nzucker Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Extraordinarily subjective. Remember, the cold in the mid levels is pedestrian to begin with and it abating as the high slides east because there is no block (NAO) to impeded it. Unwise to generalize. How did NYC do in Dec 2007 and 2008 with a positive NAO??? I had 10" in Dec 2007 just 80 miles north of NYC in Poughkeepsie. The immediate suburbs saw a few inches for sure. I remember a snow/sleet event in Dobbs after that, too. Dec 2008 was a very snowy month in Dobbs Ferry. Had 8" from 12/19/08 SWFE that pounded 12+ in Vermont (NYC got 4-5"), then got another 2.5" snow plus significant sleet on 12/21/08 SWFE (abput 1" in City), which also pounded north. The 1/28/09 SWFE had 6.5" in Dobbs Ferry, a few inches in City, 13" in Middlebury. NYC suburbs did well in 08-09, 45" in Dobbs Ferry, Central Park around climo. Other good recent SWFEs were 3-5-15 and 3-19-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Has NYC even had a frost yet? Lowest temp has been 32 twice so yeah especially the outer boroughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 why you being snotty? All he is saying is that sometimes not all SWFEs are snowless in NYC , 3-5-15 being the most recent example Someone has to be the resident alpha male Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I had 10" in Dec 2007 just 80 miles north of NYC in Poughkeepsie. The immediate suburbs saw a few inches for sure. I remember a snow/sleet event in Dobbs after that, too. Dec 2008 was a very snowy month in Dobbs Ferry. Had 8" from 12/19/08 SWFE that pounded 12+ in Vermont (NYC got 4-5"), then got another 2.5" snow plus significant sleet on 12/21/08 SWFE (abput 1" in City), which also pounded north. The 1/28/09 SWFE had 6.5" in Dobbs Ferry, a few inches in City, 13" in Middlebury. NYC suburbs did well in 08-09, 45" in Dobbs Ferry, Central Park around climo. Other good recent SWFEs were 3-5-15 and 3-19-13. Right. I had like 34". Obviously you missed most. I never said that absolutely never produce in NYC, what I did say is that this one would not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Someone has to be the resident alpha male Happy New Year, friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Luckily this event should kick off a legitimate wintry stretch. I will be in PA until 1/11 so I should see another decent snowfall for sure. I think the rising heights in western Canada combined with the huge Kara block will cause a nice pattern. Looks like the GFS has a lot of northern stream energy moving through, could get a clipper or redeveloper with the jet screaming through Manitoba/Saskatchewan. And Ray, this storm was modeled much colder. I have been surprised at the warm trend given the powerful high. Early snowfall maps showed 1-3" for NYC/S Coast, 4-8" from the Catskills to BOS, and 8-12" for NNE. Now they are talking nothing for NYC and only an inch in the Catskills+Poconos. Usually storms with big highs trend colder. Not sure if this storm is an exception or the models aren't "seeing" the cold. This storm also strengthened early over the Southwest and S Plains whereas better SWFEs were more wrapping up in the OH valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Luckily this event should kick off a legitimate wintry stretch. I will be in PA until 1/11 so I should see another decent snowfall for sure. I think the rising heights in western Canada combined with the huge Kara block will cause a nice pattern. Looks like the GFS has a lot of northern stream energy moving through, could get a clipper or redeveloper with the jet screaming through Manitoba/Saskatchewan. And Ray, this storm was modeled much colder. I have been surprised at the warm trend given the powerful high. Early snowfall maps showed 1-3" for NYC/S Coast, 4-8" from the Catskills to BOS, and 8-12" for NNE. Now they are talking nothing for NYC and only an inch in the Catskills+Poconos. Usually storms with big highs trend colder. Not sure if this storm is an exception or the models aren't "seeing" the cold. This storm also strengthened early over the Southwest and S Plains whereas better SWFEs were more wrapping up in the OH valley. I know, and I posted that his would happen, to what degree and why. Perhaps it was coincidence...wouldn't be the first time. Anyway, good luck. I hope it busts south for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Right. I had like 34". Obviously you missed most. I never said that absolutely never produce in NYC, what I did say is that this one would not. I meant from that one storm. I think it was 12/16/07. We had a couple smaller events in Poughkeepsie so probably 15-18" monthly. Too bad the rest of the winter had the rain/snow line in Kingston because we weren't off to a bad start. Extreme cold in March 2008 was also wasted. I worked in campus patrol and had to do a lot of shifts on frigid nights. It was low teens in mid March a bunch of times. No snow that March though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I meant from that one storm. I think it was 12/16/07. We had a couple smaller events in Poughkeepsie so probably 15-18" monthly. Too bad the rest of the winter had the rain/snow line in Kingston because we weren't off to a bad start. Extreme cold in March 2008 was also wasted. I worked in campus patrol and had to do a lot of shifts on frigid nights. It was low teens in mid March a bunch of times. No snow that March though. Yes, some work out, some don't. