ORH-BOS all snow through 12z. Yeah seems like GFS gets it going right near BOS. Other models are further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 IP is my concern. Planes do not go anywhere with that. Even if it's like 33-34, so cold aloft..PL makes it to ground. I'm not on shift, but sort of looking at it from the sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 It wouldn't shock me if N&W of 495 doesn't see >32F until the event is basically over. Yea, I find it hard to believe we would undergo any serious icing here.....line is usually about 5 miles to my nw, near N Billerica.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Pa sub forum guy looking for info.................My daughter and other family is site seeing in the York Beach, Kennebunkport area what do you expect there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah seems like GFS gets it going right near BOS. Other models are further north. GFs is weird, it has an initial weenie band developing almost over us around midnight tonight and then it lifts north into CNE and we almost get nothing for about 2-3 hours...then a second wave of intense WCB precip hits us between 09z-12z and gives several inches of snow before flipping. I wouldn't buy that scenario given other model guidance, but it's interesting in how it bends back the 850 WF for a time to really assist in the lift after 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think/believe a serious ice and sleet issue takes place... That wind is going lock N west of a obvious coastal boundary and there is going to be a bout a 10 F differential across 5 or less miles extending from about west Essex or far NE Middlesex straight down to almost PVD! has the world gone mad? seriously...old lessons and known climo seems to be escaping the meme here for that type of NEW polar high and deepressed DPs advecting carte blanche below these IB pulses... my goodness. we'll see i guess When the same people are saying the ground is too warm, what do you expect? Even the euro is too quick I think to warm temps up, and it makes the most sense right now. Until then, prove me wrong is my attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 GFs is weird, it has an initial weenie band developing almost over us around midnight tonight and then it lifts north into CNE and we almost get nothing for about 2-3 hours...then a second wave of intense WCB precip hits us between 09z-12z and gives several inches of snow before flipping. I wouldn't buy that scenario given other model guidance, but it's interesting in how it bends back the 850 WF for a time to really assist in the lift after 09z. I was hoping that initial band would happen earlier and that lull would be further south. That's how it looked on the GFS yesterday, But like you said, it's the initial mid level front coming in at like 700mb that gives the snow after midnight. Then the strong push with LLJ and approaching 850 WF comes in to fill precip, but the warm tongue encroaches big time to limit snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 We sort of had one of those 700 bands develop over BOS in 3/18/13. That was a weenie band that keep regenerating over the city. You'll need something like that to happen. Will was very upset about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Pa sub forum guy looking for info.................My daughter and other family is site seeing in the York Beach, Kennebunkport area what do you expect there? Snow and sleet for that area 4-6" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Snow and sleet for that area 4-6" or so Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Damn RGEM gives me almost nada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 12z GFS gfs has over a foot of snow in the lake George region that's way too high should be 2 inches of snow followed by a sleet fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 BTV WRF has a claSSIC COLD TUCK ICE UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 SPC WRF and BTV WRF sort of want to blossom a band nearby as mid level temps sky rocket. Real tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 GFs is weird, it has an initial weenie band developing almost over us around midnight tonight and then it lifts north into CNE and we almost get nothing for about 2-3 hours...then a second wave of intense WCB precip hits us between 09z-12z and gives several inches of snow before flipping. I wouldn't buy that scenario given other model guidance, but it's interesting in how it bends back the 850 WF for a time to really assist in the lift after 09z. Saw what your describing talked about on Ch 5 news this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I have some family driving to Vermont for a ski vacation today plans made months ago.Talk about luck because there has been no snow here or there, envious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 GGEM and RGEM hopefully have an idea up here because they actually shunt the 750mb warming to the east...IP does get up here but it comes up from the north and then hits resistance and gets shoved east. We get very marginal at H85-H7 for a while but its not necessarily a slam dunk +2 or +3C warm layer on the RGEM/GGEM. Should be interesting to see how it shakes out. I've got 4-6" at the ski area of snow and sleet before tapering to freezing drizzle. Would like to be in southern Quebec though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 GGEM and RGEM hopefully have an idea up here because they actually shunt the 750mb warming to the east...IP does get up here but it comes up from the north and then gets shoved east. We get very marginal at H85-H7 for a while but its not necessarily a slam dunk +2 or +3C warm layer. Should be interesting to see how it shakes out. I've got 4-6" at the ski area of snow and sleet before tapering to freezing drizzle. The GGEM/RGEM/NAM thump is interesting though with how quick and heavy it moves in. cmc_snow_acc_neng_8.png Montreal jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Fugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Montreal jackpot Yeah... Jay Peak to Sugarloaf axis should do very nicely. I'm hopeful we can hang on as long as possible and get the good front end burst to verify. I'm off tomorrow but may need to wake up at the normal 4am time to watch the thump, lol. Just 3-4 hours of 1"/hr would feel like a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I'm at whiteface ground is white at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Agree. What are you debating with me? lol I think just regarding initial thump. But we're on same page. Our locales should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Holy crap at the absolute scalping for NE MA around 12z tomorrow morning on the NAM. It is -10C at 850 and like +2C at 750, lol. In fact, it's so cold around 850, you might get dendrite production underneath the pellets. Good, Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I was hoping that initial band would happen earlier and that lull would be further south. That's how it looked on the GFS yesterday, But like you said, it's the initial mid level front coming in at like 700mb that gives the snow after midnight. Then the strong push with LLJ and approaching 850 WF comes in to fill precip, but the warm tongue encroaches big time to limit snow.wasnt there a storm that torched 700 last year early on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 wasnt there a storm that torched 700 last year early on? The 1/24 storm got pellets near Hubby and Ray I think, but this is much different. Strong 850-700 frontogenesis moves in after 9z, but the problem is that we may see this develop a little too late for even NE MA. I'd rather be up near Haverhill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I was never too interested in this one but thought we could get our first inch of snow, may very well have to wait awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 HRRR simulated radar for precip types at 3-hour intervals. 3am... 6am... 9am... Precipitation totals through 9am (last radar image)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Euro is in the gfs camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.