ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Holy crap at the absolute scalping for NE MA around 12z tomorrow morning on the NAM. It is -10C at 850 and like +2C at 750, lol. In fact, it's so cold around 850, you might get dendrite production underneath the pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Holy crap at the absolute scalping for NE MA around 12z tomorrow morning on the NAM. It is -10C at 850 and like +2C at 750, lol. In fact, it's so cold around 850, you might get dendrite production underneath the pellets. Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 It's too bad initial forcing is so far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I don't think you have much to worry.Over .50 of ice . We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The NCAR WRF ensembles are very bullish on ZR potential. In fact, they have >0.75" of ice accretion in the foothills of the Berkshires. Here's the ensemble mean ZR accumulation and a forecasting sounding around Union, CT for 15z Tuesday. Given the anomalously warm mid level temperatures (500mb heights nearly 570dm) and a very well timed strong/cold/high high over Maine you have to think that this could be a pretty solid icing event in many areas. At least locally the GFS/NAM/Euro have all trended warmer overnight with little snow and a pretty quick transition to ZR. And the current NWS point and click for Enfield does not even mention ZR, it goes right from snow and sleet to rain, it really makes you wonder sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Holy crap at the absolute scalping for NE MA around 12z tomorrow morning on the NAM. It is -10C at 850 and like +2C at 750, lol. In fact, it's so cold around 850, you might get dendrite production underneath the pellets. Hubb to dendrite to Maine all ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Over .50 of ice . We take Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Over .50 of ice . We take It just has to be over the top, push the envelope of reality with you, If it's not a thump of snow than we must have heavy ice, something to satisfy the unquenchable desire for damage and destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Hubb to dendrite to Maine all ftwNaso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Naso much Enjoy your 1-2". Hopefully the glaze locks it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Over .50 of ice . We take Ice storm warnings hoisted with the afternoon update from BOX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Hubb to dendrite to Maine all ftw NAM is mostly sleet here. I really hope it's just a couple degrees C too warm up in that H75 layer. This blows. Date: 24 hour NAM valid 12Z TUE 29 DEC 15 Station: 43.43,-71.62 Latitude: 43.43 Longitude: -71.62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 221 SFC 999 226 -4.7 -6.8 85 2.2 -5.4 84 13 268.5 268.9 267.8 274.7 2.28 2 950 621 -8.3 -8.6 98 0.3 -8.4 93 25 268.8 269.2 267.7 274.5 2.10 3 900 1041 -9.2 -9.4 98 0.2 -9.2 118 42 272.1 272.4 269.8 277.8 2.09 4 850 1480 -11.7 -11.9 99 0.2 -11.7 137 43 273.9 274.2 270.5 279.0 1.81 5 800 1950 -2.1 -2.3 99 0.2 -2.2 185 52 288.9 289.6 281.5 300.5 4.04 6 750 2468 2.5 2.5 100 0.1 2.5 212 80 299.3 300.4 287.9 317.4 6.10 7 700 3024 -0.0 -0.0 100 0.0 -0.0 226 84 302.5 303.5 288.4 318.9 5.46 8 650 3616 -2.1 -2.3 99 0.1 -2.2 242 76 306.6 307.5 289.3 321.9 4.99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 NAM is mostly sleet here. I really hope it's just a couple degrees C too warm up in that H75 layer. This blows. Date: 24 hour NAM valid 12Z TUE 29 DEC 15 Station: 43.43,-71.62 Latitude: 43.43 Longitude: -71.62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 221 SFC 999 226 -4.7 -6.8 85 2.2 -5.4 84 13 268.5 268.9 267.8 274.7 2.28 2 950 621 -8.3 -8.6 98 0.3 -8.4 93 25 268.8 269.2 267.7 274.5 2.10 3 900 1041 -9.2 -9.4 98 0.2 -9.2 118 42 272.1 272.4 269.8 277.8 2.09 4 850 1480 -11.7 -11.9 99 0.2 -11.7 137 43 273.9 274.2 270.5 279.0 1.81 5 800 1950 -2.1 -2.3 99 0.2 -2.2 185 52 288.9 289.6 281.5 300.5 4.04 6 750 2468 2.5 2.5 100 0.1 2.5 212 80 299.3 300.4 287.9 317.4 6.10 7 700 3024 -0.0 -0.0 100 0.0 -0.0 226 84 302.5 303.5 288.4 318.9 5.46 8 650 3616 -2.1 -2.3 99 0.1 -2.2 242 76 306.6 307.5 289.3 321.9 4.99 The inversion between 850 and 750 is about as ridiculous as I have ever seen in an event like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The inversion between 850 and 750 is about as ridiculous as I have ever seen in an event like this. Yeah...I'll be snowing tomorrow morning with the H85-H7 154dm thickness up around 1st Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Over .50 of ice . We take I suspect icing down there will not be too much of an issue as the antecedent temps are not too cool. We're a little better up here in that department, but we'll likely have more in the way of ip than zr. 25.5/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Ice storm warnings hoisted with the afternoon update from BOX?Hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 RGEM sandblasts a lot of SNE and CNE... CNE does get decent snow though before the flip...and nice gradient in Essex county, MA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Still can't shake the model differences quite yet...GFS coming in with a pretty easy snow sounding at BOS at 12z tomorrow. That's definitely different from NAM and RGEM. Esp NAM which seems to be the warmest well aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 mentioned in the other thread that is eerily portending a short duration major ice problem - i don't think NWS Boston has this conceptualized very well - not per reading their AFDs from earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The difference at KCON for 750mb at 12z tomorrow between the NAM and GFS is 6C....that is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 With this nascent polar high positioned as modeled, auto correct all surface features S - this is way too warm (very most likely) in the 925mb sigma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Boston gets clipped on developing leading edge band, but probably not enough time. Might work out in far nrn Essex county though, places like Haverhill etc. Definitely some differences in soundings from NAM to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 With this nascent polar high positioned as modeled, auto correct all surface features S - this is way too warm (very most likely) in the 925mb sigma I agree models are too quick to warm in the 128-495 region. Key is how quickly winds turn east, but I think most models are too quick to warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Boston gets clipped on developing leading edge band, but probably not enough time. Might work out in far nrn Essex county though, places like Haverhill etc. Definitely some differences in soundings from NAM to GFS. If GFS is right, it rips N of the pike between 09z and 12z, just north of the 850-800 warm front...you can see the bent back heights a bit. But it's the coldest model right now keeping even ORH-BOS all snow through 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 If GFS is right? Good luck with that if those hoping for snow are relying on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Still can't shake the model differences quite yet...GFS coming in with a pretty easy snow sounding at BOS at 12z tomorrow. That's definitely different from NAM and RGEM. Esp NAM which seems to be the warmest well aloft. RGEM has been the most robust model up here for two days now. It gives us like 0.8" of QPF as snow in 6-hours through 15z before mixing. I'll believe this when I see it, I can't remember a SWFE that had a 8" thump here before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I agree models are too quick to warm in the 128-495 region. Key is how quickly winds turn east, but I think most models are too quick to warm up. I think/believe a serious ice and sleet issue takes place... That wind is going lock N west of a obvious coastal boundary and there is going to be a bout a 10 F differential across 5 or less miles extending from about west Essex or far NE Middlesex straight down to almost PVD! has the world gone mad? seriously...old lessons and known climo seems to be escaping the meme here for that type of NEW polar high and deepressed DPs advecting carte blanche below these IB pulses... my goodness. we'll see i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 If GFS is right? Good luck with that if those hoping for snow are relying on that Looks like a nice dump for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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