Late December miracle early next week!?

[powderfreak]

Euro with warning criteria snow possible for CNE/NNE. Stays the course.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro gives south of pike 2-4 then a good amount of ice to lock up pack with sleet to good amount of zr ftw

[OceanStWx]

Euro gives south of pike 2-4 then a good amount of ice to lock up pack with sleet to good amount of zr ftw

 

Pretty blanket statement there. I'd say verbatim is probably 2-3 your area and 4 at the Pike, but south of you would be uglier than you make it sound.

[Guvna]

Ding ding ding we have a weenie!

I know...I chuckled at that comment myself.

[ORH_wxman]

For a quick rundown of 00z guidance for SNE....GFS is the least snowy (prob only an inch or two for most of SNE except perhaps slightly more in spots north of the pike, then the Euro which Chris did a good job explaining above...prob solid high end advisory snows in the pike region tapering to an inch or two south of a HFD-PVD line, to the GGEM which was pretty much all snow for SNE and would be a solid warning criteria event.

 

Keep in mind that precip doesn't start on these runs until roughly 132-138 hours out, so it's a forecast that can still change a monumental amount.

 

 

I think the faster the SW energy ejects in this scenario, the snower the solution just because of the timing of the northern stream confluence. GGEM gets the energy the furthest east out of the guidance so it is able to run the storm more underneath the high rather than west of it.

[SnowGoose69]

For a quick rundown of 00z guidance for SNE....GFS is the least snowy (prob only an inch or two for most of SNE except perhaps slightly more in spots north of the pike, then the Euro which Chris did a good job explaining above...prob solid high end advisory snows in the pike region tapering to an inch or two south of a HFD-PVD line, to the GGEM which was pretty much all snow for SNE and would be a solid warning criteria event.

 

Keep in mind that precip doesn't start on these runs until roughly 132-138 hours out, so it's a forecast that can still change a monumental amount.

 

 

I think the faster the SW energy ejects in this scenario, the snower the solution just because of the timing of the northern stream confluence. GGEM gets the energy the furthest east out of the guidance so it is able to run the storm more underneath the high rather than west of it.

 

You'd think with that energy coming into the West Coast that the system wouldn't dig as much as the Euro wants to do over TX/OK.   I would not be surprised if the Euro ultimately begins to eject faster.

[mahk_webstah]

Ran some grids using 2/3 Euro to 1/3 GFS for temps aloft next week. Straight even blend of all models for QPF and PoP. GFS snow ratios.

 

That far out I was the only office with any QPF grids, so that's why you can't see anything outside my borders.

 

Obviously this is a bit generalized due to the time range, but you get the idea. There was also a strip of icing (around 0.10") through southern NH and up the ME coast.

 

TueSnow.png

I would happily take 6 inches of snow ending as a glaze to start the pack growth.  That would be a great first storm, especially if there is more to come.

[mahk_webstah]

Your HPC humper here...

 

I can't really decipher this overnight HPC discussion, except that he isn't "buying" the cold dump into the northeast?  Reading it is difficult "somewhat" because he is putting quotation marks around everything, like a teenager.  Could anyone "interpret" this?

 

FIRST...THE OUTCOME OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. FIND IT HARD TO
IMAGINE A 582 DM CONTOUR (A VALUE THAT MARKS ITS 'PERIPHERY') WILL
BE ERODED OVER THE NORTHEAST---LIKE THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO ACCOMPLISH
ON MONDAY. WHICH IS WHY IT IS HARD TO USE ITS DETERMINISTIC RUN
BEYOND 29/12Z. THE GEFS IS THE JUST AS 'TROUGHY'. SEEMS LIKE THE
PATTERN LATELY HAS BEEN TO GENERATE BETTER ENERGY FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. THE FACT THAT THE 23/12Z RUN OF
THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 23/12Z ECMWF --- WITH THE FOUR CORNERS
LOW (DAYS 3-4) AND ITS ENERGY TRANSITING THE GREAT LAKES---TENDS
TO ERODE ITS SOLUTION DOWNSTREAM (AS A STRONGER WAVE) OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE.

UNTIL THEN...COULD NOT FIND ANYTHING REALLY WRONG WITH THE GFS ---
AND ITS TRACK SOLUTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES (OUR DAY4-5 WINTER CYCLONE). IT IS A DRIER SOLUTION ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DAY 3 THROUGH 5 PERIOD---BUT HAS
NOT WAVERED WHATSOEVER WITH THE LONG-DURATION WINDS FUNNELING IN
BEHIND THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE. CYCLONE TRACK IS VERY REASONABLE
JUST A TAD TOO FAST. WILL ASSUME THAT THE LOCAL NWS OFFICES ALONG
THE STORM TRACK--- HAVE A BETTER FOCUS/HANDLE ON WHAT THE GFS
FAVORS VERSUS THE ECMWF CONCERNING IMPACTS INSIDE OF THE 48 HOUR
POINT. WILL AT LEAST OFFER SOME OPTIONS HERE.