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I know, and I posted that his would happen, to what degree and why. Perhaps it was coincidence...wouldn't be the first time. Anyway, good luck. I hope it busts south for you. 0z GFS still looks meh...the models have lost that big band of omega that originally stretched across PA as well as being warmer. GFS still mild, 10C up to CT/MA border. Much of what falls will wash away, so sort of meaningless.This one hurts less since the JAN pattern looks productive. Once it gets colder, NE PA elevations are great for rotting lake effect and clippers. Had 11" from a clipper in Jan '11, valley near Scranton got 1"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 0z GFS still looks meh...the models have lost that big band of omega that originally stretched across PA as well as being warmer. GFS still mild, 10C up to CT/MA border. Much of what falls will wash away, so sort of meaningless. This one hurts less since the JAN pattern looks productive. Once it gets colder, NE PA elevations are great for rotting lake effect and clippers. Had 11" from a clipper in Jan '11, valley near Scranton got 1"... Yea, you should clean up imo.....not to mention elevation is usually big in el nino seasons. Should be fun. I didn't mean to offend you, Nate....I just enjoy debating sarcastically and passionately. I don't take anything here personally, and hopefully no one else does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Again, high pressure means nothing when your 700 low is in Michigan. You can have a 4000mb high and still taint when mid levels are in that location. Not sure why people don't get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Again, high pressure means nothing when your 700 low is in Michigan. You can have a 4000mb high and still taint when mid levels are in that location. Not sure why people don't get that. Yes, nor does elevation mean anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 It's more than skin....heat from a few feet down transfers to the top. At least BOX most think so Sent from my HTC One it's trash. They all said the same thing in Oct 11 too. Late Dec is a new one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Usually though NYC sees snow in these, even if it's just 1-2 inches it's fairly unusual for them to start as sleet or rain if a high is positioned to the north like thisI don't understand this. I have many of these events where SNE gets minimal wintry wx out of them at all. Sometimes I rain and IZG gets a little front ender. It's not like the cold and forcing cares where NYC is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yes, nor does elevation mean anything... In terms of snow, but maybe not necessarily wintery precipitation. Almost always in these situations the coldest air is at 925mb, so 1500ft could be much different than 300ft in terms of freezing rain and sleet accruals in cold wedge situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Well that was an ugly RGEM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 In terms of snow, but maybe not necessarily wintery precipitation. Almost always in these situations the coldest air is at 925mb, so 1500ft could be much different than 300ft in terms of freezing rain and sleet accruals in cold wedge situations. He was talking about high pressure making it colder and thus snowier. It doesn't work like that all the time, especially when the warmer air aloft is so high up. You also have the parent low helping turn the flow easterly so even in NE PA it will warm a bit. The better ageostrophic flow is up in Maine and NH. I do think models are too warm in MA, especially nrn ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 0z GFS still looks meh...the models have lost that big band of omega that originally stretched across PA as well as being warmer. GFS still mild, 10C up to CT/MA border. Much of what falls will wash away, so sort of meaningless. This one hurts less since the JAN pattern looks productive. Once it gets colder, NE PA elevations are great for rotting lake effect and clippers. Had 11" from a clipper in Jan '11, valley near Scranton got 1"... My uncle has a great house at 1900' in Susquehanna county down the block from elk mountain. Does extremely well snow wise. Pushing 100" a year. Catches the tail end of lake effect and just east enough to get in on nor'easters. I think this event is a bust for you and him. Elevation will not mean much with 850s in bad shape. This is really a get closer to the high aka eastern New England event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Ggem colder snowier in Ma NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Ggem colder snowier in Ma NH GGEM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 GGEM lolconcur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Well that was an ugly RGEM run. rgem_snow_acc_neng_17.png Remember 2 days ago when that area of pink was along I-84? Now it's way up in the St. Lawrence Valley from Montreal to Quebec City. Amazing how we go from an I-84 event to a 401 corridor event. Modeling still has a long ways to go. While the RGEM is probably too warm, this event has kind of disintegrated. The models lost the heavy omega in the frontal band and develop it later after 850s warm...the high slides east fast and the parent low went from IN to IL. Entirely possible NNE gets only advisory snows even though 48 hrs ago they were a lock for a warning. Might not be much of anything Pike south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Also this event was on models for a really long time. We started talking about this as like a Day 8 storm. Kudos to the guidance for picking it up early, but because guidance had it so long, we talked about as if it were closer than it really was. It started trending warmer around Day 4 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 While I may have sounded excited about the GFS showing snowfall for CHH, I didn't quite believe it, it still shows 3" of snow for CHH, but a possible OES few snow showers are possible this morning across the Outer Cape Cod region, cloud streets are intensifying over Cape Cod Bay and to the north of Provincetown, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Cloud streets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yes they are the clouds that form over water in street like formations within the wind direction it is flowing. Also the 6z GFS is colder than previously, I believe, waiting for soundings on coolwx.com before confirmation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 What falls as snow will be heavy. Fact, not debatable. Snow growth is another matter, but it isn't very important with the 1-2"/hr rates. Pretty irrelevant. Were you driving on 12/13/07?? Guarantee there will be heavy WCB thump but there will be screwage aloft somewhere. Hope it aint you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Don't think the RGEM specialty is apparently within SWFE's. I'm riding Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Euro is above 0c aloft for many not long after precip starts. South of pike is really going to struggle. My guess here is 4". My range is 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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