THE SECOND REGION OF THE COUNTRY --- AND WHERE THE ECENS/ECMWF
SEEMS TO 'SHINE' IS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS---AND A 'FOLLOW-UP'
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE PACIFIC TROUGH FOR DAY 5-6. THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS ACTUALLY LOOKS BETTER TONIGHT (ITS 23/12Z RUN
AND 23/18Z RUN). AND IF IT WASN'T SO FAST AND EAST (OVER QUEBEC)
WITH THE DAY4-5 WINTER CYCLONE --- IT MIGHT BE WORTH USING TO
DEPICT THE MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE 'FOLLOW-UP' WAVE EXITING THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AROUND 30/00Z. THE 23/12Z CANADIAN IS WAY TOO
SLOW AND TOO SEPARATED BY 30/00Z BETWEEN WYOMING AND ARIZONA TO BE
OF MUCH USE. UNFORTUNATELY...THE NATIONAL BLEND DID NOT OFFER MUCH
IN THE WAY OF 'HIGHER' POPS---WHEN IT SEEMS THE SYSTEM IS
'REAL'---BUT THE 12Z GUIDANCE THINKS IT WILL BE A MOISTURE-STARVED
SYSTEM.

AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST---THE THIRD WAVE IN THIS SEQUENCE...MOVING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF IS NOT PERFECT---BUT LOOKS MUCH
LIKE ITS ECENS MEAN AND MAINTAINS A 'COMPACT-NESS' THAT SEEMS TO
FIT WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE DECEMBER FLOW PATTERN (THIS
PARTICULAR EL NINO SCENARIO)---A CONCENTRATED PRECIPITATION MAKER
AND LAST OF THE 'TRACK-ABLE' SHORTWAVES IDENTIFIED YESTERDAY. HERE
AGAIN, THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM APPEARS TOO WEAK TO BECOME A SURFACE
REFLECTION --- ONLY A SUB-1024 MB LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A SUNDAY-MONDAY CYCLONE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE TRACK MIGRATES
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY---THEN BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AS IT COMES INTO THE FAST-MOVING CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CANADA.

EXTREME RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
CYCLONE---AND AGREE WITH OUR PREVIOUS WPC (DAY4-5 QPF) ON THE
DISTRIBUTIONS AND AMOUNTS. IT HAS BEEN A SIGNAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE OZARKS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTAIN
TWO MORE
SHORTWAVES---ALL HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WEST (SIERRA)...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...FOUR
CORNERS AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST---A CONTINUED MILD PATTERN BUT WET PERIOD FOR
THE SOUTHEAST WITH PERIODS OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NORTHEAST.

VOJTESAK

[moneypitmike]

Your HPC humper here...

 

I can't really decipher this overnight HPC discussion, except that he isn't "buying" the cold dump into the northeast?  Reading it is difficult "somewhat" because he is putting quotation marks around everything, like a teenager.  Could anyone "interpret" this?

 

 

LOL.

 

I'm feeling as good as I can this far out of having a couple inches and totally prepared for much of it to be washed away.  

 

Enjoy the torch today.

[powderfreak]

9km EURO (the one getting released in March) has a nice 10-18" from RT 2 northward over the next 10 days. 

 

Interesting to see the subtle differences between that and the current EURO. 

[codfishsnowman]

Move N of the Pike.

well that wasnt the answer the past several years but after last year I have just about given up rooting for big snows here....I just think this threat is a long ways away

[mahk_webstah]

9km EURO (the one getting released in March) has a nice 10-18" from RT 2 northward over the next 10 days. 

 

Interesting to see the subtle differences between that and the current EURO. 

say more!

[dryslot]

Ran some grids using 2/3 Euro to 1/3 GFS for temps aloft next week. Straight even blend of all models for QPF and PoP. GFS snow ratios.

That far out I was the only office with any QPF grids, so that's why you can't see anything outside my borders.

Obviously this is a bit generalized due to the time range, but you get the idea. There was also a strip of icing (around 0.10") through southern NH and up the ME coast.

TueSnow.png

Lol on the title of the map

[mahk_webstah]

_{I think I know who wrote this....only phrase missing is "classic SWFE"}

 

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY S/WV WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD

FRONT THRU THE REGION. FOR WHAT SEEMS LIKE THE FIRST TIME IN A
LONG WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS. THAT/S RIGHT...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRES THAT
BUILDS IN WITH THESE TEMPS IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG ON
BOTH GEFS AND ECMWF EPS. MODEL TIMING IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
FOR THIS RANGE...ARRIVING AROUND 18Z TUE...SO I HAVE NO PROBLEM
GOING WITH LIKELY POP. WITHOUT GETTING INTO TOO MUCH DETAIL FOR
DAY 6...CAREFUL EXAMINATION OF TEMP TRENDS ALOFT SHOW A PRETTY
CLASSIC SIGNAL FOR SNWFL TO MIX FOR A LARGE PART OF THE REGION.
HIGH HEIGHTS IN THE E IS THE TENDENCY STILL IN THE MID
LEVELS...AND THAT WILL WANT TO SEND ANY SYSTEM TO OUR W. THE
RESULTING WAA OVERHEAD WILL BRING IN WARMTH FROM THE SW. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS EVOLUTION...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT THAN THE COLDER CMC. AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO FAR OUT
TO START HAMMERING OUT EXACT SNWFL AMOUNTS...BUT THE CHANCES FOR A
MEASURABLE SNWFL ARE GROWING AND BECOMING MORE LIKELY. ANOTHER 24
HOURS AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RANGE WHERE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HISTORICALLY STARTS TO PERFORM WELL.

ONE THING THAT IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THAT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES
AND PRECIP MOVING IN...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS ALREADY KEYING ON THIS AND
DROPPED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WHEN BLENDED IN.
IF SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPS AS SUGGESTS BY OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THESE COOLER SFC TEMPS COULD CONTINUE INTO
WED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TUCKING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I see no reason to stray from the 2-5" n of the pike that I went with yesterday....standard SWFE totals.

[Damage In Tolland]

I see no reason to stray from the 2-5" n of the pike that I went with yesterday.

I don't think Scooter is a fan of this one for most of SNe (for snowfall) ..ice..maybe

[moneypitmike]

I see no reason to stray from the 2-5" n of the pike that I went with yesterday....standard SWFE totals.

 

I'm anticipating an earlier change-over (or perhaps better described as more precip after the changeover occurs) than is typical in SWFE.  Also, the changeover here will be to rain rather than zl which is more typical.

 

My two cents at this stage.  Lots of time go to though.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm anticipating an earlier change-over (or perhaps better described as more precip after the changeover occurs) than is typical in SWFE.  Also, the changeover here will be to rain rather than zl which is more typical.

 

My two cents at this stage.  Lots of time go to though.

Most interior SNE never sniffs 32 if Euro is right

[CoastalWx]

I don't think Scooter is a fan of this one for most of SNe (for snowfall) ..ice..maybe

 

??

[40/70 Benchmark]

??

That is his way of passively aggressively coercing you into explicitly endorsing the season's first snowfall across the area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm anticipating an earlier change-over (or perhaps better described as more precip after the changeover occurs) than is typical in SWFE.  Also, the changeover here will be to rain rather than zl which is more typical.

 

My two cents at this stage.  Lots of time go to though.

Based on what?

[CoastalWx]

That is his way of passively aggressively coercing you into explicitly endorsing the season's first snowfall across the area.

 

Yeah...I figured.  Let him sweat.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Based on what?

Warm tongue aloft?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Warm tongue aloft?

Yes, but he said an earlier change over than usual in SWFE...I know what causes it, by why is it earlier than usual here in this case??

Sounds like a manifestation of some defense mechanism born of anxiety, to me lol

[dryslot]

A more typical SWFE usually involves a good thump on the front end as it gets in here usually earlier then modeled before a changeover on the back end before ending

[dryslot]

Yes, but he said an earlier change over than usual in SWFE...I know what causes it, by why is it earlier than usual here in this case??

Sounds like a manifestation of some defense mechanism born of anxiety, to me lol

Probably due to lack of qpf.

[Damage In Tolland]

Based on what?

Not understanding weather

[Ginx snewx]

You'd think with that energy coming into the West Coast that the system wouldn't dig as much as the Euro wants to do over TX/OK. I would not be surprised if the Euro ultimately begins to eject faster.

Yes seems that could be an outcome. Will however is not one to ask about ejecting faster. Lol Hi Meghan. Chris did a fantastic job breaking this down. As for James, guys go easy, just an enthusiastic kid learning as we go.

[Bostonseminole]

should be in NAM's wheelhouse in another 130 hrs.

[Randy4Confluence]

should be in NAM's wheelhouse in another 130 hrs.

Awesome hey? Who would have thunk it?